How to avoid critical levels of climate change?

The Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will hopefully have this month adopted the 2°C target from the Copenhagen Accord in a legal text. After many years of negotiation, a target has finally been formulated which the world believes needs to be met to avoid dangerous climate change and fulfil the objective of the Convention. This is a very big step forward!

But the year's climate science suggests that dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system cannot be ruled out at 1.5°C, and that various tipping points initiating severe damage may be triggered with between 0.5°C and 2°C of global warming. Examples are sea level rises threatening the existence of small island states; damage to communities and agricultural production in many countries; and threats to the survival of several global ecosystems due to climate change.

Today more than 100 countries support a 1.5°C target, and it must also be agreed to as a goal of the Climate Convention. Various scientific institutions, governments and NGOs are researching and developing new strategies on how to reach this goal. According to this research, climate policies in the next one to four years will be very important if the 1.5 or 2°C target is to be reached.

The research suggests that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must peak in coming years and at the latest by 2015, and be reduced drastically thereafter at rates of at least three per cent annually, if the world is to have a chance of reaching the 2°C goal. During 2010, global GHG emissions increased by three per cent.

What probability of success or chance of failure should the world accept when setting policies designed to reach these targets? The EU's latest scientific climate report (see article) is based on a 66 per cent probability of reaching the 2°C degrees target. This is an unacceptable large risk, given that it threatens any possibility of reaching a 1.5°C target. Instead, a probability of success of more than 90 per cent should be applied, given the high costs of failure.

Cumulative emissions of GHGs are the most important factor, and long-lived carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are responsible for 80 per cent of the greenhouse effect. Scientists have calculated what the remaining CO₂ emissions budget is which would allow temperatures to stay below 2 degrees. The results are frightening and show a very large gap between the commitments presented in the Copenhagen Accord and the reductions needed. Annually, the world is currently emitting around 30 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO₂ (2008 figures). The remaining budget of CO₂ emissions, if we are to have more than 90 per cent chance of reaching the 2°C target, is around 600 Gt of CO₂. This amount of CO₂ will be used up by the world in 20 years if the present level of emissions continues, and much faster if annual emissions continue to increase.

To address this very large gap between the necessary targets and present commitments, the science calls for much more immediate action to be taken by the world's governments. They should immediately develop a global emergency action programme for drastic reductions of all greenhouse gases over the next 20 to 30 years, and an assistance programme for developing countries of several hundred billion euros annually.

This action programme should be developed by agreeing to principles of fair allocation of the available carbon space and an appropriate effort sharing formula. The time for these decisions is many years overdue, and must now be taken at the last minute before the window to reach a 1. 5 or 2°C target is closed!

Reinhold Pape

In this issue

Extra time for non-road vehicles to meet limits

Manufacturers of tractors and engines used in non-road mobile machinery will need more time to meet already adopted stricter emission limits, according to the European Commission.

Air pollution and health in Asia

The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated in 2002 that over 500,000 deaths in Asia in the year 2000 were caused by outdoor air pollution exposure, accounting for approximately two thirds of the total global burden of deaths attributed to ambient air pollution.

Intercontinental transport of air pollutants

Throughout the northern hemisphere, intercontinental flows of important air pollutants, such as ozone and fine particles, have a significant impact on environmental quality.

Tougher emissions standards for motorcycles

European motorcycles should come with advanced anti-lock braking systems, cleaner engines and daytime headlights in order to reduce road deaths and pollution, according to new emissions and safety requirements for motorcycles and all other L-category vehicles proposed on 4 October by the European Commission.

Coal in Europe - states still support a dying industry

In this series of short articles, some of AirClim's partner organisations provide an insight into the domestic situation of the coal industry in Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine. Behind each article lies a larger report which can be found online. The articles describe a reality of continued state support for a crumbling crumbling industry that is damaging health, the environment, and national economies.

EU consults on marine fuels

The European Commission is seeking stakeholder input via an internet consultation on a forthcoming proposal to update the EU directive on the sulphur content of marine fuels.

Industrial Emissions Directive adopted

On 8 November the new Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) was formally adopted by the Council of Ministers. It updates and merges seven pieces of existing legislation on solvents, large combustion plants (LCPs), waste incineration, titanium dioxide production and integrated pollution prevention and control (IPPC).

More EU air quality failures

In late November the European Commission decided to take four more member states – Cyprus, Italy, Portugal and Spain – to the European Court of Justice for failing to comply with EU air quality limit values for airborne particles (PM₁₀).

Wind can provide 20% of electricity by 2030

Wind could meet twelve per cent of global power demand by 2020, and up to 22 per cent by 2030, according to a study published by the Global Wind Energy Council and Greenpeace International.

New analysis of national emissions ceilings

Additional measures to achieve the interim targets of the thematic strategy on air pollution would cost less than €3 per person in 2020, or less than one eurocent per day.

MEPs call for a binding energy efficiency target

On 9 November 2010 the European Parliament's Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE) Committee reiterated its call for a binding EU target on energy saving, a demand also made by the Environment Committee in October...

GHG emissions must peak by 2015

A new EU report highlights the urgency of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases if a 2°C target is to be met.