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National dietary guidelines could reduce greenhouse gas emissions

September 2020

Official UK dietary advice, known as the Eatwell Guide, could reduce the risk of premature death by an estimated 7% and contribute to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions – if it is followed. A study based on observational data from the UK’s National Diet and Nutrition Survey found that those who adhere to five or more of the nine dietary guidelines could reduce their risk of premature death by an estimated 7% and at the same time decrease their carbon dioxide emissions from food consumption by 30%.

Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables proved to be the single most important dietary change to decrease the risk of premature mortality, while reduced meat consumption was one of the most important factors concerning greenhouse gas emissions. However, most people in the UK do not stick to these guidelines. The study shows that only 0.1% of the UK population are able to comply with the national dietary guidelines and 30.6% adhere to at least five of them. And even if all guidelines were followed, it would not be sufficient to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. More transformative dietary changes are needed.

These finding are confirmed by a recent study, published by EAT, that investigated current patterns of food consumption and analysed the efficiency of national dietary guidelines in G20 countries in relation to human health and environmental sustainability. The research found that most of the national dietary guidelines (NDGs) are not ambitious enough to reach the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Only a few G20 countries include environmental impacts in their NDGs and adherence to the guidelines is very low throughout these countries.

Only China and Indonesia have current consumptions patterns in line with what is needed to protect the health of people and planet, according to the study. Making sustainable and healthy food choices is one of the single most powerful actions an individual can take to fight climate change. The G20 countries have an opportunity to influence these choices by raising the level of ambition in their NDGs.

The report “Health impacts and environmental footprints of diets that meet the Eatwell Guide recommendations: analyses of multiple UK studies”: https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e037554

The report “Diets for a better future”:
https://eatforum.org/knowledge/diets-for-a-better-future/

Plans to tackle key air pollutants insufficient

In its first report on countries’ progress towards EU air pollution goals, the European
Commission said that most member states are at risk of missing their binding emission
reduction targets for both 2020 and 2030.

Binding EU air pollution emission limits still breached

In 2018, the national emission ceilings for ammonia were still violated by five member states, although total ammonia emissions seem now to have plateaued after five consecutive years of increase.

Phase-out ship scrubbers

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is calling for all open-loop scrubbers to be converted to closed-loop, and for an eventual ban on the technology.

Global ship emissions keep on rising

In 2018, worldwide shipping consumed some 330 million tonnes of fuel oil, resulting in emissions of 1056 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. Unless concerted action is taken, these emissions are expected to grow by up to fifty per cent by 2050.

EU Commission proposes strategy for energy system integration

The European Commission issued its strategy – “Powering a climate-neutral economy: An EU Strategy for Energy System Integration” – on 8 July 2020. This is one of several policy initiatives which have been presented as a part of the European Green Deal.

New civil society scenario shows pathway towards 65% emission reductions by 2030

The European Commission will propose in the coming weeks an updated EU 2030 climate target. European NGOs have developed their own Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) energy scenario that illustrates how EU greenhouse gas emissions can be cut by 65% by 2030.

Scaling up renewable energy investment in emerging markets

The untapped potential for the renewable energy sector in emerging markets in Africa, Asia and Latin America is enormous, and should be addressed urgently in recovery efforts post-Covid-19.

Editorial

Place the most vulnerable at the core of the response to the climate crisis. The citizens of Small Island Development States (SIDS) are among the most vulnerable people to climate change. More than 60 million people living on these islands are threatened directly by sea-level rise and more intense weather-related natural disasters, caused by global heating.

Serious health effects and high mortality rate from burning fossil fuels and climate heating

Swedish medical associations have summarised the current scientific evidence on the health effects of climate heating and highlighted important areas where efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, such as phasing out fossil fuels and reducing meat consumption, will also have profound health benefits.

Climate crisis could displace 1.2bn people

1.2 billion people living in 31 countries that are not sufficiently resilient to withstand ecological threats face being displaced within 30 years, according to a new report.

Eco-label for stoves

Residential burning of wood, coal and gas for home heating is a major source of air pollution, such as health-damaging PM.

The last EU emission standards for road vehicles?

The EU is currently in the process of setting new pollutant emission standards for light and heavy-duty vehicles.

Oil or Paris

The stakes are high for the Swedish government when it decides whether to permit a big residue oil refinery in Lysekil. If it says yes, Sweden is unlikely to reach its climate target. If it says no it is a setback for oil-exporting countries, especially Norway and Saudi Arabia.

National dietary guidelines could reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Official UK dietary advice, known as the Eatwell Guide, could reduce the risk of premature death by an estimated 7% and contribute to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions – if it is followed.

The economic recovery during and after the Corona pandemic is an opportunity for decarbonisation

Some of the best measures for the climate, as suggested by NGOs in a poll for AirClim, are good for restarting the economy too.

In brief

EU infringement actions on air pollution

In May, the European Commission issued a reasoned opinion, threatening to take Slovenia to the EU Court of Justice if it does not comply within four months with the Air Quality Directive. Slovenia failed to ensure compliance with the limit values for PM₁₀in Celinsko Obmocje and has not taken appropriate measures to keep exceedance periods as short as possible.

Romania was sent a formal notice over infringements of the same directive, with the threat of a reasoned opinion to follow if action is not taken within four months to reduce levels of NO₂.

Bulgaria and Poland were cautioned for not allowing citizens to challenge public authorities over the air quality plans required under EU law, while France, Cyprus and Lithuania were similarly cautioned over failures to fully incorporate the National Emissions Ceiling Directive into national law.

Source: Ends Europe Daily, 14 May 2020.

The full 14 May infringements package: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/inf_20_859

NO2 in German cities

A new report by the German Federal Environment Ministry (BMU) shows that nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations exceeded the air quality limit of 40 micrograms of NO₂ per cubic metre of air (µg/m³) per year in 25 cities in 2019, compared to 57 cities in 2018.

On average, the annual mean NO₂ values in 2019 at measuring stations close to traffic were around 4 µg/m³ lower than in 2018. The reasons for the decline were: Local measures such as speed limits, driving bans or the use of less polluting buses; nationwide measures such as software updates; funding under the programme “Clean Air 2017–2020”; the renewal of the vehicle fleet with vehicles that in real operation have lower NOx emissions; and meteorological influences that affect the spread of air pollutants.

Source: AECC Newsletter, June 2020.

The BMU press release (in German): www.bmu.de/pressemitteilung/stadtluft-wird-sauberer-zahl-der-staedte-ueb....

UK government proposes new law to prevent illegal deforestation in supply chains

The new law that is proposed by the UK government requires large companies to ensure that the supply chain commodities they use, such as soy, beef and palm oil, have not been produced on illegally deforested land. Further, they must show that they have taken proportionate action to prove that this is the case. The new law is intended to restrict the global problem of illegal conversion of forests and other important natural areas into agricultural land. The law proposal is currently up for consultation in the UK government.

Source: https://fcrn.org.uk/research-library/proposed-uk-law-restricts-illegal-d...

High emissions from domestic solid-fuel burning

Burning just 2–3 kg of coal, briquettes, peat sods or wood produce the same amount of particulate matter (PM) as driving a typical, modern diesel car for several thousand kilometres, according to a study by University College Dublin, published by the Irish Environment Protection Agency.

The emission factors were obtained using a domestic stove designed to current standards, and they represent emissions over the complete combustion cycle, from ignition through to extinction. The study covered several fuel types: sod peat, peat briquettes, bituminous and smokeless coals, hardwood, softwood as well as firelighters.

The authors conclude that smoky coal bans “while laudable in principle” are ineffective and that all combustion of solid fuels in manually operated, domestic appliances in urban areas should be discouraged instead.

Source: Independent.ie, 11 July 2020.

The report “Emission Factors from Domestic-scale Solid-fuel Appliances”: http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/research324.html

French government faces heavy fine

The French government will be fined €10 million every six months if it does not reduce air pollution in line with the law, the Council of State, the country’s highest administrative court, said on 10 July. Following complaints by environmental organisations, the council ordered the government in July 2017 to take measures to reduce nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter pollution in several regions to bring them in line with the EU Air Quality Directive.

“The council notes that the government has not taken the necessary steps to reduce air pollution in eight zones,” it said in a statement, adding that the fine would be the highest penalty it has ever issued. The fines paid by the state would be transferred to environmental organisations, the council said, adding that the fines could also be increased.

Source: Reuters, 10 July 2020.

Germany sued over air pollution failures

ClientEarth and Environmental Action Germany in May lodged a legal challenge with the Higher Administrative Court of Berlin and Brandenburg, in relation to flawed national air pollution control programmes that put Germany on track to miss legally binding emission reduction targets for four out of five pollutants in 2030.

Lawyer Caroline Douhaire, who is representing the organisations in the case, said: “Germany has never been a model student when it comes to implementing EU air quality law. The ongoing breaches of NO₂ limits in cities across Germany have prompted multiple court rulings against authorities, as well as an EU-level case against the country itself. The German government must not make the same mistake in reducing national emissions under the NEC Directive. We need measures in place now to secure the right emissions reductions in time – and currently, this is not what we’re seeing.”

Source: ClientEarth media release, 26 May 2020. Link: https://www.clientearth.org/press/germany-sued-over-major-national-air-p...

Shipper MSC in top 10 list of EU carbon polluters

The Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) overtook Ryanair in the top 10 rankings of the EU’s biggest carbon dioxide emitters in 2019. Data compiled by Transport & Environment (T&E) showed MSC emitted an estimated 10.72 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2019, ranking it seventh in the EU, rising above Ryanair at No. 8, which produced an estimated 10.53 million tonnes.

Both MSC and Ryanair still emit less CO₂ than the biggest coal-fired power plants in the top 10 list. Six German plants and two Polish plants make up the rest of the list, with Poland’s Belchatow power station the biggest polluter.

Source: Reuters, 3 July 2020

T&E press release: https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/top-shipping-polluter-overtak...

Greenhouse gas production from aquaculture

Global aquaculture accounted for around 0.49% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2017, approximately the same level as emissions derived from sheep meat production. These are findings from a recent study that quantified the global GHG emissions from aquaculture (excluding the production of aquatic plants). When emissions are measured per kilogram of food, aquaculture shows a lower emission intensity than meat from buffalo, cattle, goats and sheep, while the production of meat from pigs and chickens show a similar emission intensity as aquaculture.

The relatively low emission intensity of aquaculture was attributed to the absence of methane production in the digestive system of the fish, together with the high fertility of fish and their efficient conversion of feed into edible product.

Aquaculture production is an important part of global food security, and awareness of its contribution to GHG emissions and how to mitigate them is important for expanding aquaculture sustainably.

Report: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-68231-8

Methane rises to highest level on record

Animal farming and fossil fuels have driven global emissions of methane to the highest level on record, according to new data from the Global Carbon Project. Since 2000, emissions have risen by nine per cent (approximately 50 million tonnes a year), and concentrations are currently increasing at a rate of around 8–12 parts per billion (ppb) per year.

Source: The Guardian, 14 July 2020
Further information: https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/methanebudget/

Dirty air endangers World Heritage Sites

Air pollution can destroy our cultural heritage, including historical buildings and monuments. A recent study under the Air Convention evaluated risks of potential damage and associated costs due to air pollution for 21 UNESCO World Heritage Sites in six countries: Croatia, Germany, Italy, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland.

Corrosion and soiling by dirty air can lead to severe economic losses through high maintenance and restoration costs. For example, the total annual cost of maintenance work from soiling of the limestone surface of the Colosseum in Rome, Italy, was estimated to be about €680,000 per year.

Source: UN ECE press release, 11 May 2020. Link: https://www.unece.org/info/media/presscurrent-press-h/environment/2020/d....

Science worst-case scenario is reality right now

Climate science’s worst-case scenario isn’t just an awful warning. It describes what is already happening right now. A report from the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences took a closer look at the evidence for climate change in terms of carbon dioxide emissions and climate models, and at cumulative greenhouse gas emissions since 2005. By 2020, the emissions matched the “business as usual” predictions very closely. The study then extended the trends to 2030, and to 2050, with the same outcome. This means that by the end of the century the planet could be 3.3°C to 5.4°C warmer than it was at the start of the Industrial Revolution and the worldwide switch to fossil fuels. The worst-case scenario should remain on the table as a useful risk assessment tool the study concludes.

https://climatenewsnetwork.net/climate-sciences-worst-case-is-todays-rea...

EU can reach climate neutrality without CCS – German environment agency

The Federal Environment Agency (UBA) outlined measures that demonstrate how EU greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) neutrality is possible without controversial carbon capture and storage (CCS) and with limited amounts of bioenergy, in a study published in November 2019. The study urges efficiency in all energy-consuming sectors (industry, buildings and transport) as well as “far-reaching electrification”.

“These measures can reduce the final energy demand (including international transport) by about 37 percent and the share of electricity can be increased to almost 50 percent,” according to the study. The paper recommends a “broad portfolio” of renewable energy options as well as substantial quantities of renewable fuels produced from renewable electricity via electrolysis or based on biomass. The study also requires lowering the levels of agricultural and forestry activities. In 2015, agriculture was responsible for 10 percent of EU GHG emissions, according to the study. “A reduction of 95 percent compared to 1990 is not possible without abandoning production and reducing livestock numbers.”

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/1410/publikati...

Heating our climate damages our economies

A PIK study reveals greater costs than expected and that damage from weather extremes would be most costly of all. Previous research suggested that a 1°C hotter year reduces economic output by about 1%, whereas the new analysis points to output losses of up to three times that figure in warm regions and finds significant economic losses: 10% on a global average and more than 20% in the tropics by 2100. This is still a conservative assessment, since the study did not take into account damage from, for example, extreme weather events. Every tonne of CO₂ emitted in 2020 will cause economic damage amounting to between 73 and 142 dollars in 2010 prices. By 2030, the so-called social cost of carbon will already be almost 30 percent higher due to rising temperatures. By way of comparison: the carbon price in European emissions trading currently fluctuates between 20 and 30 euros per tonne, while the national carbon price in Germany rises from 25 euros next year to 55 euros in 2025. These current carbon prices thus reflect only a small part of the actual climate damage. According to the polluter-pays principle, they would need to be adjusted upwards significantly, the study says.

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/heating-our-climate-damag...

Phase-out of combustion-engine cars in Europe

A briefing paper by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) lists announcements by select European local and national governments as well as global car manufacturers to phase out passenger cars with internal combustion engines.

Almost half a dozen countries in Europe have set phase-out targets and dates for combustion-engine passenger cars. In addition to national commitments, almost 30 cities have made plans or have pledged to prohibit combustion-engine cars altogether in urban centres or entire metropolises, with the main aim of improving local air quality, partly focusing on full bans for diesel vehicles at an earlier stage than gasoline-powered cars.

Such announcements are important signals to the EU to put in place a comprehensive phase-out strategy at the EU level, e.g. via the revision of the EU car CO₂ standards. Additional measures, such as allowing member states to mandate national phase-outs and enforce penalties for non-compliance, could provide an additional push for car manufacturers to align their strategies, but the legal basis for such bans has yet to be reviewed at the EU level, according to the ICCT.

The ICCT briefing: theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Combustion-engine-phase-outs-EU-May2020.pdf

Rise in plant-based ready meals sold in UK

The UK NGO Eating Better shows in a new report that the proportion of ready meals that is plant-based has increased significantly in UK supermarkets. From 3% in 2018 to 16% in March 2020, plus another 9% when vegetarian meals that are not fully plant-based are included. But more than four out of five ready meals in UK supermarkets still contain animal foods.

Source: https://fcrn.org.uk/research-library/proportion-plant-based-ready-meals-....