Unique oppurtunity for Ukraine

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The changed geopolitical situation in Ukraine has led to an energy crisis, and the country is now at a crossroads: sticking with coal and nuclear power or investing in renewables?

It is transition time in Ukraine. While Sweden is deciding on its green energy mix by 2040 and Switzerland is to hold a referendum on decommissioning of all nuclear units, Ukraine is struggling to step away from the traditional track and move toward a greener future, together with the rest of the world.

All the conditions seem to be perfect for change: the coal crisis that came with the occupation of the Donbas region (the country’s main source of “domestic” coal) in Eastern Ukraine undermined secure access to coal and at the same time helped Ukraine to get rid of multi-billion subsidies to the sector; the ageing nuclear power fleet which is dependent on nuclear fuel produced in Russia had mostly reached the end of its design life; struggles to meet demand for natural gas and oil; ageing of all the energy system infrastructure and a need for total reconstruction. There could be no better time to start tackling all these problems with one simple solution – 100 per cent domestic renewable energy sources. This solution would also address other vulnerabilities: economic restructuring and development, employment, and the social and natural environments.

It is difficult to believe, but the Ukrainian energy ministry is acting as if the events of recent years are insignificant – as if there is no problem obtaining nuclear fuel and as if Donbas is still a secure source of coal.

Admittedly attempts have been made to find alternative sources of coal for import (e.g. South Africa), to find other sources of nuclear fuel assemblies (e.g. from Sweden) to achieve a diversification level of at least 50 per cent, and to keep natural gas imports from Russia to zero. These would be acceptable solutions if there were no alternatives and there were no problems with the existing generating facilities. But there are! The country cannot rely on existing generating capacities as they are too old and unsafe. Besides, changing the source of imports does not make the country’s energy system secure. This is especially true for nuclear power, since it is not clear when Westinghouse will be able to manufacture enough nuclear fuel to replace the Russian fuel.

The alternative is clear and more achievable than ever before. Ukraine can become energy independent by turning to renewable sources. Even if this is not done for environmental reasons, the simple struggle to achieve energy independence should be good enough reason to put every effort into restructuring the energy system.

The Ukrainian government’s own actions could set a fine example of the dramatic changes that happen once tough policy decisions are made. The country has finally started to act to improve its energy efficiency. In 1995 the Ukrainian president officially proclaimed energy efficiency to be the priority for energy sector development. But nothing happened until last year when the government (under international pressure) finally decreased subsidies for the energy sector, so that saving energy made finally some economic sense.

What could Ukraine’s energy future look like?

Scientists have shown  that a transition toward 100 per cent renewables by 2050 for Ukraine is possible. According to the latest research by NeoCarbonEnergy (2016), within 20 years solar and wind energy sources could dominate the country’s power mix, with all coal generation capacity phased out.  

The government does not yet consider setting such a long-term goal and taking the first steps to achieve it. It is still struggling with meeting its energy community obligation to provide 11 per cent from renewable energy by 2020. However, ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement, a range of international obligations which Ukraine undertook, as well as the costs of renewables in the world are stimulating the country to implement more environmentally-sound policies and draw attention to the issues of energy efficiency and the need for renewables.

The circumstances are putting the current energy system and its owners under pressure: to modernise and to change. It’s only a question of time before all the drawbacks of conventional energy sources are carefully evaluated and the goal to phase out conventional energy sources will become a confirmed national target. The question is: How much more time and money will we lose before the mind shift will happen?

Olexi Pasyuk
National Ecological Center of Ukraine