A fair share of climate responsibility

High time to set a budget. Photo: Clappstar/ flickr.com / CC BY-NC-ND

Annex 1 countries need to have negative emissions of 441 GtCO2 by 2050, according to a new equity proposal from several Latin American countries. 

The new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report published during 2013 and 2014 has for the first time agreed a figure on how much carbon dioxide mankind can still emit while staying below a 2°C global temperature increase. 

The IPCC report suggests that to have at least a 66 per cent chance of keeping to less than 2°C of warming, mankind must emit no more than 2900 Gt of carbon dioxide, when accounting for non-CO2 forcings, during the rest of this century. The conclusion of the IPCC is that more than half of this budget has already been used up (1630 to 2150 Gt tons of CO2 were already emitted by 2011). The world is currently emitting about 50 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases in carbon-dioxide-equivalents each year, which means that with current emission levels the emissions budget would be used up within 15 to 25 years.

Governments around the world are discussing these figures to find out how this carbon budget could be shared. This very small carbon budget requires action by all countries and strong financial support to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation.

But many developing countries argue that this requires the participation of all countries in strict application of the principles of the UN Climate Convention based on equity, Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR/RC) and historical responsibility. These countries also want an agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees and they are concerned with the inaction of developed parties in promoting real and effective solutions to raise the ambition of mitigation levels and comply with the Kyoto Protocol and its second commitment period. 

Several Latin American countries like Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua have, for instance, submitted to the UN Climate Convention several steps that they consider to follow on from the CBDR and Equity principles in the context of climate change:

Step 1. Concerning the calculation of the climate debt they point out:

“Cumulative global emissions have been around 1,200 GtCO2 between the years 1850 to 2008. Of this figure, Annex I countries accounted for 864 GtCO2, which is 72 per cent of the total. Since their share of population was nearly 25 per cent, their fair CO2 emission share would have been 300 GtCO2 and their overuse or carbon debt was therefore about 564 GtCO2. Non-Annex I countries accounted for 336 GtCO2, which is 28 per cent of the total CO2 emissions. Their fair share would have been 900 GtCO2 and thus they had an underuse of 564 GtCO2 of emissions” (see table).

Table: Calculation of Annex I countires' climate debt to non Annex I countries.

Period 1850-2010 Annex I Non Annex I
Total CO2 864 GtCO2 (72%) 336 GtCO2 (28%)
Share of population 25% 75%
Fair share 300 GtCO2 900 GtCO2
Overuse/underuse Overuse by 564 GtCO2 Underuse by 564 GtCO2

Step 2. Concerning the calculation of the carbon budget by 2050 they point out:

“According to the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC, mitigation scenarios in which temperature increase is more likely than not to be less than 1.5°C relative to pre‐industrial levels by 2100 are characterised by concentrations in 2100 of below 430 ppm CO2eq. Temperature change caused by anthropogenic GHG emissions can be kept to less than 2°C relative to pre‐industrial levels if atmospheric concentrations in 2100 are limited to about 450 ppm CO2eq (high confidence).”

Step 3. Concerning the distribution of the carbon budget to all parties up to 2050 they point out:

“In order to keep temperature rise between 1.5°C and 2°C and not to exceed the 2°C level, in the period between 2011 and 2050 it is estimated that cumulative CO2 emissions (GtCO2) should be limited to 900 GtCO2. According to the United Nations Department on Economic and Social Affairs, the world population is projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050, and the population of developed regions will remain largely unchanged at around 1.3 billion from now until 2050. This means, first, that in the period 2011 to 2050, Annex I countries should emit only 122 GtCO2 of emissions since they represent only 13.5 per cent of the world’s population; and if the population of developing countries represents 86.5 per cent of the world’s total population, their fair share should be 778 GtCO2. On top of this, in order to be able to claim this carbon budget of 122 GtCO2 emissions, the developed countries would have to repay the 564 GtCO2 of climate debt that they accumulated in the previous period, 1850–2010. This payment could be made by re-allocating the fair shares for the period 2011–2050. Thus, Annex I countries would have responsibility for negative emissions of 441 GtCO2 (122 GtCO2 minus 564 GtCO2), while non-Annex 1 countries would have responsibility within a budget of 1,372 GtCO2 (778 GtCO2 plus 564 GtCO2). If it is not possible for Annex I countries to implement their responsibility fully, keeping in mind the difficulty of achieving such a high level of negative emissions by 2050, these countries could arrange for non-Annex I countries to take on some of the responsibility through a scheme that involves payment of financial resources to implement mitigation or avoidance of emissions.”

Step 4. Concerning the application of the principle of historical responsibility of the UN Climate Convention they point out:

“For different targets of per capita emissions for each country the principle of historical responsibility will apply according to a proposal by Brazil, which calculates the relative contribution of each country to temperature increase. This results in different per capita emission targets for each country, with the effect that those having higher historical responsibility will have to undertake more mitigation actions, while those having less historical responsibility will have more space for development. In order to ensure that all parties fulfil their commitments and actions, a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system will be put in place.”

These developing countries argue that these steps are necessary in order to deal with the climate crisis through the establishment of a carbon budget approach that is designed and implemented according to equity, CBDR and historical responsibility. They demand that the carbon budget approach should be included in the UN Climate Convention decisions as one of the key solutions to ensure global temperature rise stays below 1.5°C. 

Reinhold Pape 

Air pollution still harms ecosystems

While acidification has been greatly reduced since its peak in 1980, emissions of nitrogen-containing air pollutants continue to damage more than half of sensitive ecosystems.

Editorial: Protect people and nature from air pollution

Since their peak around thirty years ago, emissions of air pollutants in Europe have come down significantly. Tougher emission standards for industry and road vehicles have resulted in less polluting power plants and cars.

Continued succes for renewables

Denmark got 41 per cent of its power from the wind in the first six months of 2014.  Renewables are advancing all over Europe.

Saving Turkey from coal

Turkey should stop the construction of new coal- and lignite-fired power stations and start phasing out the existing ones, says Greenpeace Mediterranean.

A fair share of climate responsibility

Annex 1 countries need to have negative emissions of 441 GtCO2 by 2050, according to a new equity proposal from several Latin American countries. 

Lignite power provides bargain-priced pollution

Combustion of lignite is one of the environmentally worst ways to generate energy. Even so, there is a continued increase in many parts of Europe.

Proposal for coal phase-out in Germany

BUND, a German environmental organisation, suggests a legally binding law to close all coal power stations by 2030.

Emissions are falling – but not enough

While emissions of acidifying sulphur pollutants in the EU have come down by 84 per cent since 1990, those of nitrogen compounds have fallen only by 41 per cent.

UK brought to court on bad air quality

New figures from the UK government show air quality in some of the country’s biggest cities will not meet European Union pollution limits until after 2030, twenty years after the original deadline.

Sustainable food choices

Excluding meat from our diet is not enough on its own to benefit the climate. Eating a lot of cheese or simply eating a lot of everything also leads to high greenhouse gas emissions.

New figures on global ship emissions

In 2012 worldwide shipping consumed some 300 million tonnes of fuel oil, resulting in emissions of 949 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. Unless concerted action is taken, these emissions are expected to grow by up to five times by 2050.

US to cut CO2 from existing power plants

By 2030, the CPP proposal should reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector by 30 per cent nationwide, compared to 2005 levels, and provide up to US$93 billion in climate and public health benefits

Carbon dioxide concentration surges

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased last year at the fastest rate for nearly 30 years, according to the latest data from the WMO.

EU’s Dirty thirty

The thirty most CO2-polluting power plants in Europe also cause 20 per cent of the health costs of the sector.

High diesel NOx emissions prevail

A study by Dutch consultancy TNO has found that in spite of facing a tighter NOx emissions limit of 80 mg/km, diesel-driven Euro 6 vehicles emitted around 500 mg/km in real-world driving circumstances, which means they are approximately equal to Euro 4 and Euro 5 vehicles.

Cracks found close to Norwegian CCS operation

An EU-funded project called ECO2 has investigated the influence of CO2 seeping from the Norweigan CCS project by the Sleipner gas field in the North Sea.

Norway invests in Dutch CCS

The Norwegian government cancelled its national CCS project in Mongstad in 2013 because of spiralling cost estimates for setting up a full-scale CCS plant. Instead, it will invest 14 million euro in a CCS demonstration project in Rotterdam in the Netherlands.

Vattenfall to co-operate on Canadian CCS

Vattenfall has stopped its CCS research in Europe, including Schwarze Pumpe CCS. The company has instead taken some first steps to cooperate with SASK Power in Canada and its Boundary Dam Power Station CCS project. 

Beijing shuts down big coal-fired power plant

Beijing has closed the first of four large coal-fired power plants set to be decommissioned as part of the city’s efforts to cut smog-forming air pollution. Beijing’s three remaining coal-fired power plants are all to be closed by the end of 2016.

The environment is important to Europeans

Despite the economic crisis, Europeans’ concern about the environment has not diminished. In an overwhelming consensus, 95 per cent of the 28,000 interviewed citizens said that protecting the environment is important to them personally and many think more can be done.

Shipping sulphur enforcement alliance grows

Nine more shipping companies have joined Maersk and Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WWL) by signing up to the Trident Alliance, an industry-led initiative to ensure enforcement of the stricter ship sulphur regulations, which was formally launched on July 7. 

Environmental classification of ships

A new report for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency provides an overview of the existing mechanisms for classifying ships with respect to their environmental and climate performance.

Large cruise ships banned from Venice

The Italian government is banning all cruise ships exceeding 96,000 tonnes from Venice’s historic centre and the Giudecca Canal from 2015, and is restricting visits by smaller ships of no more than 40,000 tonnes. 

Italy introduces ship emissions control rule

Stricter maritime sulphur rules regulating the Adriatic and Ionian seas are due to come into effect on 1 January 2018. The new rule would prohibit a sulphur content in bunker fuel of more than 0.10 per cent in both seas, according to an Italian government statement. 

New ozone standard assessment

On 31 August 2014 the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards released the final version of the policy assessment for the review of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS).

Electric vehicle sales surge

Sales of electric vehicles in Europe have doubled every year since 2010, and provisional figures for 2013 indicate that almost 50,000 plug-in vehicles were sold, i.e. around 0.4 per cent of all car sales in the EU.

Bulgaria and Latvia in need of air quality action

Bulgaria and Latvia have to improve protection for citizens from particulate matter (PM10) pollution. Citizens in all six zones and agglomerations in Bulgaria (AG Sofia, AG Plovdiv, AG Varna, North, South-West and South-East) have been exposed to excessive levels of PM10 since at least 2007.

Largest climate rally in history

On 21 September, two days before the big UN General Secretary’s climate summit, more than 310,000 people participated in the People’s Climate March in New York City.

Alternative Nobel prize for 350.org founder

Bill McKibben, founder of 350.org will be one of the recipients of this year’s Right Livelihood Awards, often called the “Alternative Nobel prize”.

Climate-smart agriculture – an issue of concern

On 23 September, at the Climate Summit, the UN launched a Global Alliance for Climate-Smart Agriculture.  More than 20 governments, and 30 organisations and private companies have already announced that they will join.