Offshore wind energy development in the Baltic sea must accelerate

Text by: Emilia Samuelsson
 |  May 2020

Untapped potential of offshore wind industry globally

Offshore wind potential has attracted increased attention in recent years, for good reasons. A comprehensive global study found that global offshore wind capacity is set to increase 15-fold and attract around $1 trillion of cumulative investment by 20401.

However, the full potential is far greater. The geospatial analysis of this report was limited to the best offshore wind sites and still found that the technical potential is 36,000 TWh per year. Current electricity demand is around 23,000 TWh. These installations would be in water less than 60 metres deep and within 60 km from shore. Adding the potential of floating turbines could unlock power to meet global demand 11 times over in 20401.  According to the International Energy Agency, offshore electricity could become the EU’s leading energy source by the early 2040s1. During 2019 a record 3.6 GW of new offshore wind capacity was added across Europe2. 

A study by WindEurope concludes that 7 GW of new offshore wind capacity needs to be built each year, rising to 18 GW a year by 20503 in order to reach EU climate goals.

Europe currently has 22,072 MW of installed offshore wind capacity2.This corresponds to 5,047 wind turbines across 12 nations (ibid.). The country with the largest percentage of Europe’s offshore wind power is the United Kingdom, with 45% of all installations. Germany has 34%, Denmark 8%, the Netherlands 7% and Belgium 6%2. These five nations thus account for 99% of total European capacity. 

Even though the potential of offshore wind industry is undisputed, there are challenges to establish the industry in an inclusive way. The oceans are widely used, and maritime spatial planning needs to address the needs of diverse and sometimes conflicting interests. For expansion to be sustainable and have least impact on affected stakeholders the geographic locations of offshore windfarms need careful consideration. At present, the areas available for offshore wind are too limited, as large areas are excluded for military use or nature conservation, or earmarked for fishing. Unless more sea areas are made accessible in Europe, just 112 GW of offshore wind capacity would be possible, rather than 4503.

The potential of the Baltic Sea

In Europe, the North Sea accounts for 77 percent of all cumulative off-shore wind capacity, the Irish Sea 13 percent, and the Baltic Sea 10 percent and the Atlantic Sea under 1 %. The Baltic Sea has 2 GW of installed offshore wind capacity. Denmark has 872 MW, Finland 68 MW, Germany 1,074 MW and Sweden 192 MW. 

A report from WindEurope focusing on boosting the offshore wind power in the Baltic Sea4 shows that by 2030, 9 GW could easily be deployed in this region. With the right government support and regional cooperation, this amount could be increased to over 14 GW. By 2050 the installed capacity could reach 85 GW, which would make the Baltic Sea the second largest basin for offshore wind power after the North Sea. However, the cumulative potential capacity in the Baltic Sea calculated by the European Commission is above 93 GW, with a generation capacity of 325 TWh/year5.

In comparison with the North Sea, wind farms in the Baltic Sea are exposed to weaker tides, lower waves and shallower water depths – conditions which could make development easier. One of the few topographical hindrances that must be allowed for is seasonal ice in the north Baltic Sea. With such potential, why is the Baltic Sea lagging behind in the deployment of offshore wind farms? The main reason is the absence of clear policy reinforcement and market linkage. These factors have hindered development in Sweden, Finland, Estonia and Lithuania. Finland and Sweden have large shares of nuclear and hydro in their energy mixes, with additional biomass, gas and onshore wind. Due to cheap hydro power and existing nuclear, offshore wind deployment has not been prioritised here, as it is in Denmark and Germany. Areas earmarked for offshore wind establishment are scarce, due to conflicts of interest. 

Action is needed now for future benefits

The electrification of the global energy system is increasing. Unfortunately, fossil fuels still account for nearly two-thirds of the world’s electricity generation – the same proportion as  two decades ago. Development must accelerate in order to have a chance of reaching the set energy and climate goals in time.  

Apart from electricity, the high capacity and falling costs of offshore wind could be used to produce green hydrogen6. Green hydrogen is produced from water by renewables-powered electrolysis; it creates no carbon and can be sold or stored until needed. Thus, hydrogen could provide an important form of energy storage and balancing tool. Hydrogen can also be used as an energy source by industries that are the most difficult to decarbonise, such as steel and cement production. 250,000 homes could be heated with hydrogen fuel from 1 gigawatt of offshore wind (IEA 2019, p 14). 

By promoting maritime spatial planning that defines suitable areas for offshore wind farms, development can be accelerated in the most suitable areas. An offshore wind farm takes about 10 years to build. Procedures for obtaining permits are slow, and resistance from local populations and other stakeholders can prolong development further. Maritime spatial planning that supports coexistence of offshore wind farms and other users, as well as increasing the social acceptance, can improve and accelerate these practices. 

Another important factor for boosting the deployment of offshore wind in the Baltic Sea is to look to EU funding. Different funding schemes allow governments and the private sector to support technological innovation, strengthen cooperation and knowledge sharing. Between 2014 and 2020 approximately €80bn was provided by the EU to fund research, mainly through the Horizon 2020 research programme. Together with the European Commission, member states should use the potential of EU funding for support in deploying cross-border projects.  

States need to define clear climate and energy objectives to provide the foundation for expanding internal offshore markets and exploit the added value that the sector brings. When it comes to economic growth, offshore wind energy boosts imports and exports. It attracts international investments. Offshore wind energy enhances energy independence and security. 

Governments need to provide clarity on future offshore volumes through suitable support mechanisms and by confirming new site allocations.

All the countries that surround the Baltic Sea basin would benefit from developing offshore wind. When it comes to jobs, wind energy creates careers in turbine manufacturing, electricity generation and other industries. Studies have shown that in the scenario of 32 GW of offshore wind by 2050 in the Baltic Sea, up to 10,000 annual full-time jobs would be created in planning and building wind farms. In addition, up to a further 29,000 full-time jobs would be created in operation and maintenance activities5.

In conclusion, the offshore wind industry in the Baltic Sea can become an important asset for Europe’s transition to a renewable energy sector. Benefits would include competitive and clean energy, and increased local and international economic growth. However, development in the Baltic Sea has been slow to date, and needs to catch up in order to support the decarbonising of the energy sector.

Emilia Samuelsson

1. IEA (2019), Offshore Wind Outlook 2019, Paris 

2.  Wind Europe (2020) Offshore Wind in Europe–key trends and statistics 2019,  Brussels. 

3. Wind Europe (2019) Our energy, our future How offshore wind will help Europe go carbon-neutral, Brussels 

4. Wind Europe (2019). Boosting offshore wind energy in the Baltic Sea, Brussels 

5. (2019). Study on baltic offshore wind energy cooperation under BEMIP: Final report. Luxembourg : Publications Office of the European Union.

6. Mackenzie, W. (2020, January 31). Green Hydrogen: A Pillar Of Decarbonization? 

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Editorial

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In brief

A fair comparison of organic and conventional farming requires improved methods

The environmental impact of food and agriculture is intensively discussed. A com-mon method to assess these environmental impacts, including climate change, is life cycle analysis (LCA). Several studies based on this method conclude that organic agriculture is worse for the climate than conventional agriculture, due to lower yield and hence greater land use per unit of food. This gives a faulty picture, according to three researchers who have analysed a wide range of LCA studies in a recent report. They found that LCAstudies often give too narrow a view of agricultural systems and miss out on important benefits of organic agriculture. Previous studies have found that organic plantations host 30% greater biodiversity than conventional. Moreover, organic management promotes soil fertility due to crop rotation and nutrient recycling, and does not use any pesticides. These effects are not taken into account in many LCA studies, which results in an unbalanced picture of the environmental performance of different agricultural systems that may in turn result in bad political and societal decisions. 

Another problematic aspect is when hypothetical “indirect effects” are in-cluded in the studies. As an example, it is often assumed in LCA studies that the total consumption of meat will remain unchanged if there is a shift to organic production. Thus, it is not taken into consideration that consumers that are motivated to buy organic meat for ethical and environmental reasons are likely to consume less meat. More knowledge of this kind of consumer behaviour is needed. Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0489-6

International Day of Clean Air

The United Nations General Assembly has designated 7 September as the International Day of Clean Air for blue skies. 2020 is the first year for this event, introduced to build on the “increasing interest of the international community in clean air, and to emphasise the need to make further efforts to improve air quality, including reducing air pollution, to protect human health”.

More information at: http://www.un.org/en/observances/clean-air-day

EEA Air Quality Viewer

The European Environment Agency (EEA) published on 4 April an online viewer that tracks the weekly average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5). This is in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and has been developed to assess how it has affected concentrations of air pollution.

The EEA viewer, along with information on the methodology used, can be found at: 

http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/air/air-quality-and-covid19.

Air pollution shortens life by 3 years worldwide

By using a new method of modelling the effects of various sources of air pollution on death rates, a new study has estimated that globally air pollution caused an extra 8.8 million premature deaths a year in 2015. This represents an average shortening of life expectancy of nearly three years for all persons worldwide. It is the first study to show the effects of air pollution on deaths according to age, type of disease and its effect on life expectancy at the level of individual countries and regions.

The study distinguishes between avoidable, human-made air pollution and pollution from natural sources such as desert dust and wildfire emissions, which cannot be avoided, and shows that about two-thirds of premature deaths are attributable to human-made air pollution, mainly from fossil fuel use; this goes up to 80 per cent in high-income countries. This means that five and a half million deaths worldwide a year are potentially avoidable.

The researchers estimate that if air pollution was reduced by removing fossil fuel emissions, the average life expectancy worldwide would increase by just over a year, and by nearly two years if all human-made emissions were removed.

Source: Science Daily, 2 March 2020.

The study: “Loss of life expectancy from air pollution compared to other risk factors: a worldwide perspective”, by Jos Lelieveld et al. Published in Cardiovascular Research. DOI: 10.1093/cvr/cvaa025

World’s most polluted cities ranked

ISwiss monitoring firm IQAir has published its latest World Air Quality Report, which ranks the world’s most polluted cities in terms of levels of particulate matter (PM2.5 ) and reveals that climate change events are impacting on air pollution more than ever.

Using a weighted population average, Bangladesh is the most polluted country for PM2.5  exposure. Pakistan, Mongolia, Afghanistan and India follow behind respectively, deviating from one another by less than 10 per cent.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is the highest-ranking country in Europe for PM2.5  pollution, featuring as the 14th most polluted country globally, with only 4µg/m3 less than China’s national PM2.5 weighted average. Lukavac in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has several chemicals factories, is Europe’s most polluted city, with an average PM2.5  level of 55ug/m3.

The report also shows that climate change events, such as sandstorms and wildfires, elevated levels in countries and cities such as Singapore, Australia, Indonesia, Brazil, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Los Angeles, among numerous others.

Source: AirQualityNews, 26 February 2020.

More information: https://www.iqair.com/world-most-polluted-cities

Domestic coal and wet wood to be banned

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The pledge was a major part of the country’s Clean Air Strategy, published a year ago, which stated that domestic burning of solid fuels accounts for around 39 per cent of all PM pollution in the UK. By comparison, industry and road transport contributes 16 and 12 per cent, respectively.

Source: The Guardian and AirQualityNews, 21 February 2020

Dutch measures to cut emissions after court ruling

By using a new method of modelling the effects of various sources of air pollution on death rates, a new study has estimated that globally air pollution caused an extra 8.8 million premature deaths a year in 2015. This represents an average shortening of life expectancy of nearly three years for all persons worldwide. It is the first study to show the effects of air pollution on deaths according to age, type of disease and its effect on life expectancy at the level of individual countries and regions.

The study distinguishes between avoidable, human-made air pollution and pollution from natural sources such as desert dust and wildfire emissions, which cannot be avoided, and shows that about two-thirds of premature deaths are attributable to human-made air pollution, mainly from fossil fuel use; this goes up to 80 per cent in high-income countries. This means that five and a half million deaths worldwide a year are potentially avoidable.

The researchers estimate that if air pollution was reduced by removing fossil fuel emissions, the average life expectancy worldwide would increase by just over a year, and by nearly two years if all human-made emissions were removed.

Sources: The Guardian, 24 April and Dutchnews.nl, 25 April 2020.

Urgenda’s 54 actions to cut emissions: https://www.urgenda.nl/en/themas/climate-case/dutch-implementation-plan/

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Including the additional emissions created by manufacturing batteries, it takes about one to two years of driving an electric car to reach parity with diesel and gasoline, T&E notes. That time decreases to less than a year for vehicles powered by the cleanest grids, such as those in Sweden or France, using batteries produced with low-carbon electricity. 

Even in the worst-case scenario, an electric car with a battery produced in China and driven in Poland still emits 22 per cent less CO2 than diesel and 28 per cent less than petrol. In the best-case scenario, an electric car with a battery produced in Sweden and driven in Sweden can emit 80 per cent less CO2 than diesel and 81 per cent less than petrol.

The tool draws on the most up-to-date data to allow users to compare the vehicles in several different scenarios based on vehicle segment, where the battery was produced, and in what country the car was driven. The tool also allows users to compare cars driven in 2020 and 2030, when the EU electricity grid will be even cleaner.

Source: T&E News, 21 April 2020.

Can hydrogen replace ship fuel oil?

Regular hydrogen-powered containership services on the transpacific could be a common sight by 2030, according to a new report from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

The study found that 99 per cent of container ship voyages between China and the United States in 2015 can be powered by hydrogen with only minor changes to fuel capacity or operations – i.e. by replacing 5 per cent of cargo space with more hydrogen fuel or by adding one additional port of call to refuel. Moreover, 43 per cent of the 2015 voyages can be made without any such changes.

The results show that the bunkering needs of some of the largest ships in the world can be met with hydrogen with only minor changes to operations. Other potential alternative fuels, including ammonia and methanol, carry more energy per unit volume than hydrogen, and are thus promising areas for future research.

Source: Splash247.com, 2 March 2020.The study: https://theicct.org/publications/zero-emission-container-corridor-hydrog...

The role of soil carbon in mitigating climate change

Soil holds three times more carbon than the atmosphere. Building soil carbon is an appealing way to mitigate climate change in land-based systems. Apart from increasing carbon sinks and reducing further emissions from land use change, building soil carbon gives benefits to agriculture such as soil fertility, reduced erosion and enhanced resilience to climate change. A recent study that quantifies the role of soil carbon in (land-based) natural climate solutions (NCS) shows that soil carbon makes up 25% of the total potential of NCS, of which 60% is restoration of depleted stocks and the rest is protection of existing soil carbon. The study also shows that soil carbon makes up 47% of the climate mitigation potential of agriculture. 

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0491-z

A 30-year-long study found organic farming to outperform conventional

The results of a 30-year trial that has compared organic and conventional agriculture side by side since 1981 were presented earlier this year. They show that the organic agriculture system in the study produced 40% less greenhouse gases, was more energy efficient, built soil carbon rather than depleted the soil and matched the yields of the conventional agriculture system. The organic agriculture system was also found to be more resistant to drought. 

Source: https://rodaleinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/fst-30-year-report.pdf

California moving towards zero-emission trucks

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) presented on 28 April amendments to its proposed Advanced Clean Trucks Regulation, including increasing the percentage of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales in California across all vehicle groups from 2024 to 2030 and to increase the percentage requirements from 2030 to 2035. They also propose to include pickups in the ZEV sales requirement, beginning with the 2024 model year.

In combination, these changes would increase ZEV sales in all vehicle size categories. CARB says that this would provide a clear path towards achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. The proposals are open for consultation until 28 May 2020 and can be found at: ww3.arb.ca.gov/regact/2019/act2019/30daynotice.pdf.

Source: AECC Newsletter, April 2020.

Luxembourg first country to make public transport free

From 28 February, Luxembourg has abolished fares for trains, trams and buses in what the government said was a bid to tackle road congestion and pollution, as well as supporting low earners. This means that all standard-class journeys on public transport are now free of charge.

To cope with the increase in commuters, Luxembourg plans to invest €3.9 billion in railways between 2018 and 2028, upgrade the bus network and add more park-and-ride sites on the border.

Source: EurActiv, 2 March 2020.

New policy instruments needed for shipping

A Swedish research project called “Carrots and whips in shipping to achieve environmental quality goals” has analysed which policy instruments and measures are most cost-effective to reduce ship emissions into the air. The study focussed on the impact of ship emissions on four of the Swedish environmental quality targets related to air pollution as well as on the IMO’s climate goals. Analyses of new emission scenarios up to 2030 and 2045 showed that the environmental targets for shipping emissions will not be reached with current legislation. Even the most optimistic scenarios with relatively large changes in the shipping fuel mix are not expected to lead to the attainment of the climate targets.

In the case of greenhouse gas reduction, the researchers propose to include shipping in the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS) or a similar global system. Speed reduction is another suggestion. To reduce NOx emissions, a (Northern) European NOx fund that provides incentives for investments is proposed. Using electricity for the propulsion of ships and for onshore power in ports can be societally profitable, according to the analysis.

“We also recommend more research and development on different types of renewable fuels as well as policy instruments to promote the production of such fuels,” said lead author Inge Vierth, at the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI).

The main report “Policies and measures to reduce air emissions from shipping”, VTI notat 24A-2019, is available at: www.vti.se/en/publications

Shipping in the EU ETS?

In February, the European Parliament’s Environmental Committee backed a bill that aims to include the shipping industry under the EU’s emissions trading scheme (ETS). Jutta Paulus, member of the Greens, has been in charge of formulating the parliament’s proposal on how the so-called MRV legislation, which sets the rules for measuring ships’ CO₂ emissions, should be updated.

The European Commission had previously announced that they think a new study needs to be conducted, and that they may present a proposal for including shipping in the ETS in 2021.

The Environmental Committee will vote on the issue in May, and the full parliament will vote in June. Once this is done, negotiations will commence on the final MRV legislation, involving the European Parliament, the EU Council and the European Commission.

Source: ShippingWatch, 20 February 2020.