A rapid, sustained and concerted action is needed limit temperature rise to less than 1.5°C. A new report by IRENA, GRA, and the COP28 Presidency analyses renewable energy targets, highlights current gaps and identifies key enablers. Launched during Pre-COP, the report sets the stage for global climate summit negotiations.
The latest IPCC Assessment Report made it evidently clear that it is this decade that is vital if we are to limit temperature rise to less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century (IPCC, 2023). The energy transition has great potential to decrease GHG emissions. However, IRENA’s report, World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C pathway, shows that even if current pledges and plans made by national governments – including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) and other commitments – are fully implemented, this would only reduce CO₂ emissions by 6 per cent by 2030 compared to 2022 levels.
Greater ambition and stronger collective action are needed now to accelerate progress, particularly in renewable energy and energy efficiency. In this context, policy makers, energy authorities, industry and civil society have an opportunity to align at COP28 to agree global targets to triple renewable power generation capacity and double the energy efficiency improvement rate by 2030.
A report by IRENA, the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA) and the COP28 Presidency consolidates high-level analysis of these targets, detailing existing shortfalls and identifying key enablers to resolve them. The report was launched on the sidelines of Pre-COP, a meeting held a month ahead of COP28 to lay the groundwork for negotiations at the global climate summit.
By 2030, the global total of installed renewable power generation capacity would need to expand more than three-fold, from 3,382 GW in 2022 to 11,174 GW, according to IRENA’s 1.5°C scenario. Specifically, installed solar PV capacity would rise to more than 5,400 GW, from 1,055 GW in 2022, and wind installations would surpass 3,500 GW (3,040 GW onshore and 500 GW offshore), up from 899 GW in 2022, over the same period. See more details in Figure 2.
The solutions presented are technologically mature, cost-competitive and commercially available, and can be scaled up rapidly in most countries around the world. In fact, utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind are already the most cost-competitive sources of new electricity supply in most countries today.
Energy efficiency in IRENA’s 1.5°C scenario is mainly a result of a combination of efficient technologies in end-use sectors and extensive electrification. The electrification of end-use sectors, such as in transport and buildings, would see a rise in direct use of electricity in total final energy consumption from 22 per cent in 2020 to 29 per cent in 2030.
Technical energy efficiency improvements embodied by heat pumps, more efficient appliances and electric vehicles, together with flexible, smart electrification strategies and deployment of decentralised energy, are of great importance in decarbonising end-use sectors such as buildings and transportation. For industrial sectors, continued energy efficiency improvements play an important role in keeping the overall energy consumption by industry close to unchanged in 2050 from present levels. See more details in Figure 1 .
A comprehensive mix of policies is needed to achieve these targets. Aside from deployment and enabling policies, structural change is needed to ensure the transition to an energy-efficient economy and a renewables-based power system that is just and fair and provides benefits for all. The report identified five key enablers for the required scale-up in renewable power and energy efficiency, with concrete and urgent recommendations for policy makers in each area: infrastructure and system operation; policy and regulation; supply chains, skills and capacities; finance and international collaboration.
Figure 1. Energy intensity: Indicators in transport and buildings in 2030.
The electricity infrastructure should be expanded and modernised. There is an urgent need to boost cross-sector infrastructure planning, increase cross-border co-operation and develop regional power grids. Action is also needed to drive grid modernisation and expansion and ensure supply-side flexibility and demand-side management.
Renewable power capacity should be increased more rapidly in developing countries, given their growing electricity demand and the important role of renewables in addressing the significant energy access deficit in these countries.
The organisational structures of power sectors must be reshaped to integrate a higher share of renewables. Procurement mechanisms must be designed in a way that strengthens value chains and trade, and industrial policies must be fit for building resilient supply chains. Education, training, re-skilling and up-skilling should be prioritised; women and under-represented groups must be empowered; and collaboration between industry, civil society, policy makers and other key stakeholders should be encouraged.
Public and private finance must rapidly be mobilised to achieve these ambitions. Annual average investment in renewable power generation must reach USD 1,300 billion by 2030, compared to 486 billion in 2022. In the developing world, it is important to minimise investment risks and provide access to low-cost financing. The global financial architecture must be reformed to support the energy transition in the Global South. Climate-related funding from multilateral development banks must be ramped up, and public capital should be redirected from the fossil fuels sector to renewable energy.
Figure 2. Key enablers to tripling of renewable energy and doubling of energy efficiency.
This will require strong international collaboration. Immediate efforts are required to facilitate and contribute to multilateral initiatives that promote knowledge sharing and capacity building to deliver a just transition whilst also safeguarding nature and biodiversity. Collaboration is urgently required to foster collective action on governance, climate finance and innovation. North-South and South-South dialogues should be cultivated; groups like the G7 and G20 must mobilise support and investment; and just transition funds should be established and operationalised in emerging economies.
Accelerating progress in renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency improvement measures this decade would contribute to a cleaner energy system, improve energy security and reduce exposure – both in industry and for consumers – to the damaging risks of highly volatile fossil fuel prices. It would also improve air quality and reduce health costs; deliver universal access to clean affordable energy; and provide greater collective security and well-being.
Bruce Douglas, Chief Executive Officer of the Global Renewables Alliance, states that “This is a unique ‘once in a generation’ opportunity, but we need urgent action to scale renewable energy in every region of the world. Only then can we protect the planet and secure a liveable future for all.”
Emilia Samuelsson
Based on COP28, IRENA and GRA (2023), Tripling renewable power and doubling energy efficiency by 2030: Crucial steps towards 1.5°C, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi
https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Oct/Tripling-renewable-power-and...
