Sea levels might rise 2 metres for each degree of warming

Under a business-as-usual scenario, temperatures are expected to rise by four degrees compared to pre-industrial times by the end of the century. Photo: flickr.com Phillip C cc by

Prehistoric data has been used to simulate possible sea levels over the next two millenia.

In the long term, we can expect more than two metres of sea-level rise per degree of global warming, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows. Thermal expansion of seawater is the main reason for the 0.2 metres the oceans have risen so far. The melting of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica has only contributed to around 10 per cent of the global sea-level rise, since these systems respond significantly slower to higher temperatures. “The problem is: once heated out of balance, they simply don’t stop,” says Anders Levermann, lead author of the study.

The research team managed to simulate what will happen to sea levels over the next two millennia, by combining data on prehistoric sea levels with a physical model. “The Antarctic computer simulations were able to simulate the past five million years of ice history, and the other two ice models were directly calibrated against observational data – which in combination makes the scientists confident that these models are correctly estimating the future evolution of long-term sea-level rise,” says Peter Clark, co-author of the study.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, temperatures are expected to rise by four degrees compared to pre-industrial times by the end of the century. “Continuous sea-level rise is something we cannot avoid unless global temperatures go down again,” concludes Levermann. “Thus we can be absolutely certain that we need to adapt. Sea-level rise might be slow on time scales on which we elect governments, but it is inevitable and therefore highly relevant for almost everything we build along our coastlines, for many generations to come.”

Sources: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Press release 15 July 2013

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming. By Anders Levermann et al. Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (online edition), vol. 110 no. 34

In this issue

Warming can be limited to 1.5°C

There are reduction pathways that would make a global target of below 1.5°C possible, but they require negative CO₂ emissions in the second half of this century.

Editorial: Last warnings?

For the last 25 years environmental organisations around the world have been trying to warn the world about the threat of climate change and demand urgent and steep reductions in greenhouse gases.

Shale gas has lost its lustre

The “Golden Age” of shale gas, heralded by the International Energy Agency (IEA) a year ago, may not arrive after all, at least not in Europe. The promises of plenty, soon and cheap are not materialising.

EU energy tax reform stalled

Poland and Romania block even small steps toward technology-neutral fuel taxes in the EU.

Need for stronger EU action on air pollution

World Health Organization calls for tightening of Eurpean Union air quality standards.

Sea levels might rise 2 metres for each degree of warming

Prehistoric data has been used to simulate possible sea levels over the next two millenia.

Agreement on equity issues essential

The equity knot remains to be cut before we can see a new global climate agreement. Climate Action Network (CAN) has just launched a proposal.

Shipping air pollution costs €60 billion per year

Total health-related costs in Europe caused by air pollutant emissions from international shipping are expected to increase from €58 billion to €64 billion between 2000 and 2020.

Ship emissions down in the Baltic and North Sea

Switching to low-sulphur marine gas oil and lowering cruising speeds can reduce shipping emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases.

Air pollution causes 210,000 deaths each year

Road transportation and power plants are the leading causes of air-pollution-related deaths in the US, contributing to 53,000 and 52,000 early deaths respectively each year.

Fewer congestion charge exemptions

From 1 July, new cars in London will no longer be able to be registered for the Greener Vehicle Discount which gave cars with emissions under 100 grams of CO₂ per kilometre ..

Germany blocks CO2 deal for cars

The agreed CO₂ rules for cars are threatened by demands from Germany to re-open the negotiations.

High potential to further cut pollution from power plants

Emissions of the main air pollutants – sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and dust – could be significantly further reduced if the emission levels associated with the best available techniques were to be achieved.

New tool raises awareness of air pollution impact

Clean Air in London has launched a new app that warns people about the dangers of air pollution and gives advice about how they can protect themselves.

7th Environment Action Programme agreed

In late June, representatives from the outgoing Irish presidency and the European Parliament agreed the final text of the EU’s seventh environment action programme (7EAP) for the period to 2020.

Coal power must be replaced with green energy

An additional 32,000 life years would be lost every year if the coal-fired power plants currently under construction or being planned in the EU go into operation.

More food, less climate change

Improved meat production in Latin America and higher crop yields in Africa are key measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change, while improving food security.

New CAP deal: “little more than greenwash”

The new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the period 2014–2020 was sold as a green reform, when the Commission launched its proposal a bit more than a year ago. For the first time, direct payments, the EU budget’s biggest single expenditure, would require ..

400 ppm exceeded at Mauna Loa

The symbolic level of 400 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been exceeded at Mauna Loa in Hawaii for the first time since records began in 1958.

Where are air pollution science and policy heading?

Future directions in air pollution science and policy were the focus of an international workshop held in Gothenburg, Sweden in June 2013. Attention focused on international air pollution ..

Main menu

Sea levels might rise 2 metres for each degree of warming

In this issue

Warming can be limited to 1.5°C

Editorial: Last warnings?

Shale gas has lost its lustre

EU energy tax reform stalled

Need for stronger EU action on air pollution

Sea levels might rise 2 metres for each degree of warming

Agreement on equity issues essential

Shipping air pollution costs €60 billion per year

Ship emissions down in the Baltic and North Sea

Air pollution causes 210,000 deaths each year

Fewer congestion charge exemptions

Germany blocks CO2 deal for cars

High potential to further cut pollution from power plants

New tool raises awareness of air pollution impact

7th Environment Action Programme agreed

Coal power must be replaced with green energy

More food, less climate change

New CAP deal: “little more than greenwash”

400 ppm exceeded at Mauna Loa

Where are air pollution science and policy heading?

Publications

Food for Thought

Northern forests, climate change and the UNFCCC

EU climate targets aligned with the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C objective

Baltic Sea Offshore Wind Collaborative-Learning project

Air pollution in Europe and children’s health

Climate Change: A Himalayan Odessey

No further discussion needed. The agreed global goal is to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C

Fossil-free electricity 2021

What we do

Air pollution

Climate Change

Policy initiatives

Do Your Bit!