Improvements from the revison

Emission cuts under the new Gothenburg Protocol are expected to reduce health damage in Europe from PM_2.5 and ozone by 27 and 11 per cent, respectively, between 2000 and 2020.

Commitments under the revised Gothenburg Protocol will lead to significant reductions in the negative impacts of air pollution in Europe, according to a new analysis by IIASA. By 2020, mortality from exposure to PM_2.5 and ground-level ozone will fall by 27 and 11 per cent respectively. Forest and freshwater ecosystem areas exposed to acid deposition above the critical loads will shrink by more than 55 per cent. Less improvement is however expected for eutrophication, where the ecosystem areas with nitrogen depositions in excess of the critical loads will decline only by about 20 per cent.

Using the GAINS (Greenhouse gas – Air pollution Information and Simulation) computer model, the environmental improvements calculated to result from the emission reduction commitments of the revised Gothenburg Protocol have been compared to those previously estimated for the current legislation (CLE) baseline scenario and the maximum technically feasible reductions (MTFR) scenario.

As the revised protocol contains provisions for possible adjustments of base year emission inventories and/or emission reduction commitments, there is some uncertainty about the expected levels of emissions in 2020.
For Europe as a whole, IIASA has estimated that the emission reduction commitments between 2005 and 2020 under the revised protocol imply a decrease in emissions of SO₂, NOx, VOCs and PM_2.5 of 41, 31, 33 and 22 per cent, respectively, while emissions of NH₃ are expected to remain at the 2005 level (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Changes in European emissions in 2020 relative to 2005. The commitments of the revised Gothenburg Protocol are indicated by the bars, while the lines indicate the ranges between the ‘current legislation’ and the ‘maximum technically feasible reduction’ cases estimated by the GAINS model.

These numbers are clearly less ambitious than the ranges presented in 2011 to negotiators in the cost-effectiveness analysis (see AN 3/11). In fact, the agreed commitments are even less ambitious than those estimated to result in 2020 solely from implementing already existing emission control legislation.

It is pointed out that several factors may contribute to explain these differences, including differing views about the underlying projections for energy use and economic development, different assumptions about the effectiveness of emission control legislation, and uncertainties in emission inventories. Moreover, countries may also have introduced a “margin of safety” to safeguard against unexpected developments.

To facilitate comparisons with the original Gothenburg Protocol and the targets established in the EU’s Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) from 2005, changes in impact indicators were calculated using year 2000 as the reference year (in contrast to the emission reduction commitments in the revised protocol, which use 2005 as the base year).

It is estimated that the new agreed emission cuts will lead to significant reductions in the negative impacts of air pollution in Europe. By 2020, mortality from exposure to PM_2.5 and ground-level ozone will fall by 27 and 11 per cent respectively. Forest and freshwater ecosystem areas where acid deposition will remain above the critical loads will shrink by more than 55 per cent. Less improvement is however expected for eutrophication, where the ecosystem areas with nitrogen depositions in excess of the critical loads will decline by about 20 per cent (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Changes in impact indicators from the emission reduction commitments of the revised Gothenburg protocol compared to the TSAP targets of the EU.

There are, however, significant regional differences across Europe. In most cases improvements will be bigger in the EU than in the non-EU countries, primarily because several non-EU parties did not provide emission reduction commitments. In particular, health damage from ozone is expected to further increase in the non-EU countries compared to 2000.

While the cost-effectiveness analysis presented to negotiators demonstrated a potential for cost-effective abatement measures beyond the current legislation, for which the benefits exceeded costs by a factor of ten or more, the current protocol commitments do not even achieve the improvements estimated for the current legislation case.

The protocol commitments also fail to achieve several of the targets set in the TSAP. The revised protocol is expected to reduce the years of life lost (YOLLs) from exposure to PM_2.5 by 35 per cent in the EU, which means that additional measures will be necessary to meet the 47 per cent target of the TSAP. For eutrophication, the revised protocol is expected to deliver about half of the TSAP target (15 per cent improvement instead of 31 per cent) and for forest acidification 60 per cent improvement instead of 74 per cent. For water acidification and health damage from ground-level ozone, the TSAP targets are however likely to be achieved.

Christer Ågren

Environmental improvements of the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol. CIAM report 1/2012, preliminary version May 2012. By M Amann, et al. IIASA.

Note: For those (non-EU) parties that did not provide figures on reduction commitments to the Executive Body in May, the calculations by IIASA assume that emission levels in 2020 will remain the same as in 2005. For international shipping, emission levels in 2020 in line with implementation of the 2008 MARPOL Annex VI agreement of the International Maritime Organization were assumed. The calculations presented in the IIASA report are based on the emission reduction commitments relative to the emission levels for 2005 that have been estimated in GAINS based on the EMEP 2011 inventory.

In this issue

Editorial: Still a long way to go

In early May, after five years of negotiation, countries in Europe and North America agreed to take on new emission reduction commitments for the major air pollutants, by adopting a revised Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution ..

Health effects of black carbon

Reducing people’s exposure to PM_2.5 containing black carbon should lead to a reduction in the health effects associated with PM.

Air pollution from traffic kills 5000 a year in UK

Premature deaths due to PM_2.5 are estimated to cost the UK between €7.5-77 billion every year, corresponding to 0.4-3.5 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.

Ozone levels still much too high

In the summer of 2011, the threshold for protecting human health from ozone was exceeded on more than 25 days in a significant part of Europe.

Europe’s most polluting power plants

Eight of the twelve largest single sources of carbon dioxide in Europe are found in Germany.

The arrival of a new EU sulphur law

The sulphur content of ship fuels will be cut to 0.1% from 2015 in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, and to 0.5% from 2020 in other EU waters. As a result, emissions of sulphur dioxide from shipping in Europe will come down by more than 80 per cent.

Welcome to the golden age of fracking

Fracking, exploitation of gas from shale, is growing fast. This is game-changing both for energy policy and climate policy. There is now more, and dirtier fossil gas around. The resistance is also growing, and fracking is banned in some countries.

Biggest environmental cause of mortality

A new OECD report says that by 2050 air pollution will become the biggest cause of premature death, killing an estimated 3.6 million people a year.

New Danish energy agreement

A massive expansion of wind power, reforms to promote biomass and an expansion of mandatory energy savings are the main features of the Danish energy agreement. The measures combined are estimated to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 34 per cent by 2020.