No. 2, May 2004

Cover illustration © Lars-Erik Håkansson (Lehån)

Main articles in brief

Way off target
Most EU countries foresee difficulties in reducing their emissions of air pollutants sufficiently to meet the emission ceilings that are laid down in the NEC directive.

Air pollution trading - marketing failure
Emissions trading is not the success story it is so often made out to be, according to Curtis Moore.

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EDITORIAL

For or against emissions trading?

Is emissions trading really the success story it is so often made out to be? In light of the fact that emissions trading appears to be growing in popularity this is a highly pertinent question.

In the US, where this system has been practically applied for almost ten years to emissions of sulphur dioxide from power plants, a proposal to introduce a similar trading system for mercury emissions has led to intense debate.

One objection raised by environmental organizations is that the trading system is inappropriate for toxic air pollutants such as mercury, since it could give rise to more local hot spots.

In Europe the debate has so far centred primarily on the new EU directive on emissions trading for the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. It appears, however, that emissions trading is growing in popularity, and the debate in Europe is no longer solely about emissions of greenhouse gases.

In several EU member countries, including the Netherlands and the UK, there are more or less far-reaching plans to introduce trading systems for "traditional" air pollutants such as sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Proposals have also been put forward to introduce trading systems for emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides from international shipping.

There are many different sides to this question. Some people believe that systems that are based on emissions trading can be regarded as better - above all more cost-effective - than more traditional systems that are based on regulation (such as emission standards), and that they should therefore replace them.

One possible alternative may be to use regulation to set minimum standards, and then to use economic incentives, such as emissions trading, to achieve further reductions in emissions.

In light of the above there is also the question of whether emissions trading is possibly more appropriate for certain types of air pollutants, and less appropriate - or simply inappropriate - for others.

In those cases where emissions trading is considered, for various reasons, to be an appropriate alternative or complementary approach, the actual design and application of this instrument are of critical importance.

One issue is the initial allocation of "emission allowances". Should these be auctioned off or doled out free of charge? Although economic theory points clearly towards the former alternative, practical experience has so far been based exclusively on free distribution. This has often taken place according to the so-called grandfathering principle, which in practice means that those who have caused the most pollution in the past get the largest allocation to continue polluting.

Because there are clearly widely differing opinions about emissions trading and its role in environmental policy, today and in the future, an open debate on this question would be valuable.

This issue of Acid News therefore includes a debate feature that examines and questions emissions trading. It is hoped that this will promote further thought and discussion, and we welcome further contributions on this highly topical and important issue.

Christer Ågren

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NATIONAL EMISSION CEILINGS

Way off target

A new report¹ from the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC) of the European Environment Agency shows that most EU countries foresee difficulties in reducing their emissions of air pollutants sufficiently to meet the emission ceilings that are laid down in the national emission ceilings directive (2001/81/EC).

The NEC directive covers the four pollutants sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds and ammonia. Based on "business as usual" projections as reported by member states until 1 December 2003, only Finland and the UK will comply with all of their ceilings by 2010. If envisaged additional measures are considered, Germany will also meet all its emission ceilings.

On behalf of the European Commission’s Environment Directorate the ETC/ACC has examined whether each country’s report contains the information that is required according to the directive. On the basis of the information submitted by each country an evaluation was also carried out on emissions trends to date, as well as expected future emissions.

The study shows that there are major deficiencies in reporting. Four countries – Belgium, Greece, Ireland, and Luxembourg – had by 1 December 2003 still failed to report to the Commission how they propose to reduce their emissions of air pollutants so as to fulfil their commitments under the directive, despite the fact that the directive’s deadline elapsed over a year ago (Belgium had provided information for some of its regions, but not for the whole country). Moreover, many of those that have reported have failed to do as the directive requires – Spain, for example, failed to present any emission projections for 2010.

The national reports that were submitted (see table - available in pdf version only) reveal that the main problems foreseen by countries relate to emissions of nitrogen oxides, and that seven or eight – Austria, Denmark, Italy, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal (high projection) and Sweden – out of ten countries project emissions in 2010 that are higher than their ceilings. By comparison, only four (Denmark, France, the Netherlands and Portugal) out of ten predict that they will not meet their ceilings for sulphur dioxide.

It is however not easy to determine how great the difficulties for meeting the ceilings are, since most of the national programmes lack the information needed for an analysis, namely, quantitative estimates of the effect of the measures proposed or undertaken.

Almost half of the reporting countries failed to provide any quantification of the effect of policies and measures in terms of kilotonnes of pollutant emissions abated. Only three member states – France, Germany and the Netherlands – provided an additional projection for each pollutant incorporating the effect of both adopted and envisaged (planned) policies and measures.

To assess whether countries are on track to achieve their emission targets or not the ETC/ACC uses a "distance-to-target" indicator (see graphs below). This is a measure of the deviation of actual emissions in 2001 from a linear path between 1990 and 2010. Since the assumption of a linear emission trend is somewhat hypothetical, the report stresses that this analysis is only indicative.

Based on these assumptions, in 2001 eleven member states were heading towards not meeting their emission ceilings for nitrogen oxides. Portugal, Ireland, Austria, Spain and Belgium appear to have the biggest problems in meeting their emission ceilings.

The trend appears more encouraging for sulphur dioxide – in which case twelve countries are on the right course. Only Portugal, Ireland and Spain have emissions that lie above the target path.

Regarding volatile organic compounds, there are six countries – Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Luxembourg and Denmark – that look as if they may have problems meeting their emission ceilings. Again in the case of ammonia there were six countries whose emissions were "too high" in 2001, namely Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Ireland, Greece and Denmark.

Full and accurate reporting by the countries is highly important not only for the implementation of the directive, but also for its review and revision. This is necessary to provide the information for the report that the Commission has to produce in 2004, in accordance with Article 9 of the directive, and deliver to the EU Parliament and the Council of Ministers. In its report the Commission must describe what progress has been made towards achieving the national ceilings, and state the extent to which the interim environmental objectives of the directive are likely to have been met by 2010.

In its conclusions the ETC/ACC makes four recommendations in which it proposes that member states should:

• Report two scenarios – a "business as usual" projection including current policies and measures, and a "with additional measures" projection, accounting for planned policies and measures.
• Quantify the effect of individual measures and policies, whether planned, adopted, or implemented.
• Report on changes in the geographical distribution of their emissions – or if there is no change, then make this clear (this is already explicitly requested in the directive).
• Report on key socio-economic assumptions underlying their emission projections.

The report constitutes an input to the Commission’s forthcoming review of the NEC directive. According to the directive, this review should be completed in 2004.

Christer Ågren

¹ An initial assessment of Member States’ national programmes and projections under the national emission ceiling directive (2001/81/EC). Summary paper. ETC-ACC Technical Paper 2003-8, published in April 2004. Available at http://air-climate.eionet.eu.int/announcements/ann1082666299

The reports on national programmes received by the Commission can be found on the environment directorate’s website.

Business as usual’ (BAU) projections for 2010 under the NEC directive. 2002 submission reported until 1 December 2003.

Distance-to-target" indicators for the targets in the NEC directive.

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LARGE COMBUSTION PLANTS

Majority of worst emitters are found in just a few countries

Coal-fired power plants dominate the twenty worst emitters, not only of carbon dioxide but also of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, in the former fifteen EU member countries. Five plants are among the twenty worst for all three pollutants.

Carbon dioxide
German plants fired with lignite are among the worst in respect of carbon dioxide. They are mainly situated close to the areas in western and eastern Germany where the deposits of lignite are found. But three British, two Greek and four Italian plants also figure in the list, as do one Spanish and one Portuguese. Of the twenty largest emitters, nineteen were power plants.

See table

Sulphur dioxide
Topping the list for sulphur dioxide is the coal-fired Puentes As Pontes power plant in Galicia, in the northwest of Spain. The plant is also among those topping the lists for carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Because of the stricter regulations for emissions that will take effect in the EU in 2008 (through the LCP directive), the plant’s owners have decided to install emission control equipment that will reduce the emissions of sulphur dioxide by 95 per cent.

Second highest as regards sulphur dioxide is the Megalopolis A (I, II, III) complex on the Peloponnese peninsula in Greece. Close by is Megalopolis B (IV), with emissions of sulphur dioxide approaching 28,000 tonnes a year. All are fired with lignite from local deposits.

Third on the sulphur list is yet another Spanish power plant – at Teruel in the northeast of the country – and there are three more Spanish plants among the twenty greatest emitters of sulphur dioxide.

Half of those on the list are however British plants. It is worth noting on the other hand that, owing to strict national regulations, there is not a single German plant there – despite the fact that Germany has several of the largest coal-fired power plants in the EU15. Eighteen of the twenty largest emitters of sulphur dioxide in the EU15 are power plants.
See table

Nitrogen oxides
British plants also account for about half of the twenty worst emitters of nitrogen oxides. The only German plant on the list is Jänschwalde, which is also the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the EU15. Of the twenty largest sources of nitrogen oxides, eighteen were power plants.

Five plants are among the twenty worst on all three lists. They are Drax and Longannet in the UK, Puentes As Pontes in Spain, Sines in Portugal and Taranto in Italy. The Greek Megalopolis can also be included if the A and B plants are considered together.
See table

The new member countries
All the above figures are for 2001. Information on emissions in 2004 will be published in 2006, and include figures for the ten new members of the EU as well. Data already exists however for Hungary, where two coal-fired power plants, Oroszlányi and Mátra, have emissions of sulphur dioxide large enough (87,000 and 43,000 tonnes respectively) to appear on the present twenty-worst list.

Per Elvingson
Christer Ågren

How to use the register

Start at www.eper.cec.eu.int/eper/

By using the search function, data can be obtained for individual plants, for all the plants in one country as well as for the whole of the EU, for each of the 50 pollutants that are included.

We obtained the figures in the adjoining tables by choosing the Pollutants option under EPER Search, and then proceeding to the required pollutant and the emissions for the whole EU15 area.

The first page that appears when you do such a search gives a summary. Under the heading "Facilities" the member states are listed as well as the number of plants in each country and for the EU15 as a whole.

Selecting the figure showing the number of plants (say, 1238 for sulphur dioxide in the EU15) brings up a list of all the plants, which can then be arranged in order of emissions.

Selecting the particular plant’s name brings up a page showing its location, type, and the pollutants it emits. In most cases satellite pictures are also shown.

One can also find the location of a particular plant by clicking on maps (select Map search on the home page).


The 20 worst in 2001 for carbon dioxide (EU15).

The 20 worst in 2001 for sulphur dioxide (EU15).

The 20 worst in 2001 for nitrogen oxides (EU15).

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LARGE COMBUSTION PLANTS

The biggest lignite-fired power plant in Europe

In 2000 the emissions of sulphur dioxide from Belchatow amounted to some 230,000 tonnes.

With a capacity of more than 4,400 MW, the Belchatow power plant in Poland is the biggest fired by lignite in Europe. While in generation capacity it represents approximately 15 per cent of the country’s total installed power, it in fact supplies almost 20 per cent of Poland’s power, mainly because it offers the lowest priced electricity on the Polish market.

The plant is located in mid-Poland, 180 km southwest of Warsaw, not far from the cities of Lodz and Belchatow, in a small village called Rogowiec. The reason for locating it there was the discovery in 1960 of a rich deposit – with some 2 billion tonnes of lignite – near Belchatow. Exploitation started in 1980 as a strip pit mine.

The power plant is located about two kilometres from the mine, and the first block came into operation in December 1981. Over the following six years, additional blocks were constructed, with the result that a total of twelve blocks have been brought into operation since 1988. Following modernization between 1999 and 2004, each will have a rated capacity of 370 MW, resulting in a total of 4,440 MW.

Each block consists of a steam boiler, a turbine and a generator. The three newest blocks have been constructed for the combined production of heat and power, together supplying some 600,000 MWh of heat to the city of Belchatow.

Because the lignite from the mine has to be brought on conveyors, the distance between the power plant and the mine has to be limited to avoid extra cost.

The Belchatow lignite is of declining quality, with increasing contents of sulphur and ash. Between 1995 and 2000 the ash content increased from about 8 to above 11 per cent, and average sulphur content from 0.6 to over 0.8 per cent, and the levels are still rising.

The quality will continue to worsen and it is presumed that the bed will be either exhausted or extraction will become impractical within the next 10 to 15 years. Since geological investigations have revealed an extension of the bed, a new mine is being opened a few kilometres further away, near the village of Sczercow. This new mine will supply lignite, but to a new power plant. As mentioned above, lignite supply is economically justified only when transported by conveyors, and the most economical solution was to construct a new plant – Belchatow II – close to the new mine.

The tender for the new 833 MW Belchatow II has been announced, and construction is expected to start this year, followed by operation in 2007. It will be run by ELBIS, a newly created company.

Environmental performance
The yearly average lignite consumption over the five-year period 1996 to 2000 amounted to around 35 million tonnes, resulting in annual emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide of approximately 24 million tonnes.

In 2000 the emissions of sulphur dioxide from Belchatow amounted to some 230,000 tonnes, or about 15 per cent of the country’s total emissions.

Construction of desulphurization installations started in 1994, so that by the end of 2003 eight blocks were so equipped. The four oldest have no desulphurization.

Emission control is based on calcium-gypsum wet technology. The desulphurizing efficiency is quite high – in 2002 about 94 per cent of the sulphur was captured. That same year, desulphurization had been retrofitted to six of the twelve blocks, and emissions of sulphur dioxide had been further reduced to 174,000 tonnes. If all blocks are fully retrofitted, annual emissions are projected to come down to less than 50,000 tonnes.

Although the desulphurization technology generates significant amounts of gypsum as a by-product, fortunately it is of fairly good quality and can practically all be utilized for making construction material.

Emissions of nitrogen oxides are being reduced only by primary methods, i.e. by modifying combustion. Compared to the previous situation, these modifications have resulted in emission reductions of about 40 per cent. Annual emissions of nitrogen oxides amount to approximately 40,000 tonnes.

Compared to some other Polish power plants, Belchatow is relatively new and was constructed using advanced technologies. On the other hand, despite considerable progress, the Belchatow power plant and lignite mine together represent one of the biggest projects in Europe as regards impact on the natural environment.

Legal phpects
In general, Belchatow complies with Polish environmental law. According to the IPPC directive (96/61/EC), which was incorporated in Polish Environmental Law in 2001, it should obtain a so-called integrated permit as a pre-condition of operation after 2007. The directive involves employing BATs (Best Available Technique) as one of the conditions of future operation. The BATs are described in so-called BREF notes. The BREF for large combustion plants is currently in the final stages of preparation, and will be adopted later this year. It is expected to set strict guidance on requirements regarding environmental performance.

In April 2003 Belchatow was granted an integrated permit under the IPPC directive – the first integrated permit issued in Poland and valid for the next ten years. To obtain it, Belchatow had participated in a pilot project with the support of Danish funds and specialists, making it possible to avoid obligations to fulfil the more strict regulations and benchmarks laid down in the new LCP directive (2001/80/EC) and draft BREF for LCPs that are currently being finalized.

According to the rules, both the application and the permit should be public documents, and the nature of the pilot project has led to increased expectations of a very open and truly public discussion.

Neither the application nor the permit are however available from the website of the pilot project or the Lodz Voivodship which issued the permit. Moreover, the Ministry of Environment, the beneficiary of the pilot project, does not allow these documents to be reviewed using its internet service. It seems that some people have forgotten that integrated permits are subject to reporting and monitoring within the EU, as regulated by Decision 2000/479/EC on reporting and registering of emissions.

Future developments
Belchatow supplies electricity to the Polish Power Grid (PSE) through five regional distributors in western Poland and some other local and regional distributors. In 2000 about 5 per cent of the energy in Poland was sold on the market, an amount that is expected to grow. Prices offered by Belchatow (and presumably by ELBIS) are still very competitive.

Other transactions, even long-distance ones, are also probable. The Laziska Steel Mill located in Silesia, close to the Czech border, has for instance recently contracted for a supply of electricity from the Konin power plant in central Poland. Developments in the energy market can, however, lead to other patterns of transactions, possibly reflecting commercial links between the distributors and producers of energy.

The Belchatow plant is a state-owned enterprise (as is the new ELBIS), although theoretically it could – like other companies in the energy sector – be subject to privatization.

Belchatow has a long-term-contract with the Polish power grid. This mechanism was used to support investments by providing a guarantee of a high price for energy sold to PSE, valid for several years. This is however in contravention of EU rules on fair competition, and to comply with EU legislation it will have to be terminated. The government will nevertheless pay compensation. In the case of Belchatow, the assessed value is around PLN 1 billion (ca 200 million euros), a sum that could roughly cover the cost of building the new Belchatow II power plant.

For the future it has been proposed that one of Belchatow’s boilers could be used for burning oilseed rape (Brassica oleifera) straw. This is a renewable source of energy and large amounts of rape straw are expected to become available since it is a by-product of the production of rape oil biofuel (to be used by motor vehicles). Burning biofuel in Belchatow will require other methods of waste management, as the resulting ash is not suitable for construction purposes. The burning of rape straw is in line with EU policies to increase the proportion of electricity generated from biofuels and to promote its use in the energy market.

This article is adapted from a manuscript delivered by the Polish Ecological Club.

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AIR QUALITY

Non-binding targets for heavy metals and PAHs

In a so-called first-reading agreement¹ in April the EU Council, Commission and Parliament have agreed on setting ambient air quality targets for arsenic, cadmium, nickel and polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs).

The new law will set non-binding target values for the four pollutants, and is more ambitious than the original proposal by the Commission, but less ambitious than the report from the Parliament’s Environment Committee, which called for the introduction of binding limit values and complementary long-term objectives.

Member states will have to take "all necessary measures not entailing disproportionate costs" to meet the ambient air quality targets for the three heavy metals, plus benzo-a-pyrene, a marker for PAHs.

"The targets are a step in the right direction, but they should be binding," said Kerstin Meyer, air pollution policy officer at EEB, the European Environmental Bureau. "I doubt that the target values will guarantee cleaner air in Europe, particularly in places where air quality is really bad. Air quality standards have to be legally enforceable to be effective in protecting people from these carcinogenic pollutants."

The currently proposed target values mean that member states should take measures to keep pollution levels below them. If levels are exceeded states have to draw up detailed maps and estimate the population exposed to the pollutants. They will also have to demonstrate what they are doing in order to attain the target values, specifying those measures directed at the most important emission sources.

For industrial installations covered by the IPPC directive, member states will need to demonstrate that these installations apply the best available technology (BAT) as defined under the directive. It does not require member states to go beyond BAT however, so this new directive will not form a basis for issuing stricter permits for industrial installations in pollution hotspots.

The Commission has been told to review the law in 2010, at which time it should "consider regulating" the deposition of all four pollutants. Member states are allowed to introduce more stringent standards nationally.

The new directive should come into force before the summer, with member states required to implement it within two years. It is the fourth daughter directive under the framework directive on ambient air quality (96/62/EC). It originally also aimed to cut ambient mercury levels, but this was dropped early on pending a wider strategy due later this year.

Per Elvingson

¹ A first reading agreement means that the three EU institutions negotiate a common text, which is then agreed to by the Parliament at its first reading. The legislative process is cut short and the directive could enter into force earlier as no second reading would be necessary in the Parliament.

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LINKING DIRECTIVE

No limit for the use of flexible mechanisms

On 1 January next year a system will be introduced that will allow more than 12,000 energy-producing and/or energy-intensive plants in the enlarged EU to trade emission rights for carbon dioxide.

Companies that need more allowances than they have been allocated can either buy them from other companies operating under the system or look outside the union. The latter was made possible when the Council of Ministers, Parliament and Commission agreed in April on the linking directive that the Commission put forward last summer (COM (2003)403; see AN 3/03, p.9).

This new directive - which complements the emissions trading directive1 - will allow companies in the EU trading scheme to use credits from projects under two of the Kyoto Protocol's so-called flexible mechanisms: the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation.

Each member country has to decide the extent to which its companies may be allowed to use these mechanisms, since the directive sets no limits, although the aim is that "a significant reduction" of greenhouse gas emissions should be achieved within the EU, and not abroad.

European firms will be able to use CDM credits from January 2005 and JI credits from 2008, independent of the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. Credits are not however permitted from nuclear energy projects and "carbon sinks" (temporary storage of carbon in forests). The use of credits from carbon sinks will be reviewed by the Commission in 2006.

EU environment commissioner Margot Wallström has declared herself satisfied with the new directive. She believes that it will reduce costs for the companies participating in emissions trading and promote the transfer of environmentally sound technology to developing countries.

Several environmental organizations, including the Climate Action Network, have strongly criticized the agreement, however, since they feel that the EU is undermining both its own climate policy and its international credibility by allowing unlimited volumes of cheap credits to be brought into the system, thereby greatly reducing the incentive for domestic emission cuts among EU industry.

The environmental organizations believe that urgent action must be taken at member state level if the EU's climate policy is to retain any credibility at all. Member states should agree to a strict and harmonized cap on the use of Kyoto project credits.

Per Elvingson

1 Directive establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emissions trading within the Community (2003/87/EC). For more information, see the Commission's website. See the press release from the Climate Action Network at www.climnet.org/pubs/PR_LinkingDirective_20April2004.pdf

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EU in brief

Car makers try to shift attention
European and Japanese car makers have said they cannot achieve a better overall carbon dioxide emissions average for new cars than 130 g/km within the next few years.

Their position has emerged following a confidential statement given to the Commission in December that was seen by the Environment Daily news service in March. The statement confirms rumours that Europe's car maker umbrella organization Acea had rejected the Commission's proposed extension of the current voluntary emissions reduction target to 120g/km by 2010.

The car makers say the EU should do more to get fuel producers and drivers to make a contribution to reducing the environmental effect of road traffic. They say improved traffic management and blending traditional fuels with biofuels could make significant contributions.

There is still doubt about whether the industry will meet its current voluntary target of 140 g/km by 2008, which itself was a watered down target from the Commission's original proposal of 120 g/km by 2005.

Source: T&E Bulletin 127, April 2004.

Getting transport's prices right
Transport ministers from the EU countries were unable to reach a common position in March when they considered the Commission's draft directive on charging of heavy goods vehicles for the use of the infrastructure (COM(2003)448). The main obstacle is reported to have been the Commission's requirement that the revenues from road pricing should be used for the construction of new roads.

At its first reading in April Parliament asked for amendments to the proposal that included giving the Commission a clear deadline for a methodology to calculate all external costs (two years after the revised directive enters into force) and to allow member states to decide upon the use of revenues according to the principle of subsidiarity.

The European Federation for Transport and Environment, T&E, stressed the need for the incoming Commission to re-launch work on a framework for pricing all transport modes in Europe. The present Commission had promised such a framework, but abandoned it in 2003.

Further information: www.t-e.nu

VOCs in paints
New limits on organic solvents in paints and varnishes sold within the EU will take effect in two stages, in 2007 and 2010. This is the result of the second reading of the proposed directive on 30 March, at which the European Parliament approved the Council of Ministers' common position, the content of which is very close to that originally proposed by the Commission.

The European paint producer lobby organization Cepe deemed the requirements "challenging but workable." The European Environmental Bureau, EEB, feels however that the directive is not sufficiently ambitious.

In addition to imposing binding limit values, paints and varnishes will have to carry a mandatory label specifying VOC limit values and maximum VOC quantity. Implementation of the law is estimated to reduce the emissions of VOCs in the EU15 by around 280,000 tonnes per year by 2010.

Realistic testing
The EU's institutions reached a first-reading agreement in March on technical legislation complementing the Euro IV emission standards for heavy-duty engines to prevent lorry makers from designing engines that pass standard emissions tests but then exceed the standards on the road.

Source: T&E Bulletin 127, April 2004.

Green law breaches prompt warning
France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Italy, Portugal and Sweden have been sent "second warning" reasoned opinions from the Commission, urging them to transpose the law under which all road fuels should have a maximum sulphur content of ten parts per million by January 2009. The directive was adopted a year ago and the transposition deadline elapsed last June.

Source: Environment Daily, 5 April 2004.

Slow phase-out of f-gases favoured

On March 31 the European Parliament voted for a strategy based on containment rather than replacement to reduce emissions of fluorinated industrial gases, also known as f-gases.

The parliamentary vote was the first reading of the Commission's proposed new directive (COM(2003)492). The Parliament voted to place no limits on the use of f-gases in stationary commercial, domestic or industrial air conditioning or refrigeration, and rejected an environmental legal base for the law.

On the draft law's key proposal to phase out HFCs in vehicle air conditioning systems, Parliament ditched a complex quota system proposed by the Commission in favour of a phased ban, but pushed back by two years to 2011 the point at which the ban will begin to affect newly approved models. The ban would apply to all new cars from 2014.

The draft directive will be considered by the environmental ministers on 28-29 June.

Power sector generates more CO2

Total emissions by the 21 largest power generators in the EU15 grew by 0.8 per cent to 693 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2002. These 21 companies accounted for approximately 75 per cent of total emissions of the power and heat sector in Europe. The European carbon factor - the amount of carbon oxide released in relation to the quantity of electricity generated - remained at roughly the same level as the year before, 360 kg CO2/MWh. The information is taken from a report produced by PricewaterhouseCoopers.1

The report also compares the European power sector with that in Japan. The aggregate Japanese generation capacity and emissions in 2002 were equivalent to one third of those in Europe. The carbon factor was 379 kg CO2/MWh, i.e. slightly higher than in Europe. Last year's report included a comparison with the US, which had a carbon factor of 720, in other words twice as high as that of Europe (AN 1/03, p.15). This difference was explained by the lower proportion of coal-fired plants and the higher efficiency of the European power sector.

1 Climate Change and the Power Industry. European Carbon Factors 2: a Benchmarking of CO2 Emissions by the largest European Power Producers. November 2003. Available at www.pwc.com

Renewable targets receding

Two EU targets for renewable energy are unlikely to be met, according to a draft report from the European Commission seen by the newsletter Environment Daily. The proportion of electricity obtained from renewable sources in 2010 is expected to reach 18-19 per cent, compared with the target of 22 per cent. In the case of energy use as a whole the target is for 12 per cent from renewable sources by 2010, but the actual proportion looks set to be around 10 per cent.

The directive on renewable energy sources (2001/77/EC) also gives indicative national targets. The Commission's analysis suggests that just three out of fifteen countries are certain to meet them: Germany, Denmark and Spain. Greece and Portugal will certainly not meet them, and the outlook is uncertain for the remaining countries.

Source: Environment Daily 26 April, 2004.

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CLIMATE CHANGE

Unexpected effects quite possible

The rise in global temperature this century may suffice to cause the northern branch of the Gulf Stream to slow down or even to collapse. It would then become much colder in western Europe.

Northwestern Europe is kept warm by what is known as the North Atlantic Current, an extension of the Gulf Stream that brings warm water from the tropics to the north. Without that heat pump the average temperature in Scandinavia, for instance, would be 5-10°C lower than it is today. In Germany it would be 3-4°C lower. The east coast of North America is also warmed by the same current.

This current is sensitive to global warming and could slow down, or even break down as a result of increasing global temperatures. Studies of Earth's ancient climate show that the North Atlantic Current has changed repeatedly and dramatically in the past, resulting in massive and sudden regional climate changes.

"Rapid changes of up to 10°C in a decade have happened more than 20 times in the past 100,000 years," says Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. The last time that happened was after the last ice age, about 8,000 years ago.

"Many scientists are concerned that similar rapid shifts in ocean currents could be triggered again by global warming. We are not yet sure how warm it has to get before this happens, but once the threshold is crossed the consequences for northwestern Europe are likely to be severe," says Rahmstorf. "The threshold may well lie within the range of warming expected under business-as-usual within this century."

Rahmstorf emphasizes however that it is still not too late to sway this development.

"If we start reducing emissions now to limit global warming, we can most likely prevent this from happening. The risk for unpleasant surprises increases the longer we wait."

Climate modelling shows, too, that the Gulf Stream will not only be affected by the extent of global warming, but also by the speed at which it occurs. The quicker the warming, the greater will be the risk of sudden collapse. A slower rate of warming would allow gradual changes, leading to a new state of equilibrium.

Professor Rahmstorf's conclusions can be read in a new book1, in which research from the last few decades concerning the functioning of our planet and the way it is being changed by human and natural forces is presented.

An outstanding conclusion of the book - based on the findings of 5,000 researchers in the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme - is the recognition that the relationship between climate, ecosystems and the effects of human intervention is highly complex and that change will not be linear. There are several thresholds to be crossed, but it is uncertain where they will be. When they are crossed, however, the effects could be enormous and occur quickly.

Per Elvingson

1 Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. Steffen et al. Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany, 2004. 336 pp. There is a 34-page executive summary in pdf format on www.igbp.kva.se.

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CORAL REEFS

"The first major casualties of climate change"

There is an evident risk of the coral populations on the Great Barrier Reef collapsing in the next hundred years as a result of the rising water temperature, according to a study1 commissioned by WWF Australia and the Queensland Tourism Industry Council.

The Great Barrier Reef is a World Heritage Area and the world's largest living reef formation, stretching 2,000 km north to south along Australia's northeast coast.

"Coral reefs are one of the first major casualties of climate change," said Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor at the University of Queensland and co-author of the report, in an interview with Reuters. "The only hope we have of saving these beautiful ecosystems lies in massively reducing heat-trapping gas emissions and stabilizing the Earth's climate within two degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels."

The worst occurrence of bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef so far occurred in 2002, when 60 to 95 per cent of the reefs within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park were affected. While most reefs that were surveyed survived with relatively low levels of coral death, some locations suffered severe damage with up to 90 per cent of corals killed.

During the next 100 years climate researchers foresee a rise in temperature of 2-6°C.

"There is little to no evidence that corals can adapt fast enough to match even the lower projected temperature rise. Most evidence points to rates of adaptation that involve centuries and millennia," according to the study.

Under the best-case scenario in the report the loss will be recoverable only if global temperature increases remain below two degrees, which will call for greatly reduced emissions of greenhouse gases during this century.

Under the worst-case scenario the coral cover may decline to less than five per cent on most reefs by the middle of the century and a collapse can be expected by 2100. Reefs will not disappear but they will be devoid of coral and dominated by other less appealing species such as macroalgae and cyanobacteria. A re-establishment of coral reefs will be "highly unlikely over the following 200-500 years."

The Great Barrier Reef is not only important for global biodiversity, it also supports huge fishing and tourism industries in the region. The report estimates that destruction of the reef's coral could end up costing the Australian economy A$8 billion (3.5 billion euros) and more than 12,000 jobs by 2020.

Per Elvingson

1 The Implications of Climate Change for Australia's Great Barrier Reef. March 2004. Can be downloaded from WWF Australia at www.wwf.org.au

Up-to-date reports on coral bleaching etc. can be found at the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority's website, www.gbrmpa.gov.au.

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BIODIVERSITY

Rising levels of CO2 are fertilizing the forests

It has long been known that human activities such as logging, burning and clearing are a severe threat to the rainforests. Research recently conducted in the Amazonas indicates however that rapid changes are occurring even in supposedly pristine regions.1

The researchers stumbled across the trend when studying the effects of rainforest clearance. They surveyed tree growth over the past two decades in 69 remote one-hectare plots, intended as pristine "controls" to highlight changes in other areas, where humans are active.

"But suddenly the controls weren't acting like controls," says William Laurance of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Balboa, Panama, who led the study. During the course of the study, most species of trees began growing faster. The forests also became more dynamic, with existing trees dying faster and being replaced by young new trees.

All the tree groups that increased in abundance were fast growers that make up the forest canopy, whereas half of those that declined were sub-canopy trees.

"It's clear that this is not random variation," says Laurance, "rainforest dynamics are changing."

The most likely reason for these changes, say the researchers, is that rising carbon dioxide levels are fertilizing the forests, leading to faster growth and more competition among trees for light, water, and soil nutrients. Under these conditions, big, fast-growing species of trees probably have an advantage over small, slower-growing trees.

"Sadly, this could be a signal that the forest's ecology is changing in fundamental ways," says Laurance. "Tropical rainforests are renowned for having lots of highly specialized species. If you change the tree communities then other species - especially the animals that feed on and pollinate the trees - will undoubtedly change as well."

Source: Nature Press Release, March 10, 2004. The study: Laurance, W.F. et al. Nature, 428, 171-175 (2004).

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BIODIVERSITY

Pristine forests are changing

The rates of growth and death of trees in pristine forests across the Amazon Basin have accelerated substantially in recent decades, which appears to have led to an increase in biomass in these pristine forests. This has been shown by research that is presented in a themed issue of the British journal Philosophical Transactions B.1

The most likely explanation for the accelerated growth, according to the contributing researchers, is increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and surface air temperatures, and possible continent-wide changes in sunshine.

The researchers can show that tropical forests globally have warmed by half a degree in the last 20 years, and this is expected to increase by a further three to eight degrees by the end of the century, a development that could have very serious negative consequences for ecosystems, human welfare and the entire climate system.

"Whilst this increase in biomass may well have helped to slow the rate of global climate change so far, computer model simulations suggest that this 'carbon sink' cannot be taken for granted. The process could be reversed in as short a space of time as the next two decades by the combined effects of deforestation and global warming," says Dr Oliver Phillips of the University of Leeds, one of the scientists and co-editor of the publication.

The researchers also cite examples of rainforests that already appear to be breaking up under a combination of climatic and human pressure.

Dr Yadvinder Malhi, co-editor, concludes: "This research shows that conservation of the remaining rainforests will need to take into account the new pressures that global atmospheric change are placing on these forests. In the 21st century we are moving into a human-made atmospheric and climatic situation that has not been experienced on earth for at least 20 million years. We are deeply concerned with how the earth's most biodiverse ecosystems will respond to these changes."

1 Tropical Forests and Global Atmospheric Change. Themed issue of Philosophical Transactions B, Vol. 359, No 1443, March 2004. Published by the Royal Society, 6 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AG. Website: www.royalsoc.ac.uk

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Arctic environment faces drastic change

The Arctic region faces a diverse range of threats from unsustainable development, pollution and climate change, according to a report1 compiled by experts at the UNEP GRID Arendal centre in Norway. The responsibility for this impact is shared by the industrialized countries, while the indigenous population, the Inuit, are hit by the negative effects. The report asserts that the European Union bears much of the responsibility for these threats and must take action quickly.

"With the high levels of toxic chemicals in local Inuit peoples, the melting of permafrost and the retreat of glaciers across the region, the Arctic is like an environmental early warning system for the world," commented UNEP Executive Director Klaus Töpfer when the report was presented in March.

1 Arctic environment: European perspectives. Published jointly by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the European Environment Agency (EEA).

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CLIMATE CHANGE

"Time to take the next step now"

It is widely agreed that the Kyoto Protocol is just the first step in international climate negotiations. In order to meet the ultimate objective of the climate convention - to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system - the protocol must be quickly followed up with broader and more far-reaching agreements.

Negotiations on future measures have not however started yet. The Climate Action Network (CAN) has therefore presented, in the form of a discussion paper,1 what it has called a viable global framework for climate action, with the objective of keeping global warming as far below 2°C as possible in order to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.

CAN's global framework for achieving this objective reflects the moral responsibility of those who have benefited the most from the use of the global commons to reduce their emissions first, and to compensate the victims of unavoidable human-induced climate change. The framework is built on core principles of equity and fairness and includes an appropriate balance of rights and obligations.

CAN's discussion paper states that the climate regime needs three parallel, interlinked tracks operating on the same or a very similar timetable:

The Kyoto track builds upon the climate convention and the Kyoto Protocol, with its system of legally binding absolute emission reductions and compliance regime. This track, with its tradable emission obligations, provides the core of a system that will drive rapid technological development and diffusion, and provide the technological basis for win-win solutions to climate and sustainable development objectives.

The "Greening" (decarbonization) track would drive the rapid introduction of clean technologies that can reduce emissions and meet sustainable development objectives in developing countries. Industrialized countries would provide resources and technology to drive much of this track.

The Adaptation track provides the resources to the most vulnerable regions (small island states, least developed countries) to deal with unavoidable climate changes. Countries receiving support under this track could also operate in the Greening track.

Industrialized countries have the obligation to act first to reduce their absolute emissions. The emission reduction targets in the Kyoto track would be set with a strong reference to the need for per capita emissions to converge over the course of the 21st century. Other fairness criteria such as ability or capacity to act (including measures such as per capita income) and historical responsibility would also play a role in setting the overall timing, level and character of the emission action required of different countries, as well as in determining when and how countries move from the Greening track to the Kyoto track.

It is said in the Kyoto Protocol that negotiations concerning the next period of commitments (after 2012) must start at the latest by 2005 (provided that the protocol comes into force). It is important that the countries involved immediately begin planning for greater reductions in the second commitment period and that industrialized and developing countries begin concrete discussions together on how to implement the Greening track.

Accelerated work on the Adaptation track should be initiated in order to identify the concrete needs of countries and regions that will be adversely affected by further unavoidable warming even under the 2°C global temperature limit.

Bill Hare
Greenpeace International

1 A Viable Global Framework for Preventing Dangerous Climate Change - CAN Discussion Paper. December 2003. Available at www.climatenetwork.org/docs/CAN-DP_Framework.pdf

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EU15 YEAR 2020

A third of electricity demand could be supplied from offshore windpower

According to a study conducted by the energy consultants Garrad Hassan1 on behalf of Greenpeace, a third of the EU15 electricity demand could be supplied from offshore wind power by 2020. Development on the necessary scale would moreover, according to the consultants' estimate, create a market worth hundreds of millions of euros and up to three million new jobs.

At the end of 2003 the installed wind power capacity in the EU15 amounted to 28,542 megawatts (MW) and in the ten accession countries just 102 MW.

But the potential for wind power in Europe is very great, especially at offshore sites, where few installations are as yet in place. To arrive at the level of 720 TWh per annum in 2020, as suggested in the Garrad Hassan report, would require a total capacity of around 240,000 MW, calling for some 50,000 new large turbines. The area they would take up would not need to be very great, amounting to no more than 3 per cent of the EU15 countries' seabed.

The consultants assert that offshore wind power is already economically competitive, costing about the same as coal and nuclear power. If the hidden costs are also taken into account, wind power comes out a clear winner, they point out - since it does not, in contrast to nuclear and fossil fuel based power, give rise to any important negative side effects. Investments in renewable energy in fact bring appreciable positive side effects - such as reduced dependence on imported energy and reduced emissions of greenhouse gases.

If they are to get development going, politicians will have to set a clear target for renewable energy. The EU members should aim at making 20 per cent from renewables by 2020 the goal at the International Conference for Renewable Energies in Bonn this June (see AN 1/04 p.9). This is quite possible, according to the Greenpeace view.

Greenpeace also emphasize the importance of switching over to renewable energy sources the large sums that taxpayers now hand over in subsidies to the nuclear and coal industries. In Germany, where the highest subsidies are now paid, 2.5 billion euros go every year to subsidizing coal production - which is about 70,000 euros per coal worker. Improving the opportunities for those businesses that want to invest and to some extent improve the power grid are further phpects that the EU needs to concentrate on in order to ensure a large-scale development of offshore wind power.

Per Elvingson

1 Sea Wind Europe. February 2004. Published by Greenpeace and available in pdf format at www.greenpeace.org

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Cheaper energy has reduced incentives to save

The energy share of total production costs in some industries fell by 50 per cent from the early 1980s until the late 1990s.

The Iinternational Energy Agency has been analyzing developments in the energy sector since the organization was founded thirty years ago.1 One of the major findings is that IEA countries2 have significantly reduced the need for energy to fuel economic growth. Compared to 1973, it now takes one-third less energy to produce a unit of GDP in IEA economies.

In the case of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of GDP, the greatest improvement took place in the period 1973-1990. However, since 1990 only a few countries have managed to sustain the downward trend. While total emissions of carbon dioxide from IEA countries in 1990 were only marginally higher than in 1973, they increased 13 per cent between 1990 and 2001.

Oil continues to dominate the IEA fuel mix and consumption today is roughly at the same level as in 1973. Considerable reductions have been made in manufacturing industry - thanks to improved energy efficiency and shifts to a less energy-intensive structure - but at the same time consumption has increased by 50 and 80 per cent respectively for passenger and goods transport.

Energy prices are an important factor behind these long-term trends, according to the IEA analysis. The sharp price increases associated with the oil crises of the early 1970s necessitated major improvements in efficiency. But from the 1980s onwards energy became cheaper again. This, combined with more efficient use, resulted in relatively low energy costs and hence reduced the incentive to save energy. The energy share of total production costs in some industries fell by as much as 50 per cent from the early 1980s until the late 1990s. Energy costs for domestic use fell by 20-50 per cent over the same period, while the fuel cost per kilometre driven by private cars fell by between 20 per cent and 60 per cent, depending on the country.

"We are concerned that despite the major improvements in energy efficiency, recent trends indicate that stronger efforts are needed to avoid an increasing dependency on oil and to reduce the environmental impacts from growing energy demand. It is still possible to obtain at low cost, a dramatic increase in energy efficiency in our economies," comments Claude Mandil, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency.

1 Oil Crises and Climate Challenges: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries. International Energy Agency, 2004. 124 pp. 100 euros. Can be ordered from www.iea.org (A seven-page executive summary is available free of charge.)

2 Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, United States.

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Hydrogen economy a long way off

Reducing emissions of air pollutants and dependency on foreign oil have been cited as major motives for the $1.2 billion hydrogen plan that the Bush administration presented last year and which is intended to make it practical and cost effective for US consumers to use clean, hydrogen powered fuel cell vehicles by 2020.

Such a scenario is scarcely likely according to a report from the US National Academies of Science that was produced on behalf of the Energy Department. Even under the best case scenario the hydrogen transition will do little to cut oil imports or emissions of greenhouse gases during the next 25 years.

According to the committee there are a wide array of technical, economic and infrastructure challenges:

• there is little existing capacity for hydrogen production, which remains expensive;
• fuel cell technologies face challenges of storage, cost, reliability, and safety, and, perhaps most important of all:
• the high cost and logistical complexity of hydrogen distribution to fuelling stations.

The committee recommends continued R&D on hydrogen and fuel cells, but also measures "to explore supply and demand alternatives that do not depend upon hydrogen."

Antonia Herzog of the Natural Resources Defense Council environmental organization feels that more attention can be directed at what can be achieved with existing technology, and that improved fuel economy standards are one of the most important means for reducing emissions.

"We simply can't bank on hydrogen alone to cut our dependence on Middle East oil or fix the global warming problem," said Herzog, pointing out that Americans will buy 450 million new cars and trucks before the hydrogen car is available.

The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. National Academies of Science, 2004. Available at www.trb.org/news/blurb_detail.php?id=2370

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OPINION

Air pollution trading - marketing failure

Given the rapid advance of emissions trading onto the world stage and its enthusiastic embrace by governments and businesses alike, it would seem reasonable to expect the literature to be filled with thorough analyses of this policy, documenting its successes irrefutably and in detail, especially contrasting it to the failures of the regulatory programmes that the supporters of trading want repealed. But that is not the case.

In this examination, which is the result of a study conducted over a six-month period starting in mid-2002, three trading schemes in the U.S. were studied in detail:

• The leaded gasoline trading programme, which began operation in 1974;
• The acid rain trading programme, which was created by the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments;
• The RECLAIM programme, which commenced in southern California in 1993.

Comparing and contrasting these programmes revealed grave flaws common to all of them. Finding the same failings in all trading programmes suggests that the deficiencies are intrinsic to trading itself, not the result of faulty programme design or implementation.

These failings include the following.

Abandoning protection of health

The Clean Air Act of 1970 was designed to save lives and avoid illness. It requires that a concentration of air pollution that is generally safe be identified, then that sources of that pollutant reduce emissions enough to reach that level. The key to this is source-by-source permitting, so both regulators and the public know exactly how much pollution flows from the smokestack.

Trading is the antithesis of source-by-source permitting. Instead of reducing pollution as fast as technologically achievable, trading allows it - and the illness and death that it causes - to continue for the express purpose of saving money for polluters. Yet the premise of replacing source-by-source review with trading is that the health benefits of every unit of pollution are identical, independent of the location of the emission source. This is simply, and obviously, untrue.

Removing the stigma of pollution

Air pollution kills and injures. The stigma associated with such harmful action often acts as a powerful deterrent. Trading, by treating pollution as a commodity - and, indeed, using euphemisms such as "allowance" rather than pollution - affirmatively sanctions pollution, thus removing the stigma.

Killing environmental innovation

Because trading focuses solely on reducing a single pollutant by an exact date and a precise amount at least cost, techniques and practices that deliver multiple benefits - e.g. new ways of energy conversion, as well as conservation, and renewable forms of energy - are frozen out of the market.

In the acid rain programme, the innovation stimulated was in new railroad tracks, on-loading and off-loading systems, and other ways of increasing the use of lower sulphur coal. While trading stimulates cost innovation, it has the opposite effect on environmental innovation, suffocating emerging technologies, such as integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).

This rigidity is perhaps the greatest single practical flaw in trading. Under a technology-forcing regime, the multiple benefits of specific technologies or practices can be seized. Eliminating permits in favour of trading leaves no mechanism for bringing new technologies on line.

Hindering mid-course adjustments

Trading provides polluters with a degree of flexibility in choosing the means by which to reduce a pollutant and, to some degree, the timing. It is otherwise rigid, however, so as a practical matter it becomes impossible to adjust goals based on new information - new technology for example, or the discovery of more substantial injuries.

Because the emission reductions mandated by the 1990 acid rain programme are manifestly inadequate, proposals to increase them have been put forward. They have not been adopted, and there is no likelihood of that in the foreseeable future. To finally eliminate leaded gasoline required enactment of a congressional ban. Tardy achievement of the RECLAIM reductions occurred only after a massive outcry.

Delay and undercontrol

Delay is implicit in trading because it requires time for markets to develop. Undercontrol is also implicit, because if all polluters are doing their utmost to reduce air pollution, there is nothing available to trade. To create a commodity that can be traded, regulators must allow polluters to do less than their best.

For example, from the time an acid rain programme was first proposed in the U.S. in 1980, to the date at which it will take full effect in 2010, roughly 30 years will have passed. Emissions in the U.S. will then have been cut by about 35 per cent. In contrast, Germany cut power plant emissions by 90 per cent in six years, from the first proposal in 1982 to completion in 1988. In the case of leaded gasoline, the U.S. required 23 years to eliminate the fuel, while China took only three years.

Fraud and secrecy

While emissions allocations are public, trades and prices are not. In the trading programmes examined, the prices actually paid are secret, so there is no way to test the proposition that trading reduces control costs. In addition, in the leaded gasoline programme the ownership of the credits was also secret. While ownership of acid rain allowances is public, actual emissions information becomes available only after the fact, too late to avoid health damage. Extracting information from the government database is a complex, tedious, and time-consuming task well beyond the capabilities of ordinary citizens.

The shroud of confidentiality surrounding emissions and the trades opens the door to fraud. This certainly occurred in the leaded gasoline programme, and has been alleged in RECLAIM.

Converting a public good to private property
The effect of trading is to convert a common good - clean air - into a sump for waste by creating and then conferring on the polluters the right to use it to dispose of their pollution. Thus, what once belonged to all - air quality - is converted to private property. The explanatory language accompanying one programme, acid rain, characterizes this property as "right", while in others it is an undefined privilege conferred on polluters.

Health and environmental objectives are not achieved

In every case examined, trading failed to produce the reductions required to protect the resource in question, requiring - for two of the programmes - recourse to the very command-and-control mechanisms crafters had sought to avoid.

Conclusions

The experience of the U.S. - and, indeed, the world - with emissions trading is limited principally to three programmes. None of these has before been subjected to close, critical analysis to determine whether they in fact are the unbridled success that their proponents claim.

There can be little doubt that trading certainly failed in two of the three cases examined, RECLAIM and leaded gasoline, and seem destined to do the same in the third, acid rain.

This analysis does not pretend to be the exhaustive analysis that ought to be devoted to trading before it is extended beyond its current scope. It is, nevertheless, the most ambitious effort undertaken to date, which is a reflection of the abdication of responsibility by government officials in the U.S. and elsewhere, who are proposing to extend trading into new arenas without careful review of U.S. experience.

It merits noting that much of the pressure to extend trading into new arenas is generated by those anxious for the appearance of progress in addressing global warming and power plant emissions. Public groups have increasingly embraced such proposals in the mistaken belief that any action is better than none at all. Two generations of American children with diminished intelligence, hundreds of thousands of children subjected to years of illness, and hundreds of lakes that remain acidified, belie such a belief. In the cases of leaded gasoline, smog and acid rain, there was room for error, and time for corrective action. There will be neither in the case of global warming.

Perhaps the conclusions of this analysis are too pessimistic. Then again, perhaps not. Government, universities, and some public interest groups have the resources to amplify on and confirm - or refute - this examination. They also have an obligation to do so.

Curtis A. Moore

The author is coeditor of the Health & Clean Air Newsletter (http://healthandcleanair.org). A more detailed presentation of the study can be found in Environmental Law Reporter News & Analysis, No. 3, 2004.

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In brief

Leading the way at sea
As part of its environmental work the shipping company Wallenius Wilhelmsen has signed supply contracts with Shell Marine Products and ExxonMobil for a total of 300,000 tonnes of bunker oil with a sulphur content of 1 per cent, and with BP for a further 180,000 tonnes of oil containing 1.5 per cent sulphur. The shipping company, which has a total annual consumption of around 800,000 tonnes of bunker oil, has set itself the target that all its vessels, including those on long-term charters, should run on oil with a maximum sulphur content of 1.5 per cent by the end of 2004. It expects to meet its remaining demand for low-sulphur oil through purchases on the spot market, primarily in Europe.

Source: www.2wglobal.com, 10 February 2004.

Lorry charging scheme resurrected
The distance-based charging scheme for heavy lorries that was to be introduced on German motorways last autumn (AN 1/03, pp.18-19) had to be postponed several times due to technical problems. In February this year the German government cancelled its contract with Toll Collect, the consortium that was in charge of the project. A new agreement reached in March means that the consortium will now launch a simpler version of the satellite-based tolling system in 2005, before introducing more sophisticated elements in 2006. If the technology fails, Toll Collect will be liable to pay up to 780 million euros in 2005 and 1 billion euros each year thereafter.

Source: Environment Daily. 4 March 2004.

German subsidy for particle filters
At the start of April the German minister of the environment Jürgen Trittin put forward a bill that would give tax concessions for diesel vehicles if they are equipped with particle filters - including aftermarket installations. The total discount, in the form of reduced vehicle excise duty, would amount to a maximum of 600 euros, although the precise figure depends on the environmental class of the vehicle.

Diesel vehicles now account for 44 per cent of new vehicles sales in Germany, compared with 13 per cent in 1990.

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Recent publications

Yearbook of International Co-operation on Environment and Development 2003/2004
By the Fridtjof Nansen Institute. Reports on international conventions and organizations concerned with the environment and development.
11th volume. 352 pp. £70.00. Available from Earthscan, 8-12 Camden High Street, London NW1 0JH, UK. Internet: www.earthscan.co.uk. Extracts from the publication are also available at: www.greenyearbook.org

Air Quality Management in the United States (2004)
By the National Research Council's Committee on Air Quality Management. An assessment of current legislation, including claims that the Clean Air Act does not do enough to protect communities that suffer most from air pollution, nor does it adequately consider the effect on ecosystems and the role of air pollutants in climate change. The report also recommends, among other things, that a more integrated approach should be taken to air pollutants and that ecosystems should be given better protection.
330 pp. $45. Can be ordered or read at www.nap.edu/books/0309089328/html/

The Eastern Promise (2004)
Progress report on the EU renewable electricity directive in the accession countries. Published by WWF European Policy Office, Avenue de Tervuren, 36, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. Available in pdf format at www.panda.org (News & Facts > Publications > Climate Change).

2nd Report on Road Transport Best Industry Practices
Report compiled by the Fraunhofer Institute, highlighting many measures that achieved cuts in fuel consumption and exhaust emissions, for example "eco-driving" training schemes, upgrading to cleaner engines, and "eco-efficient distribution."
60 pp. Published by the International Road Transport Union. Available in pdf format, free of charge, at www.iru.org/Publications/Welcome.E.html

Expert Paper on the Global Impacts of Road Transport Biofuels (2004)
Compiled by a group of independent UK experts, on the lifecycle emissions associated with different transport biofuel options. 25 pp. Available in pdf format at www.nsca.org.uk/topics_and_issues/biofuels.cfm

Potential Environmental and Rural Impacts of Biofuel Production in the UK (2004)
Addresses the local impacts of biofuels, such as land use, biodiversity, regional development, agricultural practices, etc. 26 pp. Available in pdf format at www.nsca.org.uk/topics_and_issues/biofuels.cfm

Assessment & Decision Making for Sustainable Transport (2004)
Makes recommendations for good practice in the transport sector on the basis of reviews of recent experience in infrastructure planning and policy development in France, Italy, Netherlands, UK, Finland, Germany and Spain.
234 pp. 55 euros. Published by the European Conference of Ministers of Transport. Can be ordered from OECD online bookshop (www.oecd.org), where a pdf version is also available free of charge.

EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook
Third edition. Designed to provide a comprehensive guide to state-of-the-art atmospheric emissions inventory methodology to support reporting under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and the National Emission Ceiling Directive of the EU. Technical report No 30, October 2003. Available at http://reports.eea.eu.int/EMEPCORINAIR4/

Air Pollution, Global Change and Forests in the New Millennium (2003)
D.F. Karnosky et al. A long list of researchers describe how trees and forests react to climate variability, rising levels of carbon dioxide, tropospheric ozone, acid deposition, etc.
470 pp. 140 euros. ISBN 0-08-044317-6. Available from Elsevier, Customer Service Dept., Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP, UK, www.elsevier.com.

Predicting recovery of acidified freshwaters in Europe and Canada
Special issue of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 7, No. 4, August 2003. Published by European Geophysical Union. ISSN 1027-5606.

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Published 19 May 2004.