Editorial: EU delays critical action for 1.5°C target

Over the next months, the EU will negotiate a pathway and set a 2040 target outlining the steps required to meet the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement.Achieving the 1.5°C target remainson the agenda. A year ago, the IPCC the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report reaffirmed that limiting warming to 1.5°C is still within reach. UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized this urgency, warning that “the climate time-bomb is ticking ” but affirming that the 1.5°C limit remains achievable. The UN also concluded that global greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 to stay on track.

Unfortunately, the EU appears too weak to heed the UN’s call and contribute its fair share. Despite numerous appeals from scientists and NGOs to strengthen the EU’s 2030 target, these calls have gone unanswered. Instead, the EU is focusing on long-term targets for 2040 and 2050. The UN has made it clear that global greenhouse gas emissions must reach net zero by 2050 to meet the Paris Agreement target. To allow less-developed nations time to transition, rich EU countries must achieve net-zero emissions at least a decade earlier, by 2040. Their reluctance to do so is inexcusable.

The EU’s first priority in the next six months must be to strengthen its 2030 target. A key tool for achieving this will be the Emissions Trading System (ETS). The EU urgently needs to tighten the ETS to secure additional emissions reductions before 2030. It should be developed strictly within EU borders to function as an effective carbon pricing system. Any efforts to open the ETS to cheap emission credits from unreliable international trading under Article 6, or to incorporate diversionary and ineffective solutions like carbon removal technologies—such as CCS, BECCS, and DAC—must be firmly rejected.

The IPCC and civil society scenarios have shown that this is possible. Over the past two years, AirClim [1], has published six briefings that outline how the EU ETS can be made more effective.

The first briefing provides the scientific basis for why the EU's 2030 climate target of reducing GHG emissions by at least 55% is insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target. It emphasises that significant additional action across all economic sectors and by all EU member states is both necessary and achievable. It proposes several improvements to the ETS Directive, including rebasing emission levels on actual emissions and increasing the annual linear reduction factor. Another study highlights the need for the EU to adopt further measures to compensate for the slow pace of emission reductions since 2020.

The second publication presents various options for a more stringent design of the EU ETS, focusing on the ETS cap and the Market Stability Reserve (MSR). The third briefing outlines proposals for accelerating the decarbonization of European industry.

Briefing four provides an overview of the proposals for the ETS-2, covering road transport and buildings. Briefing five outlines the importance of addressing maritime transport emission, evaluates the proposal and puts it into context with developments on a global level. Briefing six is about fighting greenwashing and promoting the integrity of corporate climate action within and outside Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

All measures outlined in the briefings can be strengthened as needed to align with stricter EU targets for 2030 and 2040

Additionally, the EU must commit next year to a binding plan to phase out fossil fuels – coal before 2030, fossil gas by 2030 and oil by 2035 – to help meet the 1.5°C target. This should be accompanied by a reform of ecological and social taxes to support citizens through this transition.

The refences can be found in the online version of this article.
[1] as a contribution to the ETX Consortium, with help from the Oeko-Institut, Wuppertal Institute, CE Delft and other scientific and policy experts]