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Political development

The basis of international policy for cutting down emissions of greenhouse gases is the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It was signed in 1992 and came into effect in 1994.

It has as an "ultimate objective" the stabilizing of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system."

It is a stated principle of the convention that the industrialized nations, being responsible for by far the greatest part of the emissions, both now and in the past, should take the lead in combating climate change and its damaging effects.

The Kyoto protocol
A first step towards quantified commitments as a means of attaining the aim of the climate convention was taken when the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997. It entered into force in February 2005.

Under this protocol the industrialized nations have made legally binding undertakings with regard to their emissions of greenhouse gases for the period 1990 to 2008-2012 (average for the five years). Some countries will be allowed to increase their emissions, or freeze them at current levels, but most will have to make reductions (see table below). The overall reduction for the so-called Annex I countries (those listed in the table below) was expected to be 5.2 per cent when the protocol was signed.

The protocol embraces six greenhouse gases that are combined in a "basket", so that individual gases are translated into CO2 equivalents, which are then added up to produce a single figure.

Emissions from aviation and marine bunker fuels used in international transport do not enter into any national undertakings.

The United States - which answered for a good third of the Annex I countries' emissions of carbon dioxide in 1990 and has the world's largest emissions per capita - abandoned the protocol in 2001, with the excuse that it excluded 80 per cent of the world's population and would, moreover, be detrimental to the US economy.

In February 2002, President Bush presented a national policy on climate change, with voluntary targets that are likely to lead to an increase in emissions of more than 30 per cent over 1990 levels by 2010.

This increase in emissions in the US, combined with full exploitation of carbon sinks, is estimated to mean that the Annex I countries will increase their combined emissions over the period 1990-2012, instead of reducing them.

What will happen after 2012?

Negotiations concerning the next period for commitments (after 2012) has now started. So far, most of the developing countries have rejected all suggestions that they should cut emissions, maintaining that it is the rich countries that have caused the problem and they should therefore be the first to deal with it.

But the developing countries' emissions are increasing. The industrialized (Annex I) countries are most likely to demand some form of binding commitment from the developing ones for the period after 2012.

The progress in the Post-Kyoto process is regularly reported in Acid News, see links to relevant articles in the right hand column.

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Last modified: 27 March 2008.