Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from international shipping worldwide are projected to increase from 870 million tonnes to between 2000 and 3200 million tonnes (by a factor of 2.3 to 3.7) from 2007 levels by the year 2050 under business-as-usual scenarios.
A recent study commissioned by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has investigated the impact of energy efficiency measures agreed by the IMO earlier this year. It estimates that these measures could reduce emissions by 35-40 per cent below the business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2050, but also that absolute emissions will continue to grow.
The measures assessed are the energy efficiency design index (EEDI), to be introduced for new ships built after January 2013, and a wider requirement to develop ship energy efficiency management plans (SEEMPs) for all vessels. The regulations apply to all ships of 400 gross tonnage and above, and are expected to enter into force internationally on 1 January 2013.
By 2020, an average of 150 million tonnes (Mt) of annual CO2 reductions are estimated from the introduction of these measures, a figure that by 2030 will increase to 330 Mt. Compared to BAU, annual reductions in CO2 emissions and fuel consumed are estimated at between 13 and 23 per cent by 2020 and 2030, respectively.
These reductions translate into annual fuel cost savings of about US$50 billion in 2020 and about US$200 billion by 2030; using fuel price increase scenarios that take into account the switch to low-sulphur distillate fuel in 2020.
Despite the emission reduction potential resulting from EEDI and SEEMP regulations, the authors conclude that an absolute reduction in shipping's total CO2 emissions from the 2010 level appears not to be feasible with these two measures alone. For all scenarios, the projected growth in world trade outweighs the achieved emission reduction.
Source: IMO press release, 14 November 2011
Assessment of IMO mandated energy efficiency measures for international shipping. Estimated CO2 emission reductions from the introduction of mandatory technical and operational energy efficiency measures for ships. Report MEPC 63/INF.2 (31 October, 2011). By Lloyd's Register and DNV. Available at: www.imo.org
Previous claims that reducing CO2 emissions would make new cars unaffordable are shown to be unfounded in a new report by Transport and Environment. Quite the opposite, cars have actually become cheaper while becoming more carbon-efficient.
The social cost of carbon – or marginal damage caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions – has been estimated by a US government working group at US$21 in 2010. This is not a large number. It seems to suggest that we don't need to do much about climate change.
Economic analysis of the costs of air pollution damage to the United States shows that coal-fired power generation is under-regulated and incredibly costly.
Macro-economic factors have been the biggest influence on changes in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU over the past two decades. To achieve the needed reduction of 80-95 per cent by 2050 impact from policy must increase.
Between 80 and 90 per cent of the EU urban population is exposed to levels of harmful particulate matter (PM) exceeding the air quality guideline set by the World Health Organization, and more than 95 per cent is exposed to ozone exceeding this level.
GHG emissions from transport in the EU have increased by 27 per cent since 1990. Modest efficiency gains have been outpaced by growing demand.
In recent years the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has started to show signs of instability: ice shelves the size of European countries have broken off from coastal areas and glaciers have begun to accelerate into the ocean.
An insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system, is what we can expect if there is no radical change in the direction of policy, warned the International Energy Agency (IEA) when it launched the annual World Energy Outlook in November.
Questions and answers about the Kyoto Protocol by Climate Action Network Europe
The references documents for best available technique (BAT) for large combustion plants are under review. New issues like oil shale, firing of high-sulphur coal and greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride will be considered.