Technological advancements and policy reforms are paving the way for offshore wind, but are these efforts sufficient to replace fossil fuels at the pace required?
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions must be reduced by approximately 37 gigatonnes (Gt) from 2022 levels to reach net zero in the energy sector by 2050. Achieving this target will require a massive expansion of renewable energy alongside improvements in energy efficiency. In 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasised that wind and solar energy present the greatest potential for reducing CO2 emissions by 2030. This will demand a major transformation of energy systems and a substantial increase in renewable energy capacity.
Although renewables accounted for 83% of new annual generation capacity additions in 2022, totalling 295 gigawatts (GW), not all developments were positive. Fossil fuel subsidies reached record highs as governments sought to mitigate rising energy prices, and investment in fossil fuels during the year was double that of renewables. According to a 1.5°C-scenario developed by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) [1], global renewable generating capacity must exceed 33,000 GW by 2050. A detailed study has shown that wind turbines at the world’s best offshore sites could generate more than enough energy to meet global electricity demand. When factoring in the potential for floating offshore wind, it is estimated that offshore wind power could supply 18 times the current global energy demand.
Offshore wind power should play a crucial role in the energy mix, as it is one of the renewable technologies with the greatest potential for large-scale expansion. However, for this development to occur both swiftly and sustainably, several key considerations must be addressed.
Recent regulatory updates in the EU are poised to accelerate offshore wind deployment. One key development is the REPowerEU plan, which aims to rapidly reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels and accelerate the green transition. Another significant update is the revision of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED), which raised the renewables target to 42.5% by 2030 and introduced guidance for streamlining permit applications. A notable aspect of this revision is the introduction of Renewables Acceleration Areas (RAAs). As defined in RED III, RAAs are “areas particularly suitable to develop renewable energy projects, differentiating between technologies, and where the deployment of the specific type of renewable energy is not expected to have a significant environmental impact” (Article 15c 1(a)).
EU Member States have until February 2026 to designate Renewables Acceleration Areas (RAAs) as part of the broader spatial mapping required by May 2025 to meet their 2030 renewable energy targets. The aim is to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy across Europe by streamlining environmental permitting to one year for projects in RAAs and two years for those outside these areas. Additionally, the revised Trans-European Networks for Energy (TEN-E) Regulation includes provisions to scale up offshore renewable energy through coordinated long-term planning of offshore and onshore grids. The TEN-E rules also provide guidance on cross-border cost-sharing for the development of sea-basin offshore networks and establish points of contact to support the implementation of offshore grid projects. These new provisions are designed to facilitate hybrid offshore projects, which combine offshore generation and transmission capacity across multiple EU countries.
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) is responsible for developing and publishing strategic integrated offshore network development plans as part of the broader Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP).
The electricity market reform and the Grids Action Plan aim to enhance the integration of renewables into electricity networks. Additionally, the Net-Zero Industry Act seeks to boost the manufacturing capacity of wind as a key net-zero technology, while the Critical Raw Materials Act addresses challenges related to the EU’s dependence on third-country supplies.
In October 2023, the European Commission introduced two key initiatives to accelerate wind energy manufacturing and deployment in Europe: the European Wind Power Action Plan (COM/2023/669) and the Communication on
Achieving the EU’s Offshore Wind Ambitions (COM/2023/668). The European Wind Charter outlined a new commitment to reach 111 GW of offshore renewable energy capacity by 2030, significantly up from the 61 GW target set in the 2020 EU Offshore Renewable Energy Strategy. The 2050 target was also raised to approximately 317 GW. The Charter was signed by over 300 companies from the wind energy sector and includes 15 immediate actions to be implemented by national governments to drive progress.
Offshore wind is a highly effective and cost-efficient solution for supplying electricity to densely populated coastal areas, thanks to its offshore location, high energy output per square metre, and rapid scalability to gigawatt levels.
With its vast potential, offshore wind is expected to play a crucial role in the energy transition leading up to 2050.
Between 2010 and 2022, offshore wind capacity surged from 3.1 GW to 63.2 GW, marking a twentyfold increase. During the same period, global weighted-average total installed costs fell by 34%, from USD 5,217/kW to USD 3,461/kW, despite a peak of USD 5,975/kW in 2011. Technological advancements, including larger turbines with longer blades, greater hub heights, and installations farther offshore, have contributed to improved performance. Estimated lifetime capacity factors (the ratio of average output to maximum output) rose from 38% in 2010 to 45% in 2017, before settling at 42% in 2022.
These developments underscore the potential for substantial progress through research and development. Initially, offshore wind farms were located closer to shore in shallow waters, but advancements in technology and access to more consistent wind resources have pushed installations further offshore into deeper waters. This shift, particularly in areas beyond 50 metres in depth using floating platforms, opens new opportunities for countries with steep seabeds, such as Japan, China, the United States, and several in Europe. Despite this, Europe (including the UK, Denmark, and Germany) and Asia (notably China and Japan) continue to lead in offshore wind projects.
Currently, the global offshore wind market is smaller than the onshore market, with a total installed capacity of 63 GW as of 2022. According to IRENA’s Planned Energy Scenario (PES), global cumulative offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 275 GW by 2030 and nearly 1,200 GW by 2050. However, these projections still fall short of the targets set by IRENA’s 1.5°C-scenario, which calls for 494 GW by 2030 and 2,465 GW by 2050.
Europe has installed 34 GW of offshore wind capacity, with 19 GW in the EU-27, meeting 2% of the EU’s electricity demand last year. Offshore wind capacity factors are about 10% higher than those of onshore wind. Offshore wind accounted for 21% of new installations in Europe, with 3.8 GW of wind farm capacity connected to the grid. Nearly half of this new capacity was in the Netherlands (1.9 GW), followed by the UK (833 MW), France (360 MW), Denmark (344 MW), Germany (329 MW), and Norway (35 MW).
In 2023, Europe’s offshore wind industry added a record 4.2 GW of new capacity, a 40% increase over 2022. The trade association, WindEurope, estimates that around 5 GW of offshore wind will be built annually over the next three years [2]. Of the 4.2 GW of new capacity, 3 GW was in the EU, an increase of 2.1 GW year-on-year.
Offshore wind investments in Europe also hit a new record in 2023, with 30 billion euro raised across eight wind farms, financing 9 GW of new capacity. This surge follows a period of legal uncertainty and market intervention in 2022, which saw investments plummet to a historic low of 0.4 billion euro.
Commitments from EU Member States, and consequently the overall projected deployment of offshore wind in the EU, have surged in recent years, driven in part by increased cooperation between countries. This is exemplified by the five sea basin non-binding agreements signed in early 2023. The anticipated capacity has risen significantly, from the 60 GW target set in the European Commission’s 2020 strategy on offshore renewable energy to 116 GW pledged by EU countries in 2023.
Looking ahead to 2024–2030, Europe is expected to install 260 GW of new wind power capacity, with the EU-27 contributing 200 GW – an average of 29 GW per year. WindEurope projects that two-thirds of these new installations will be onshore. However, to meet the EU’s 2030 climate and energy targets, the region needs to accelerate and install an average of 33 GW per year.
1. IRENA World-Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2023 https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Jun/World-Energy-Transitions-Out...
2. WindEurope Press release 18 January 2024 https://windeurope.org/newsroom/press-releases/lots-of-good-news-in-offs...
