Zero In – CONSTRAIN study show green recovery could cut the rate of temperature rise by up to half

With global temperatures now almost 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement means taking urgent and decisive global action. A new report shows that slowing down global warming can be combined with tackling the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 and that a green recovery could cut the rate of temperature rise by up to half. Where are we are in terms of the Paris Agreement Long-Term Temperature Goal (LTTG)?

The Paris Agreement reflects global, human-induced long-term temperature change that excludes the short-term natural variability in the climate system. Exceeding 1.5°C warming during one or more years as the result of year-to-year variability therefore does not mean that the Paris Agreement LTTG has been reached or exceeded. Measuring where we are now with respect to the LTTG means using the same approach that was used to set it, following the best available science at the time, as set out in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

This includes looking forward from a modern reference period (1986-2005), and so scientific advances in establishing how temperatures changed before this time will not affect our trajectory towards the 1.5°C limit. Overall, reaching or exceeding 1.5°C warming in a single year, month or location does not mean that the LTTG has been breached, as long as human-induced warming still falls below 1.5°C. It is unlikely that human-induced warming will reach 1.5°C above pre- industrial levels in the next decade.

Integrating hard and fast climate action with Covid economic recovery packages could, over the next 20 years, slow down human-induced global warming by up to half the rate we have experienced since 2000, giving us vital time and space to adapt to future climate impacts. This “strong green recovery”, investing just 1.2% of GDP in green technologies and industries, whilst refusing to bail out fossil fuel companies, could also cut the total amount of warming by 2050, putting us back on track to stay within the LTTG’s 1.5°C limit. Such a green recovery is urgently needed as the carbon budget continues to be depleted despite a record fall in annual CO₂ emissions from 2019 to 2020. The report assess the remaining carbon budget for staying below 1.5°C to be 355 Gt CO₂ (50% probability).

Compiled by Reinhold Pape

Source:

https://constrain-eu.org/news/

https://constrain-eu.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Constrain-Report-202...

https://climateanalytics.org/projects/constrain/

CONSTRAIN hosted a Special Event at the 2020 UNFCCC Climate Dialogues:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHyjOvsbpRg&feature=youtu.be

In this issue

Ocean acidification increases the agony of the Baltic Sea

Because of low alkalinity and high primary production, the daily fluctuation of pH in the surface water is already high, and ocean acidification is projected to increase this variation further.

Editorial

Marine areas around the world face dramatic changes related to the release of greenhouse gases. Some of these changes — such as marine heat waves already proven devastating to coral reefs — are directly related to the temperature regimes experienced by the organisms. In addition, there is a whole list of other changes that occur concurrently.

Improved air quality could save 200,000 lives per year

Reducing urban air pollution in 31 European countries to below the WHO recommended levels could prevent more than 50,000 deaths per year, and if the cities manage to bring down air pollution in line with the lowest measured levels, over 200,000 annual deaths could be prevented.

EU Clean Air Outlook

The annual health benefits of additional measures needed to achieve the 2030 national emissions ceilings are estimated at €12–43 billion, up to 31 times higher than the estimated costs.

EU countries falling short of air pollution targets

All but two EU member states have failed to show how they will cut air pollution to comply with the National Emission Ceilings Directive, a troubling new report finds.

Renewables have reduced environmental pressures in EU

A new study shows that the increase in renewable electricity has reduced the EU’s climate change impact as well as land, air and water pollution. Targeted actions will further reduce environmental impacts of the energy transtition.

Estonia: from shale to gale

Rising CO₂ emission quota prices finally seem to have pushed oil shale power off the energy market in Estonia.

Net zero air travel? Climate-positive hamburgers?

Carbon offsetting under the CDM produces extraordinary claims. Don’t believe them, says the Swedish broadsheet Dagens Nyheter.

Towards sustainability of marine governance

EU member states are currently developing Marine Spatial Plans, a key tool to improve cross-sector cooperation and minimise spatial conflicts. Multiple useful reports provide best-practice examples and policy recommendations.

Phasing out fossil gas power stations in Europe by 2030

Presenting a list of gas-fired power stations in the EU and the UK that should be closed within the next 10 years.

Zero In – CONSTRAIN study show green recovery could cut the rate of temperature rise by up to half

In this issue

Ocean acidification increases the agony of the Baltic Sea

Editorial

Improved air quality could save 200,000 lives per year

EU Clean Air Outlook

EU countries falling short of air pollution targets

Renewables have reduced environmental pressures in EU

Estonia: from shale to gale

Net zero air travel? Climate-positive hamburgers?

Towards sustainability of marine governance

Phasing out fossil gas power stations in Europe by 2030

In Breif

100% renewable electricity supply is possible by 2030

Meeting Paris goals and phasing out fossil fuels could save “millions of lives”

UN Secretary General urges all countries to declare climate emergency

Bulgaria and Greece to go to court for air quality breaches

Hungary breached EU air pollution limits

Domestic wood burning biggest PM emitter in the UK

Major emitters of air pollution often overlooked

Close links between air pollution and climate action

Ocean Acidification Action Week initated by the BALSAM-project, 3-9 May 2021

Decarbonising the shipping industry

Rules of the Paris Agreement

Slow progress on proposal to modernise Energy Charter Treaty

Climate crimes must be brought to justice

Solar radiative management opposed

CAN conclusions on CCS

Fossil fuel air pollution caused 8.7m deaths globally

Clean Air Day 2021

Phase out scrubbers on ships

Support for Mediterranean Emission Control Area

Publications

Food for Thought

Northern forests, climate change and the UNFCCC

EU climate targets aligned with the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C objective

Baltic Sea Offshore Wind Collaborative-Learning project

Air pollution in Europe and children’s health

Climate Change: A Himalayan Odessey

No further discussion needed. The agreed global goal is to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C

Fossil-free electricity 2021

What we do

Air pollution

Climate Change

Policy initiatives

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