Global climate targets

Countries committing explicitly to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.

When adopting the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement governments committed to “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. The Paris Agreement thus went beyond what was agreed in the 2009 Copenhagen Accord which called to “hold the increase in global temperature below 2°C” while also agreeing to consider (by 2015) strengthening the long-term goal to 1.5°C) by adding “well below” to the 2°C target and connecting this well below 2°C target with the 1.5°C target. The Paris Agreement however did lead to some ambiguity as some decision-makers interpreted the agreement as offering an option to choose between 1.5°C or (well below) 2°C as the long-term goal that frames their climate action, while many others indicated that the Paris Agreement's long-term goal should be seen as complimentary, allowing temperature rise to (slightly) overshoot 1.5° but arriving at 1.5°C by 2100. This view has now been confirmed by the outcomes of COP27 (November 2022), the G20 Leaders Summit in Bali (Indonesia) and the G7 Leaders Summit in Schloss Elmau (Germany), all committing explicitly to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Source and further reading from AirClim publications:

1.5°C Pathways for the EU27: accelerating climate action to deliver the Paris Agreement

This report presents technically feasible 1.5°C compatible energy and emissions pathways for the EU27 and assesses whether the EU’s current 2030 climate targets are aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The report finds that, to be 1.5°C compatible, the EU27 would need to cut its domestic emissions faster than currently planned.

Northern forests, climate change and the UNFCCC

Forests have a great potential to deliver on climate mitigation (and adaptation) while at the same time providing important benefits to biodiversity and the indigenous peoples who depend on them. Forests and their soils store approximately 60% of the total carbon stock contained in terrestrial carbon pools while emissions from deforestation and forest degradation account for around 30% of global carbon emissions. The Briefing is discussing options how to establish a negotiation process in the UNFCCC to protect forests. In general, the current land use rules in the UNFCCC fail to recognise the importance of protecting and restoring carbon stocks in natural ecosystems - notably primary and other natural forests as these rules ignore the importance of forest ecosystem integrity for reducing risk and improving longevity of carbon storage.

No further discussion needed. The agreed global goal is to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C

The agreed global goal is to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C. Now countries must act to make this happen. This briefing explains the scientific and political process which led to countries committing explicitly to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C. Instrumental to these decisions was a process called: the Periodic Review of the long-term global goal under the Convention and of overall progress towards achieving it (PR2). The briefing also gives an overview how the Kyoto Protocol was implemented and which greenhouse gas reductions were achieved.

Temperature overshoot The concept of temporarily going beyond 1.5°C

Temperature overshoot The concept of temporarily going beyond 1.5°C

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to make an effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C as going beyond that temperature limit would bring severe negative impacts, in particular for those most vulnerable. While not explicit in the text, it is generally understood that the objective is to ensure temperature rise is limited to 1.5°C by 2100. As substantial climate action has been delayed over and over again, almost all 1.5°C consistent scientific pathways for the future foresee peak temperatures potentially going beyond 1.5°C during the course of the century, with temperatures being reduced to 1.5°C or below by 2100. This concept of average temperature rise going temporarily beyond 1.5°C and then being reduced is referred to as temperature overshoot. This briefing explains and discusses this concept and the risks.

The science of temperature overshots

The science of temperature overshoots

Impacts, uncertainties and implications for near-term emissions reductions. Authors Experts from Climate Analytics: Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Uta Klönne,  Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Climate Analytics

Overview briefing on the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of the 1.5°C

The report explains that limiting warming to 1.5°C avoids the worst impacts of climate, highlights climate change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C and that it is clear that limiting warming to 1.5°C is still possible even when accounting for uncertainties and feedbacks in the climate system. Authors Experts from Climate Analytics: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexandrine Lanson, Susanne Baur, Claire Fyson, Thessa Beck, Corinne Kowalski, Alexander Nauels

Overview briefing on the the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land

Authors Experts from Climate Analytics: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexandrine Lanson, Susanne Baur, Claire Fyson, Thessa Beck, Corinne Kowalski, Alexander Nauels

Overview briefing on the IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere

Authors Experts from Climate Analytics: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexandrine Lanson,  Susanne Baur, Claire Fyson,  Thessa Beck, Corinne Kowalski, Alexander Nauels

Adequacy and feasibility of the 1.5°C long-term global limit

In 2010 in Cancun Climate Convention Parties agreed to review the global goal of max. 2°C warming.

To manage or to protect?

The fate of the vast boreal forest belt of the northern hemisphere is crucial for global climate. This report looks into our possibilities to protect and manage these forests for climate mitigation.