A recently published briefing by Climate Analytics summarises some of the observed and projected impacts on the physical, biological, and human dimensions as outlined by the most recent IPCC reports.
Some of the main take-aways are:
- The Arctic is warming at more than double the pace of the global average. The surface air temperature between January and March 2016 and 2018 was recorded at 6°C above the 1981-2010 average. Between 2014 and 2018 the annual surface air temperature exceeded that of any year since 1900.
- Sea ice is continuously melting over all months of the year. The average minimum sea ice extent per decade has decreased by 31% from 1979-1988 to 2009-2018. The Greenland Ice Sheet is continuously losing mass and contributing to global sea level rise.
- The range of polar species is contracted while temperate species are expanding into the Arctic, leading to increased competition. The introduction of invasive species is threatening local flora and fauna.
- At global warming levels of 1.5°C, the Arctic annual mean surface temperature increase will be twice the global average.
- The first summer season with a practically sea-ice free Arctic Ocean will likely occur before 2050. At 1.5°C global warming, the likelihood of a sea ice-free September in 2100 is substantially lower than at 2°C global warming. The risk of crossing the tipping point of the Greenland Ice Sheet increases rapidly above 1.5°C. At 2°C of warming, there is a higher than 50% chance that the tipping point will be crossed.
- Arctic communities are reaching socio-ecological tipping points. Changes such as sea ice loss, glacial melt and ecosystem shifts, which are exacerbated above 1.5°C, are threatening cultural identities, mental health, food sovereignty and water security.
Download file: https://climatenetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/CAN-1.5-A-Tipping-...
