Climate change and the forests in Poland

1. Climate change in Poland today and in the perspective of 2100

The climate in Poland is changing as a result of rising temperatures. Because the land heats up faster and the temperature in areas at high latitudes rises faster, the increase in Poland is more than 2°C compared to the pre-industrial period (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. Average annual air temperature in Poland 1950–2022

Source: Naukaoklomacie.pl portal. In the graph, the black line shows data from individual seasons, and the red line is the 10-year moving average. Data: IMGW-PIB, Processing: Piotr Djaków, Meteomodel.pl.

Poland’s climate is characterised by a high degree of weather variability due to the movement of low-pressure systems from the North Atlantic, which bring precipitation and strong winds, followed by a period of calm associated with high-pressure systems. The second factor is climate change as a result of global warming, with an increase in average temperatures and a reduction in snowfall. In the last decade, the number of days with snow cover has fallen to a dozen or so in some places, compared with 40–50 days a year in the past, even in the warmest regions. According to Dr Mirosława Malinowska of the University of Gdańsk, “the climate will evolve towards a subtropical climate with two seasons – warm and dry and cool and wet” ¹. In the high-emissions scenario, with global warming of around 4°C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels, the temperature increase in Poland will be around 6°C. In the moderate emission scenarios, the temperature increase will be lower at 2.8°C and 4°C respectively. The growing season will become longer with more frequent droughts and weather extremes, and soil moisture and groundwater levels will decrease. In summer, the heat will become increasingly severe, exhausting and harmful to vegetation. Several days a year with temperatures above 35°C are expected in the medium-emissions scenario, and even above 40°C in the high-emissions scenario. The above changes will favour wildfires; on the other hand, long periods without rain will be interrupted by sudden and heavy rainfall. The frequency of extreme weather events and disasters will increase, including the risk of floods and landslides, as well as thunderstorms accompanied by violent wind gusts.²

Climate change will hit forest ecosystems harder and faster, and they will not be able to adapt. This is eloquently illustrated by Prof. Krzysztof Świerkosz of Wrocław University: “...try to imagine the Białowieża Forest in a Mediterranean climate. Weakened trees will wither during droughts, burn in fires during heat waves and succumb to increasing pest infestations – either way they will die because they will be in a climate unsuitable for them – spruce trees are already increasingly affected. Of course, new plants will grow in their place that are better adapted to the changed conditions, but by the time the trees reach maturity, the climate zones may have changed even more. The image of tall, humming forests with colourful carpets of spring flowers that we have stored deep in our hearts and minds will be a thing of the past. Most of them will turn into low formations of 15, 20 metres and even lower”³. According to a forecast by the Polish Academy of Sciences, today’s 30- to 40-year-olds could see 75 percent of the trees disappear from Poland’s forests. The tree species that will survive the changes are silver fir, beech, ash, holm oak and sessile oak. However, Scots pine, Norway spruce, European larch and red-bellied birch are expected to become much rarer.⁴

2. Absorption of CO₂ by forests and wood

The main role of forests in climate change mitigation is to absorb and permanently store carbon, thus removing it from the atmosphere. Forest ecosystems in Poland absorb significant amounts of CO₂ due to their complex structure and canopy system. Swamp forests are the most efficient in this respect, acting as a proverbial “carbon store”. This element taken from the atmosphere is stored in all parts of the trees, where it accumulates for decades. Plants exhale CO₂, however, and it is also released as organic matter decomposes. Young and middle-aged stands absorb significantly more CO₂ than older stands, and semi-natural and natural forests absorb more than plantations. In other words, pine starts to absorb more after 7–8 years, with a peak at 30–40 years of age. After that, the process slows down, with absorption decreasing as the forest ages until it reaches a zero balance.⁵ The sustainability of sequestration depends on both the management practices of the area and the use of the harvested wood. If it is used as fuel, carbon oxidation occurs immediately. If the wood is used as construction material or furniture, the carbon is stored much more permanently. The magnitude of the carbon balance in forestry is also influenced by how the forest is harvested and regenerated. Forests that do not grow do not prevent climate change, but they do mitigate it. Forests without an increase in area do not prevent climate change but mitigate it and store significant amounts of carbon from the burning of fossil fuels quite permanently.

In 2018, the amount of carbon sequestered by Polish forests was estimated at 36.1 tonnes CO₂eq, which is about 120 percent more than in 1988. Unfortunately, according to forecasts, this state of affairs will not be maintained in the long term; according to government projections, the amount of annual sequestration will gradually decrease, and by 2040 emissions are even expected to increase. This will be the result of two processes: a decrease in the rate of afforestation and the ageing of Polish forests (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. Historical and projected removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in million tonnes CO_2eq

This unfavourable trend is occurring despite the fact that the National Forestry Policy aims to increase CO2sequestration by improving forest vitality and preventing deforestation, reforestation and afforestation.

3. Current dilemmas of forest management and climate⁶

Poland has not yet developed a strategy and implementation programme defining a path towards climate neutrality. There are also no clearly and unambiguously defined measures to support climate policy objectives in LULUCF. The “National Energy and Climate Plan 2021–2030” does not set out a strategy to achieve climate neutrality, but only a pathway to achieve the climate targets adopted by the EU for 2030. In this document, the targets and measures to be implemented in the LULUCF sector are described in very general terms.⁷ The development of such a strategy should therefore be considered as a key recommendation. It would indicate the methods and instruments to be used to achieve the objective. It is also important because it would make it possible to launch a public debate on the issue.

The forest area in Poland should increase by at least 550,000 to 1 million ha by 2050. This will make it possible to slow down the declining trend in carbon sequestration and storage by forests through additional sequestration in newly afforested areas. For this to be possible, a system of support for the conversion of agricultural land to forest (e.g. through the introduction of forest-environment payments) needs to be put in place.

A detailed inventory and assessment of the functioning of systems regulating water relations in forest ecosystems should be carried out. These should serve to improve water relations in forested areas, soil water retention and contribute to the conservation of carbon stored in wetlands and even increase their accumulation potential.

It is important to maximise the use of mixed cuts and natural regeneration of the forest, with particular attention to the protection of the soil cover (regardless of the cut), which will increase the carbon retention time of dead organic matter and thus reduce the emissions that generally accompany the generational replacement of the forest.

It is essential to expand forest education. Multifunctional forest management now requires a change in perception and understanding. This process can be strengthened by raising public awareness of the growing role of ecosystem services provided by forests.

A research programme should be launched to identify opportunities to enhance the role of Polish forests in climate change mitigation. This research should cover the diversity of forests in a representative way and make it possible to identify opportunities for CO₂ sequestration, carbon storage and ways to increase the permanence of this storage by forests, taking into account their variability.

Consideration should also be given to revising the estimates of carbon emissions and removals from the sector and forestry in Poland. The assessment should be holistic and include all pathways of carbon sequestration and release from forest ecosystems.

4. Instead of a conclusion

For the past eight years, forest management in Poland has been carried out in contravention of EU law and nature conservation requirements, without real public participation and without taking into account the challenges in an era of climate change and declining biodiversity. Massive deforestation and uncontrolled timber exports abroad have continued throughout Poland during this period, and society has been powerless. Environmental organisations and experts have been calling for a completely different model of forest management for years. The new government, formed in December 2023, announced significant changes in forest and climate policy. A new Director General of State Forests has been appointed to clean up forest management, especially the principles of timber sales, and bring them into line with ecological requirements and public expectations. The aim is to exclude the most ecologically valuable areas of the forests from logging and to allocate them only to natural and social functions, and to ensure social monitoring of the forests. The NGO Coalition in the Forest Manifesto is calling for 20% of forests to be permanently excluded from economic use. The new Minister of Climate and Environment announced the preparation of a strategy to achieve climate neutrality in Poland, including a timeframe and sources of funding. A draft climate change bill has been prepared.

Early in January this year the Minister of Climate and Environment decided to stop or limit logging in the most valuable forest areas for six months. This represents 1.5 percent of the total forest area under the management of the State Forests. The Minister said that the decision was an emergency measure and that the Ministry was working on a systemic solution to cover a larger area, but that this would be done in consultation with foresters, local authorities and local communities. Strict protection over the next six years is expected to cover 10 percent of the forests, which is half the amount called for in the above-mentioned Manifesto. It is worth noting that the above decision is in line with the position of the Committee on the Climate Crisis of the Polish Academy of Sciences, which calls primarily for:

immediate reduction or elimination of tree felling (especially deciduous trees) in protected areas and their immediate vicinity, in mountainous areas, in the valleys of watercourses and in the most naturally valuable areas;establishment of a moratorium on the felling of old-growth and native trees until their resources have been nationally identified and can be protected;protection and promotion of the restoration of forest wetlands and all other natural forms of water retention in forested areas.The changes initiated in the Polish forest management system promise to make reference to the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030.

Notes

1 https://ug.edu.pl/news/pl/4580/nasz-klimat-ewoluuje-w-strone-klimatu-z-dwoma-porami-roku-rozmowa-z-dr-miroslawa-malinowska2 https://naukaoklimacie.pl/aktualnosci/zmiana-klimatu-w-polsce-na-mapkach-4683. Polskie lasy a zmiana klimatu - skutki globalnego ocieplenia (naukaoklimacie.pl)4. https://naukawpolsce.pl/aktualnosci/news%2C78437%2Cnaukowcy-z-pan-prognozuja-za-kilkadziesiat-lat-z-polskich-lasow-moze-zniknac5 https://smoglab.pl/las-pozytywnie-wplywa-na-klimat/6 Much of the chapter is based on the Fundacja WWF Polska (2020). Zeroemisyjna Polska 2050 https://www.wwf.pl/ZeroemisyjnaPolska7 https://www.gov.pl/web/aktywa-panstwowe/krajowy-plan-na-rzecz-energii-i-klimatu-na-lata-2021-2030-przekazany-do-ke

Andrzej KassenbergInstitute for Sustainable Developmenta.kassenberg@ine-isd,org.ol