Climate change will force mass migration

US standards on NO2 remain

After a review of scientific evidence, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on 14 July proposed to retain the current national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂).

The NAAQS for NO₂ are a 1-hour standard at 100 parts per billion (ppb), based on the 98th percentile of the annual distribution of daily maximum 1-hour NO₂ concentrations averaged over three years, and an annual standard at a level of 53 ppb.

More info at: www.epa.gov/no2-pollution/primary-national-ambient-air-quality-standards...

Below 1.5°C the only hope for coral reefs

The Guardian reports that UNESCO has concluded that the only hope for coral reefs is to keep global temperature increases below 1.5°C. Countries with responsibility over world heritage-listed coral reefs should adopt ambitious climate change targets, aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions to levels that would keep global temperature increases to just 1.5°C, the UN agency responsible for overseeing world heritage sites has said.

At a meeting of Unesco’s world heritage committee in July 2017 a decision was adopted that clarified and strengthened the responsibility of countries that have custodianship over world heritage-listed coral reefs. Until now, most countries have interpreted their responsibility over such reefs as implying they need to protect them from local threats such as water pollution and overfishing. But between 2014 and 2017, reefs in every major reef region bleached, with much of the coral dying, in the worst global bleaching event in recorded history. Over those three years, 21 of the 29 listed sites suffered severe or repeated heat stress.

Last June, Unesco published the first global assessment of climate change’s impacts on world heritage-listed reefs and it concluded that local efforts were “no longer sufficient” – stating that the only hope was to keep global temperature increases below 1.5°C. The new decision builds on that assessment, clarifying the responsibility of countries with custodianship over world heritage-listed coral reefs.

The decision adopted by the world heritage committee said it “reiterates the importance of state parties undertaking the most ambitious implementation of the Paris agreement”, which it noted meant pursuing efforts to limit global average temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/11/countries-with-coral...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/24/paris-agreements-15c...

Climate change will force mass migration

Asia Pacific is the most vulnerable region to climate change, Bangladesh is the country most at risk, and poor people are to be hit the hardest, prompting migration on a massive scale, a sobering report by the Asian Development Bank has found according to Eco-Business and other newspapers.

Massive migration is foreseen all over the world by the end of the century, with the Asia-Pacific region identified as the most vulnerable if the current climate change scenario does not improve.

“Migration is happening all the time, but with unabated global warming … we’ll have to move over a billion [people],” said Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of climate science research at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in a press conference last July.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the PIK released a joint report called “A Region at Risk: the Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific”, which showed that the region faces severe consequences for the environment, economy and human living conditions as a result of climate change.

http://www.eco-business.com/news/climate-change-will-force-mass-migratio...
https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/325251/region-risk-c...

Current air quality standards do not protect the public

A nationwide US study of more than 60 million senior citizens linked long-term exposure to two main smog pollutants – ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) – to an increased risk of premature death. The analysis found no sign of a “safe” level of pollution, below which the risk of dying early tapered off.

Harvard University scientists who conducted the study calculated that reducing fine particle pollution by 1 microgram per cubic metre (µg/m³) nationwide would save about 12,000 lives each year.

Another 1,900 lives would be saved annually by lowering ozone pollution by 1 part per billion (ppb), they found.

For PM_2.5, which has a legal limit of 1 2 µg/m3, they found that seniors faced an increased risk of premature death when exposed to as little as 5 µg/m3, the lowest amount they measured. For ozone, which has a limit of 70 ppb, they detected increased mortality at levels as low as 30 ppb, also the smallest concentration they measured.

The findings suggest that even though federal limits on the nation’s most widespread air pollutants are updated periodically based on scientific reviews required under the Clean Air Act, they are not strict enough to fully protect the public.

Source: LA Times, 28 June 2017
The article “Air pollution and mortality in the medicare population”. New England Journal of Medicine, June 2017. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1702747

Fossil gas must be phased out along with coal

The report by the research organisation Climate Action Tracker (CAT) contradicts projections that forecast an increase in natural gas consumption and criticises the fact “that governments and companies are staking significant investments in natural gas infrastructure on them, ignoring the increasing role of low-carbon alternatives, and the need to reduce emissions to combat climate change”.

“One example is China, where in 2016 the IEA projected renewables would rise to 7.2% of the power supply by 2020—but by the end of 2016 they had already reached 8%. Additionally, India and the Middle East are also seeing renewables rising much faster than mainstream projections,” says Niklas Höhne from the NewClimate Institute.

“Natural gas is often perceived as a ‘clean’ source of energy that complements variable renewable technologies. However, there are persistent issues with fugitive emissions during gas extraction and transport that show that gas is not as ‘clean’ as often thought,” according to Bill Hare of Climate Analytics. “Natural gas will disappear from the power sector in a Paris Agreement-compatible world, where emissions need to be around zero by mid-century.”

The report analysis states that “despite these developments, massive investments into LNG pipelines and terminals continue, even as the utilisation rates of such infrastructure are decreasing. For example, utilisation rates in US natural gas infrastructure are at 54%, and are even lower in Europe at 25%”.

“This overinvestment in natural gas infrastructure is likely to lead to either emissions overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C and 2°C goals – or a large number of stranded assets as the shift to cheaper renewables takes place, “concludes Andrzej Ancygier of Climate Analytics.

Compiled by Reinhold Pape

The report, titled “Foot off the gas: increased reliance on natural gas in the power sector risks an emissions lock-in” can be downloaded at: http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT-...

Who owns the world’s coal?

Phasing out the use of coal for power has been singled out as a vital step to meet the Paris Agreement – to date, over US$5 trillion of assets under management (AUM) has been committed to divest from coal under the banner of the global divestment movement.

A new study analyses in detail the ownership chains of the world’s thermal coal. It tracks the links between the coal reserves (the mines), the operating coal companies and the shareholders who own these companies. It shows roughly US$185 billion in shareholder value associated with 117 listed thermal coal producers/owners – including widely held shares such as BHP Billiton, Glencore and Berkshire Hathaway.

The report breaks down trends in ownership: divestment and pension funds, and coal-heavy investors. Over 500 investors have made pledges to divest from coal over the last decade. The study also looks at some of the largest pension funds that have made the most specific coal divestment statements and assesses their progress, finding good compliance with the coal-specific divestment statements from investors aggregating US$1.4 trillion AUM.

The remaining shareholders of thermal coal fit in three categories: strategic investors from Asia; BlackRock and Vanguard, who own assets through the sheer size of their global holdings, and mid-size asset managers and funds that may see opportunity in US resurgence and Asian growth.

https://influencemap.org/report/Clarifying-carbon-ownership-8cb210f5b664...

Effects of coal mining in Bulgaria

For years Pernik, in southwestern Bulgaria, has topped the charts for the city with the highest air pollution in the EU. People suffer diseases and complain about the high levels of particulate matter in the atmosphere, but still continue to burn the cheap local “kyumyur” coal in winter. Bulgarian journalist Dimitar Sabev has investigated the impact of ill-regulated coal mining on life in Pernik. The city, famous for its metallurgy, suffocates in smoke while ghostly concessionaires trample the law and pocket millions, writes Sabev. Locals say that there are at least 300 colliery holes in the abandoned mines in the outskirts of the city.

Read the full story here: http://www.novinite.com/articles/178396/Bulgaria’s+Pernik%3A+Abandoned...

New NOx deal in Norway

A new NOx Agreement between 15 business organisations and the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment has been set up for the period 2018–2025. It is an extension of previous agreements, dating back to 2008. Companies that join the business organisations’ NOx Fund are entitled to an exemption from paying a tax of NOK 21.59 (€2.3) per kg of NOx emitted. Instead most companies pay a much smaller fee of NOK 4 per kg NOx (€0.43) to the NOx Fund.

The NOx Fund grants support to cost-effective NOx-reducing measures such as the installation and operation of NOx catalysts (SCR) on ships, the shift to gas and electricity in shipping, and energy efficiency in the oil and gas industry. Through the agreement, companies are committing to jointly achieve agreed annual NOx emission reductions – in the new agreement these reductions are getting gradually stricter, reaching 16,000 tonnes per year in 2024–2025.

The NOx Fund: www.nho.no/Prosjekter-og-programmer/NOx-fondet/The-NOx-fund/

Public consultation on MRV for shipping

EU regulation 757/2015 on monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of carbon dioxide emissions from maritime transport was adopted in 2015, and sets an EU-wide scheme for reporting monitored and verified data on shipping CO2 emissions applying to activities carried out from January 2018.

As the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in July 2017completed a new legal framework for a global data collection system (DCS) by adopting guidelines on data verification and database management, the European Commission is now considering alignment of the EU MRV with the IMO DCS by developing and presenting a legislative proposal to amend the EU MRV in 2018.

A stakeholder consultation is now open from 8 September to 1 December 2017, allowing parties to give their opinions on the effectiveness and potential impacts of such alignment.

Link: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/consultations/articles/0032_en

Demands for ban on combustion engine

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has voiced support for the idea of banning cars with internal combustion engines sometime in the future. A non-binding resolution of the German Bundesrat has called for a prohibition of new sales by 2030. Greenpeace Germany demands, that the sale stop should be introduced already in 2025. This is possible according to a study by Wuppertal Institute, titled “Mobility Szenario 2035”.

https://wupperinst.org/p/wi/p/s/pd/701/

Global ship emissions calculated

A new study by the Finnish Meteorological Institute provides detailed information on ship emissions by using real-time data on international shipping traffic. It calculated that global ship emissions in 2015 amounted to 831 million tonnes (Mt) of CO₂; 21 Mt of NOx; 9.7 Mt of SO₂ and 1.5 Mt of PM_2.5.

The highest emissions per unit area occurred in the following sea regions: Eastern and Southern China Seas; the sea areas in the south-eastern and southern Asia; the Red Sea; the Mediterranean; the North Atlantic near the European coast; the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea; and along the western coast of North America.

The study also considered emission hotspots, by evaluating the highest emission densities within limited areas, and found the highest emissions (within circles of 10 km) to occur in Singapore, Hong Kong, Antwerp, Shanghai, Los Angeles and Rotterdam.

The study “Global assessment of shipping emissions in 2015 on a high spatial and temporal resolution” by L. Johansson et al., was published in Atmospheric Environment in August 2017.

CAP not fit for purpose

Normally the European Commission conducts fitness checks on current policy to ensure that it delivers what it what it was designed for. However for the current Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) no fitness check has been conducted. For this reason the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) and BirdLife Europe have commissioned their own fitness check based on the same principles as the official audits: effectiveness, efficiency, internal coherence, external coherence, relevance and EU added value.

After scanning 275 scientific papers and reports they found that the CAP does show some positive effects, for example on farmers’ standard of living, and specific instruments show local and regional successes on biodiversity, ecosystem services, soil and water quality. However, the greater picture is one of an inefficient policy, where the most effective instruments are the least funded and their effects often cancelled out by other non-designated instruments.

They specifically note that the CAP has very limited effect on climate change mitigation, since livestock farming is over-proportionally subsidised and the policy does not consider the impacts on land-use change outside the EU, particularly through imported feedstock.

The lead author of the study, Guy Pe’er, concludes: “While the design and implementation of CAP instruments fails to meet current sustainability challenges, the good news is that the knowledge and tools needed to move towards a better and smarter CAP are available. What’s needed now is the political will to use them.”

Source: Is the CAP Fit for purpose? An evidence-based, rapid Fitness-Check assessment – Preliminary Summary of Key Outcomes Link: http://eeb.org/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?juwpfisadmin=false&action=wpfd&ta...

11% higher methane emissions from livestock

New estimates of methane emissions from livestock are 11 per cent higher than figures obtained using established methods for calculations based on the IPCC 2006 emission factors. The reasons for this is that the size and numbers of cattle has changed in many regions, as well as management practices. There has been an 8.4 per cent increase in enteric fermentation methane, and a 36.7 per cent increase in manure management methane.

The study includes updated information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. Based on this data, the researchers have been able to calculate new emission factors.

The new factors for enteric fermentation for dairy cattle are higher in all regions except Eastern Europe and most notably in Eastern/Southeastern Asia and Africa. Another significant result is that the factor for dairy cattle manure management has more than doubled in the US and Canada, because of an increase in manure managed in lagoon systems.

Source: Carbon Balance and Management, 29 September 2017, https://cbmjournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13021-017-0084-y

New regulation for organic farming

On 28 June the European Parliament and member states reached a preliminary agreement on new regulations for labelling of organic farming that will apply from 1 July 2020. This marked the end of three years of elaborate negotiations. One of the results was harmonised rules for imports from outside the EU, levelling the playing field for producers within the EU.

The compromise was made possible after scrapping a threshold for pesticide residues in crops. Several member states have been worried that producers would not dare convert to organic, because of fear of contamination from conventional neighbouring farms.

At the time, there were still several details to solve. A final approval in the Council and the Parliament is expected later this autumn.

ENDS Europe Daily, 29 June 2017

Beans for beef

What if everyone in the United States ate beans instead of beef? This quite simple dietary change would result in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 334 million tonnes, which corresponds to 75 per cent of the 2020 US reduction target. The researchers behind the calculation also found that it would free up 42 per cent of US crop land, which is approximately 1.6 times the size of California.
Replacing beef with cooked black beans would also reduce chronic disease burdens by improving micronutrient and fibre intakes, and reducing saturated fat intakes. The researchers conclude: “While not currently recognized as a climate policy option, the ‘beans for beef’ scenario offers significant climate change mitigation and other environmental benefits, illustrating the high potential of animal to plant food shifts.”

Source: FCRN Newsletter 7 September 2017, http://www.fcrn.org.uk/research-library/substituting-beans-beef-can-cont...

Cruise ships are big polluters

In its annual survey of cruise ships, the German environment group Nature and Biodiversity Conservation Union (NABU) found that no single ship has adequately reduced its environmental impact in 2017. Even worse, the cruise industry’s contempt for the health of its customers and port citizens is underlined by the fact that not one company responded to a simple Q&A supplied, NABU said.

“The environmental performance of cruise companies is lousy, as is their attitude to transparency. Last year the sector claimed 23 ships would be operating with soot filters. The truth is not a single filter is working at present,” said Dietmar Oeliger, head of transport policy at NABU.

According to NABU, a mid-size cruise ship burns as much as 150 tonnes of fuel each day, and emits as much particulate matter (PM) as one million cars. NABU is calling for a general ban on the use of heavy fuel oil on all ships worldwide and for all ships to install particulate filters and SCR catalysts to reduce emissions of PM and NOx, respectively.

Source: NABU press release, 5 September 2017 NABU: https://en.nabu.de