Health and climate co-benefits of dietary change

By 2050, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to agriculture and food production are likely to increase by more than 50 per cent, from 7.6 to 11.4 gigatonnes CO₂ equivalents, according to research led by scientists at the Oxford Martin School in the UK. However, shifting to a mostly vegetarian diet, or even simply cutting down meat consumption to within accepted health guidelines, would significantly reduce GHG emissions.

While energy generation, transport and heating of buildings have long been a target for climate policy measures, the impact from food production has often been left out. But on current trends, with intensive agriculture increasingly geared towards livestock rearing, food production will be a major concern.

Adhering to health guidelines on meat consumption could cut global food-related emissions by nearly a third in 2050, as compared to the reference scenario, i.e. down to 8.1 gigatonnes.

Widespread adoption of a vegetarian diet, including eggs and dairy, would halve emissions to 4.2 gigatonnes, while a vegan (i.e. completely plant-based) diet would achieve an emissions cut of around two-thirds, resulting in 3.4 gigatonnes CO₂ equivalents in 2050.

Such steps would also save lives, argued Dr Marco Springmann, lead author of the study that was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in April.

“Imbalanced diets, such as diets low in fruits and vegetables and high in red and processed meat, are responsible for the greatest health burden globally and in most regions,” he said.

More than 5 million premature deaths could be avoided globally by 2050 if health guidelines on meat consumption were followed, rising to more than 7 million with a vegetarian diet and 8 million for veganism. These steps, if widely followed, could also reduce global healthcare costs by US$ 1 billion a year by mid-century.

Using the value-of-a-statistical-life approach, the overall economic benefits of improving diets were estimated at US$ 20–30 trillion per year in 2050, amounting to between 9 and 13 per cent of the global GDP in that same year.

Linking health and climate change in challenging our eating habits could have more effect than focusing on each of these issues alone, said Springmann. “By combining the two benefits, you have a more powerful impact. I think this will make more of an impression.”

“We do not expect everybody to become vegan. But the climate change impacts of the food system will require more than just technological changes. Adopting healthier and more environmentally sustainable diets can be a large step in the right direction.”

Reference: M. Springmann, H. C. J. Godfray, M. Rayner, and P. Scarborough (2016) Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change. http://www.pnas.org/content/113/15/4146.abstract

Source: The Guardian, 21 March 2016

In this issue

Ecosystems more sensitive than previously thought

Three-quarters of EU ecosystems are currently exposed to more nitrogen deposition than they can cope with and nearly one-tenth is receiving too much acid fallout.

Sea levels could rise 1.3 to 2 metres by 2100

New studies have been published concluding that sea levels could rise far more rapidly than expected in coming decades.

Land is a crucially important sector to keep global warming below 1.5°C.

A quarter of human induced greenhouse gas emissions comes from agriculture, forestry and other land use.

Tougher air pollution targets needed

Revision of EU’s key legal instrument for improving air quality – the NEC directive – is currently the subject of intense negotiations.

Analysis of the implementation on the Paris Agreement

An analysis on how to translate the Paris agreement into action in a German context.

Stricter air pollution rules for machinery agreed

Emissions from non-road mobile machinery are a significant source of air pollution, especially nitrogen oxides and particulate matter.

Huge health impacts from Balkan coal plants

New study quantifies the public health costs of polluted air from existing coal-fired power plants in the Western Balkans at up to €8.5 billion per year.

More than half US population exposed to dangerous air pollution

A total of 166 million Americans live in areas that have unhealthy levels of either ozone or particle pollution, according to the American Lung Association.

Save lives and costs by cutting GHG

The greenhouse emission cuts that the United States of America agreed to at the Paris climate conference may come with a significant public health benefit.

Big benefits of cleaner marine fuel

Air quality in coastal areas improved significantly in 2015 after stricter sulphur limits for marine fuels were introduced in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea.

Baltic Sea and North Sea move towards becoming NOx Emission Control Areas

Significant health and environmental benefits will result from action to cut NOx emissions from international shipping.

Livestock holds major potential for GHG reductions

Policies targeting the livestock sector could potentially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 1.8 gigatons of CO2 equivalents per year.

Sweden and the climate change performance index

Sweden always scores well for climate policy on the annual scorecard of Climate Action Network Europe and Germanwatch. But for some years this has been more due to luck than to real progress.