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No. 1, March 2004
Cover illustration © Lars-Erik Håkansson (Lehån) Main articles in brief Editorial: It should pay, after all Twice as large Low sulphur fuels at sea EU shipping strategy Economic instruments Kyoto protocol Increasing emissions Ancillary benefits Millions of species at risk It should pay, after all After having evaluated 107 federal regulations that had come into force during the ten-year period from l992 to 2002, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has concluded that it actually pays, both economically and socially, to pass laws to protect the environment. Its latest report, which provides the most comprehensive federal study ever of the costs and benefits of regulatory decision-making, found that the total benefits of these rules were three to five times greater than total costs. In particular, it noted that the majority of the quantified benefits are attributable to a handful of clean-air rules issued by the Environment Protection Agency (EPA). The benefits of these four rules are estimated to have amounted to $101-119 billion per year and the costs to $8-8.8 billion. The health and social benefits of enforcing clean-air regulations during the past decade are concluded to have been five to seven times greater, in economic terms, than the costs of compliance. This new OMB study thus reaffirms the conclusions of previous analyses made by the EPA to evaluate the costs and benefits of measures taken under the Clean Air Act. Commenting on the OMB report, William K. Reilly, former administrator of the EPA, said: "Regulated businesses need to recognize that the nation's environmental progress has achieved greater benefits than we anticipated and earned a solid return on our investments." Because cost-benefit analyses will be assuming ever greater importance both for decision-makers and public opinion, it will be of increasing importance to evaluate how well they are functioning. The American studies in fact confirm what environmentalists have long asserted - namely, that there has been a clear tendency to overestimate the costs and underestimate the gains. The fact that the expected costs have been almost systematically overestimated in connection with environmental legislation is no news. As William K. Reilly observes: "The explanation for the large variation between anticipated and realized costs of regulation lies in the difficulty in foreseeing what new technologies, inventions or replacement strategies challenged companies will develop to comply with new requirements." One reason for underestimating the benefits has been that many of them cannot be evaluated satisfactorily in economic terms. It is a matter for instance of the quality of life, human suffering, the preservation of biological diversity, and the risks of future damage to the climate and ecosystems. And beneficial factors that cannot be expressed in monetary terms just don't enter into economic calculations. The inevitable conclusion of the American studies must be that environmental legislation in general, and clean-air laws in particular, can be very remunerative to society. They are moreover much more profitable than usually appears from the cost-benefit analyses that are made when proposing legislation. All this carries a clear message for decision-makers both in America and elsewhere. And it should act as a spur to future tightening up of legislation affecting the atmosphere. Christer Ågren A brief digest of the White House Office of Management and Budget report can be found here. Twice as large The global emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides from shipping may be twice as large as previously estimated, according to a recent study.1 Those of sulphur dioxide may be 50 per cent larger. The writers who have tried to determine the size of the emissions from the present world fleet from data on engine types and the way the engines are used are James Corbett, University of Delaware, the US, and Horst W. Köhler, employed at MAN B&W Diesel AG in Germany. They have come to the conclusion that internationally registered ships - cargo and commercial vessels as well as military ones - together consume about 289 million tons of fuel per year, of which 80 per cent is heavy fuel oil. That is about twice as much as in previous estimates, which have been based on the volumes of marine fuels that were sold internationally. Since the amount of fuel consumed turned out to be so much greater, the emissions of air pollutants had to be recalculated too. See table. It turned out that the emissions both of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides would increase in proportion to the amount of fuel consumed - in other words, they would also double, as would those of hydrocarbons and particles (PM10), although the basic assumptions are in this case uncertain. Following an adjustment downwards of the average sulphur content of the fuel to 2.5 per cent (2.7 per cent in residual fuel, 1.0 per cent in marine distillate oil and 0.25 per cent in marine gas oil), emissions of sulphur dioxide were estimated to increase by only 50 per cent. A possible explanation for fuel consumption turning out to be twice as large as had been thought may be found, according to Corbett and Köhler, in the fact that the fuel used by internationally registered shipping is booked in two sets of statistics, domestic and international. "This implies either that ships operate along domestic routes much of the time or that marine fuel sales to these ships may be misassigned," they say. If international shipping moves closer to the coasts than had been thought, that may affect the calculations of the extent to which the fallout of pollutants over near-shore waters can be ascribed to shipping. "Given that nearshore emissions from ships may be much larger than depicted in global inventories, regional and local policy jurisdictions may have additional reasons to consider stronger action than the global standard set by the International Maritime Organization," say the authors. They also produce an analysis showing that most of the uncertainty regarding the amount of fuel consumed derives from estimates of vessel duty cycle and hours of operation. The same factors are also of great-est importance for calculations of the amount of pollutants emitted, although here the choice of emission factors are also important. The study applies to all ocean-going vessels of more than 100 gross tons, almost 90,000 altogether, as well as close on 20,000 military vessels. The total installed engine power comes to some 450,000 MW. Per Elvingson Updated emissions, compared with previous best estimates (Tg=million tons).
1 Corbett et al. 1999. The cost of low sulphur oil The price of low-sulphur marine fuel will increase as demand rises. Lowering the sulphur content to 0.5 per cent would nevertheless be socially-economically advantageous. The average sulphur content of marine heavy fuel produced in Europe is currently around 2.9 per cent. In view of the fact that the European parliament is proposing that the content should be limited to 0.5 per cent (see AN 3/03), a report1 on the extra cost of such low-sulphur fuel has been prepared at the instance of the Commission. The total annual sales of marine heavy fuel in the fifteen EU member countries reached 35.9 million tons in 2001, an increase of nearly 3 per cent over the previous year. In 2001, too, 8.8 million tons of marine distillates were sold (marine gas oil and marine diesel), just about 1 per cent more than in 2000. According to the authors of the report, no statistics are available on the production of heavy fuel oil (HFO) containing less than 0.5 per cent sulphur. They have however tried to make a rough estimate of the refineries ability to turn out that kind of fuel. But it should be noted that their estimate concerns existing refinery capacity, without considering the possibility of additional desulphurizing facilities having been installed. The global production potential for low-sulphur HFO is estimated to be around 230 million tons, most of which is however assumed to be used in furnaces on land. The potential for global use of low-sulphur HFO as marine fuel is put at 50 million tons, of which 11 million tons in northern Europe. (It may be mentioned by way of comparison that the total world market for marine HFO is around 110 million tons.) It says in the report that the supply of low-sulphur HFO for the marine market is at present constrained because the refiners have no incentive to sell this fuel on the bunker fuel market or any indication of a possibility. There are three ways in which low-sulphur HFO can be produced. The first and lowest-cost option is re-blending (13-16 euros per ton), which is however not expected to be able to deliver any significant quantities of fuel with less than 0.5 per cent sulphur. The next in order of cost is the processing of lower-sulphur crude oils - replacing high-sulphur crudes with lower-sulphur ones (say, by African crude such as Bonney Light which contains 0.14 per cent sulphur). The incremental cost of this alternative would be 40-45 euros per ton of fuel. The third and most expensive option is to desulphurize vacuum residue (VRDS). This process is not commonly used today solely for the desulphurization of residues, but it could be coupled with the conversion of residue to lighter products. If only applied for desulphurization, the cost is estimated to be 80-95 euros per ton of fuel. As can be seen from the table, the extra cost of producing marine HFO with 0.5 per cent sulphur is calculated to lie between 43 and 93 euros a ton. To produce it with 1.5 per cent sulphur would, it is thought, cost 22-83 euros per ton. In 2000 the price of marine HFO was 109 euros a ton. The table also shows that the more HFO is processed, the higher will be the price, since producing larger quantities will need investments in residue desulphurization. The consultants say their cost estimates "try to demonstrate what is the maximum likely premium," but add "there is a considerable amount of uncertainty." They have also estimated the price premium of producing low-sulphur distillates. Several kinds of fuel come under this category, but they have studied particularly something called DMC grade fuel, with a maximum sulphur content of 2 per cent. The average market price for this type of fuel (1997-2001) was 151 euros. In comparison, during that same period the price of gas oil for heating, which is a similar fuel but mostly used ashore, and may contain more than 0.2 per cent sulphur, was l86 euros a ton. According to the consultants, DMC with at the most 0.2 per cent sulphur would cost about the same as heating oil. The extra cost would therefore be 35 euros a ton, whereas DMC with maximum 0.5 per cent sulphur was estimated to cost 175 euros per ton. It needs energy to desulphurize oil, so increased desulphurization at the refineries will also increase emissions of carbon dioxide. If half the quantity of the marine HFO sold in the EU (17 million tons) were desulphurized down to 0.5 per cent sulphur, the emissions of carbon dioxide would increase by 1.2 million tons. At present the European refineries are said in the report to emit about 163 million tons of carbon dioxide a year. The Commission has proposed changing the 1999/32/EC directive so that the marine HFO used by ships (including ferries) in the Baltic and North Seas should contain no more than 1.5 per cent sulphur. When presenting this proposal in November 2002, it also showed a cost/benefit analysis in which the economic gain from the measures was reckoned to be about 2.5 times greater than the costs. See AN 1/03. It would seem reasonable, in view of the fresh cost estimates for 0.5 per cent HFO, to make a new cost/benefit analysis in line with the parliament's proposal for changes in the 1999/32 directive. The political order means that the proposal is now in the hands of the Council of Ministers, who are expected to arrive at a common position during the Irish presidency of the EU, probably towards the end of June. Christer Ågren Estimated price premium of supplying low sulphur marine heavy fuel oil versus current quality (euro/ton fuel).
Parliament favours a tougher line, ministers are more cautious In response to the Commission's communication regarding an EU strategy for reducing emissions from seagoing ships, on December 4 the EU parliament adopted a report drafted by Caroline Lucas (UK) urging among other things that the Commission submit by the end of 2004 a proposal for NOx emission standards - based on the best available technology - for ships. In the matter of revision of directive 99/32/EC, parliament has requested the Commission to amend its proposal so as to make it accord with the outcome of its first reading, the aim of which was to reduce the emissions of sulphur from shipping by 80 per cent. This was accompanied by a request to the Commission to analyze urgently the costs and benefits of these more ambitious measures. Parliament is also calling on the Commission to come forward with proposals for all-EU economic instruments for reducing ships' atmospheric emissions generally. It notes with concern that so far only five EU member states have ratified the IMO's MARPOL Annex VI, which has thus failed to gain a sufficient number of ratifications to enable it to come into force. It calls on those that have not yet ratified - accession countries as well as member states - to do so as a matter of urgency. A few weeks later, the Council of Ministers adopted its conclusions in regard to the strategy communication. As expected, its attitude was considerably more cautious than the parliament's. The ministers emphasize the importance of pursuing international solutions through negotiations within the International Maritime Organization (IMO). It is somewhat of a paradox that the ministers of the EU countries should be urging the EU member countries that have not yet ratified Annex VI to do so as soon as possible. That would be mostly themselves. The ministers consider it essential to promote, in the forthcoming revision of MARPOL Annex VI, the adoption of a tighter global sulphur cap for marine heavy fuel oils as well as tighter NOx emission standards, urging the member countries to submit proposals for such standards. Recognizing the need to investigate specific EU moves concerning the reduction of NOx and greenhouse-gas emissions from ships, they also suggest that the Commission should consider making a proposal for tighter NOx standards by end of 2006 (should the IMO not have put forward any proposals by then), and to report on possible procedures for reducing ships' emissions of greenhouse gases. It should report in 2005. The need to promote emission-abatement technologies and the use of market-based instruments is underlined, with a request to the Commission to develop proposals "as appropriate." Christer Ågren The texts both of the parliament's report and the Council's conclusions are available at europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/transport.htm#3
Economic instruments studied Consultants have presented three "tentative recommendation," non of which can however be expected to result in any great reduction of emissions. Ships' emissions of air pollutants continue to rise in step with increasing transportation by sea - thus also increasing the contribution of shipping to the damage to health and the environment occasioned by these pollutants. But emissions from ships will assume relatively greater importance as emissions from land-based sources decline as a result of regulation. Within the next ten to fifteen years the emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides from ships trading in European seas are projected to equal all such emissions from land in the European Union. Realizing the need to reduce the emissions from shipping, the Commission has now started to consider action, but because of shipping's international character, it may be difficult to quickly introduce requirements with generally binding effect. The Commission has therefore had a study1 made of the possibility of using economic instruments. The consultants who made the study have divided such instruments into two separate categories: Emission-trading programs, in which participants trade "quantities" (typically emissions, or more specifically rights to emit). 1. Credit-based trading. Credit programs provide tradeable "credits" to facilities that voluntarily reduce emissions below the business-as-usual levels. For shipping, such a program would allow shipowners to reduce emissions and sell the emission-reduction credits to land-based sources assumed to be subject to a cap-and-trade program. 2. Benchmark trading. Benchmarking programs identify a specific emissions rate to apply to covered activities and require that the average emission rate from these activities shall not exceed the benchmark level. For shipping, a benchmarking emission rate would be set for ships subject to the program. This would then allow shipowners or operators to buy and sell credits between themselves, based upon a formula linking emission rates to credits. 3. Cap-and-trade. Here an aggregate cap on emissions is set for a given year by creating a total number of emissions "allowances," each of which provides its owner with the right to emit a unit (typically a ton) of emissions. Through the cap, total emissions are limited, not only emission rates. In the shipping context, a cap could be set for overall emissions within a given sea region, with individual ships allocated allowances and allowed to trade them amongst each other. 4. Taxation. In this context, the intention of the tax is to reduce shipping emissions, not to raise revenue. A fuel sales tax could be aimed at reducing the sulphur content of fuel. Similarly, a fuel-use tax would tax the sulphur in the fuel used by each ship. Alternatively, an emissions tax would tax the emissions of air pollutants from ships. 5. En-route charging. These charges are based on the distance travelled, and on the level of emissions from each ship. In principle, authorities could collect charges from all vessels using European waters. 6. Differentiated dues. Port and/or fairway dues could be differentiated according to a ship's emissions of various air pollutants. (A revenue-neutral such system has been in use in Sweden since 1998, to encourage reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx.) Programs could be designed to be either voluntary or mandatory. It is made clear that effective emissions monitoring and enforcement is critical under all type of programs. Methods must consequently be designed to monitor and report emissions (or other relevant operating data) from each participating ship, in order to measure compliance. In order to compare the feasibility of various approaches to reducing ships' emissions, each type of program has been evaluated on the basis of a number of criteria such as environmental performance, cost-effectiveness, administrative costs, distributional impacts, and legal/political feasibility. Not unexpectedly, each type of instrument has its advantages and disadvantages, which the consultants discuss fairly impartially. Which of them is to be preferred will depend very much on the weight given to the various criteria - and that can vary very greatly, according to the involved interests. In their conclusion, the consultants have discussed which of their alternatives seem most promising - emphasizing that these types of market-based instruments represent new thinking for the marine sector, and that it would therefore seem best to start with rather modest programs. As "tentative recommendations" they advance three alternatives: one credit based, one involving benchmarking, and a third based on voluntary differentiation of port dues. It is worth noting that all these are in fact voluntary programs, and that none of them can be expected to result in any marked emissions reduction. The first two will moreover need changes in current legislation for their adoption. The first (credit-based) one would also give rise to extra complication since it assumes that a cap-and-trade system for land-based emission sources will already be in place. Since the prime aim of launching instruments of this type will be to markedly reduce the emissions of pollutants from shipping, and so help the EU's environmental objectives as cost-effectively as possible, the alternative that fulfills that criterion ought to be the one to be preferred. Those environmentalist organizations that have examined the NERA report (among them the EEB and T&E) from this phpect, advocate first proceeding with distance-based en-route charges. But they also think it would be worthwhile to investigate certain other alternatives, namely, emissions taxing (or emissions charging), mandatory port/fairway dues, and cap-and-trade. The EEB and T&E also emphazise that economic instruments should be used primarily as a complement - rather than an alternative - to binding regulations. Although the consultants have appraised several alternatives, there may well be other kinds of economic instrument than those they have examined, which might also be suitable in this context. It might be equally worthwhile to consider whether it would have been better to deal with each pollutant separately, using different instruments for each, instead of relying on one single alternative. Christer Ågren Held up by countries delaying to ratify At the end of 2003, still only twelve countries had ratified MARPOL Annex VI, intended to limit the emissions of air pollutants from ships operating in international trade, despite several countries having promised, at a MARPOL meeting at the end of June, to do so quickly. The annex sets limits to the sulphur content of marine heavy fuel oils (with a global cap of 4.5 per cent) and to the emissions of NOx from new ship engines. They are however so weak as to be hardly likely to have any appreciable effect. It does on the other hand set a limit of 1.5 per cent sulphur in the heavy fuel oil of ships sailing in Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs) which should lead to reductions in the two designated areas, the Baltic and North Seas. The annex was adopted by the member countries of the IMO, the International Maritime Organization, more than six years ago, in the autumn of 1997. But to enter into force it needs the ratification of at least 15 states representing 50 per cent of the world's gross tonnage. The twelve countries that have ratified so far are the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Liberia, the Marshall Islands, Norway, Panama, Singapore, Spain and Sweden, which together represent well over 50 per cent of the required tonnage. Beyond that, ratification is obviously proceeding at a very slow pace -most countries having been giving very little priority to the matter. Moreover the very construction of the treaty permits still further delay - since the annex will not begin to apply until twelve months after fulfillment of the requirements for ratification. Further, there will be a special exception from the 1.5-per-cent sulphur requirement in SECAs during yet another year after the annex has entered into force. In practice that will mean that even if the ratification requirements should have been fulfilled by mid-2004, which is probably optimistic, the 1.5-per-cent sulphur limit won't start to apply in the Baltic until the middle of 2006, while the corresponding requirement for the North Sea will be delayed yet another year, until the summer of 2007. That is because the decision to make it a SECA was taken a year later than that for the Baltic. The weak requirements do not mean that proper ratification of Annex VI will be of little practical importance. For one thing the SECA limits, such as they are, will at least begin to apply, and for another ratification will open the way to further proposals and negotiations for tighter limits on fuels and emissions, as well as for setting up more SECAs. Christer Ågren Many countries falling short of their emission targets Fresh projections from the European Environment Agency1 indicate that the measures so far decided will only result in a reduction of 0.5 per cent in EU emissions of greenhouse gases between 1990 and 2010, as against the 8 per cent agreed under the Kyoto protocol. The outstanding cause will be a runaway increase in the emissions from transportation, especially on the roads. Even so, a reduction of one-half per cent assumes that Sweden and the UK will be cutting their emissions more than is required of them under the EU burden-sharing scheme. If these countries were merely to keep to their quotas, the EU's overall reduction would only amount to 0.2 per cent. Unless they take further measures, the other thirteen member countries will all fall short of their Kyoto targets. Denmark, Spain, Ireland, Austria and Belgium will actually be overstepping their quotas more than 20 per cent. The latest projections are much more pessimistic than last year's because Germany - alone responsible for about a quarter of the EU's emissions of greenhouse gases - is now forecasting a substantially smaller reduction than previously. But they take no account of the effects of some domestic policies and measures that are being worked out in the Commission-led European Climate Change Programme (ECCP), such as the emissions-trading scheme that is due to start in 2005. That scheme is expected to have a marked effect on emissions, although it is difficult to determine in advance just how great it will be. Then there will also be the effects of the additional domestic policies and measures (see box below), mainly in the energy sector, that have been announced by eleven member countries. If these are carried out, and have the expected effect, emissions may be reduced by a further 6.7 per cent over and above the 0.5 per cent deriving from existing measures, resulting in an overall decrease of about 7.2 per cent. But that would still be nearly 1 per cent short of the EU target. It assumes, moreover, that France, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Sweden and, in particular, the UK will reduce their emissions more than required. If these six countries do not overdeliver, the total EU reduction will only be 5.1 per cent, leaving a gap of 2.9 per cent to the target. Despite additional domestic policies and measures, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain project their emissions to still remain higher than allowed - and by more than 10 per cent in the cases of Denmark, Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands. No account is taken in the EEA projections of the effects of the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto protocol - international emissions trading, Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism - nor of the possibility for countries to affect part of their quota through the sequestration of carbon in "sinks" such as forests and agricultural land. To judge from information received from eight of the member countries, it appears however that very little use is going to be made of these possibilities - it being chiefly the Netherlands that is calculating on achieving part of its quota through measures taken outside the EU. The total EU cut from the use of carbon sinks is preliminarily projected to be no more than 0.3 per cent. By far the biggest obstacle to achievement of the Kyoto targets lies in the transportation sector, which is responsible for one-fifth of the EU's greenhouse-gas emissions - largely due, as the EEA points out, to fast-growing emissions from road traffic. Between 1990 and 2001 the emissions of carbon dioxide from transportation increased by 20 per cent, and greenhouse-gas emissions from the sector are projected to have risen to 34 per cent above 1990 levels by 2010. This does not include rapidly increasing emissions from international air travel, which is not covered by the Kyoto protocol. Per Elvingson
After marked decline, emissions now on way up Slovenia is the only one of the ten acceding or candidate countries in central and eastern Europe1 that is expecting to miss its target under the Kyoto protocol, according to projections compiled by the European Environment Agency.2 Under the protocol, by 2008-2012 Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia must each have cut their greenhouse-gas emissions by 8 per cent below a certain base year. Hungary and Poland have reduction targets of 6 per cent from their base years, to be met by the same dates.3 During the nineties the emissions of greenhouse gases declined markedly in the region as a whole. This was mainly due to the introduction of market economies and the consequent restructuring or closure of heavily polluting and energy-intensive industries. Estimates for the latest year for which complete data is available - usually 2001 - suggest that these ten countries' greenhouse-gas emissions, taken together, were then 36 per cent below their base year levels. The latest national projections show that six of the countries - Bul-garia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and the Slovak Republic - expect, as a result of measures already being implemented, to meet their Kyoto targets with ease. Latvia and Estonia anticipate having made the largest reductions of all by 2010 - 58.2 and 56.6 per cent - from the levels of their base year, 1990. With 6 per cent, Hungary would be making the smallest cut, but nevertheless just meeting its reduction target. Slovenia, on the other hand, expects its emissions to be 9.6 per cent higher in 2010 than in its base year, thereby missing its 8-per-cent reduction target by a substantial margin. Neither Lithuania nor Romania have submitted projections. A growing concern is the increase in greenhouse-gas emissions from transportation in these countries. Since the middle of the nineties, these emissions have been increasing strongly in central and eastern Europe, after a drop in the early part of the decade. In 2001, the ten countries' combined emissions of carbon dioxide from transportation had exceeded their 1990 level, for the first time, by 4 per cent. 1 The ten covered by the EEA report are the ten accession countries except Cyprus and Malta, plus the candidate countries Bulgaria and Romania. 2 Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2003. Environmental issue report 36. December 2003. Available on the EEA website: http://eea.eu.int 3 Countries with base years other than 1990 are Bulgaria (1988), Hungary (average 1985-87), Poland (1988), and Romania (1989). Cyprus and Malta have no targets under the protocol. Emissions coming down, slowly Two different targets have been decided for the emissions of carbon dioxide from new cars in the EU: 1. After having been threatened with obligatory standards, the European carmakers agreed in 1998 to "voluntarily" reduce emissions on an average by 25 per cent between 1995 and 2008. This will amount to lowering them from 186 to 140 grams per kilometre. The Japanese and Korean manufacturers will have until 2009 to comply. 2. Both the Council of Ministers and the EU parliament have set as a target that by 2010 emissions shall not exceed 120 grams per kilometre. The actual rate of progress can be read off from annual reports, of which the latest was published in February this year (COM(2004)78), showing that in 2002 emissions averaged 166 grams per km. That would be 11 per cent under the 1995 figure, but compared with 2001 the improvement was no more than 1 gram per km, a record low. Attainment of the 140 gram target for 2008-09 will call for a drop in emissions of 3 percentage points, or just about 4 grams/km every one of the remaining years. The Commission is however of the opinion that at least the European and Japanese carmakers are "on track." To attain 120 g/km by 2010, even greater annual reductions will be needed - close on 6 g/km during the remaining period. The Commission has however not given up hope, saying "it remains realistic to meet the objective by 2010 if the necessary measures are taken and all efforts are made." Most of the reduction so far can be traced to an increased proportion of diesel vehicles. Although they emit less CO2 than petrol-driven ones, they let out more in the way of nitrogen oxides and particles, so the Commission is not particularly enthusiastic. The agreement with the carmakers is considered a "cornerstone" for attainment of the 2010 target. The Commission hopes to enhance the effect by obligatory labelling of new cars fuel economy and CO2 emissions, as well as by fiscal instruments. Already in 2002 it had proposed that car taxation in the member countries should be based on emissions of CO2 (COM(2002)431). Parliament has approved, but the ministers have yet to make up their minds. The Commission has recently started negotiations for a new agreement with the carmakers for the time when the present one comes to an end. The German environment minister Jürgen Trittin has already called for legislation that would force manufacturers to reduce the emissions of CO2 from new vehicles to an average of 120 g/km by 2012. Commission's report on the current situation is available here. Favoured standards not included in proposal In February the EU parliament's environmental committee voted for the introduction of binding limits for arsenic, cadmium, nickel and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), as proposed by its rapporteur, Hans Kronberger, Austria. It also wanted to see the requirements for mercury strengthened. The limit values favoured by the environmental committee are based on the recommendations put forward by the Commission's working groups of experts in their "position papers," which however the Commission decided not to include in its proposal for a directive. That now only sets a requirement for monitoring when concentrations cross certain thresholds (see AN 3/03). The parliamentary committee wanted to set the term for compliance with the proposed limits to 2010, while yet allowing for extension of that deadline under certain conditions. The committee's decision was welcomed by EEB, the environmentalist umbrella organization. It expressed surprise, though, at liberal members of the parliament, as well as a UK labour party member, voting against the proposed standards. The directive is expected to come up for a first reading in parliament early in March. If accepted, it will be the fourth in a series of daughter directives to the framework directive on air quality that was adopted in 1996 to set uniform air-quality standards for the EU. The other three daughter directives regulate sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, particulate matter, lead, benzene, carbon monoxide and ozone. No agreement on a EU target for 2020 It was generally agreed at the European Conference for Renewable Energy in Berlin this January, instigated by the EU Commission, that 20 per cent of the EU energy supply could come from renewables. But that was not set as a target. The chief aim of the conference was to prepare a common attitude for the EU countries to take at the Renewables 2004 conference which is to take place in Bonn in June as a sequel to the UN meeting on sustainable development in Johannesburg in 2002. In the concluding recommendations from the Berlin conference - which was attended by ministers from ten EU and two accession countries - the EU institutions are urged "to start a political process of setting ambitious, time-bound targets." But no details were given. The conference did however conclude that "at least 20 per cent [by 2020] is achievable." The difficulty of agreeing on a specific target is blamed by many on the attitude of Loyola de Palacio, the energy commissioner, who has openly criticized the Kyoto protocol and didn't even attend the Berlin meeting. A target for 2020 is hardly likely to be discussed before the new EU Commission assembles this autumn. Warnings were also heard in Berlin that it would be difficult for the EU even to attain the accepted 12-per-cent target for renewable energy by 2010. Information: www.renewables2004.de Taking legal action The EU Commission is bringing legal action against nine countries for failure in adopting and implementing EU legislation aimed at improving air quality in the union. It concerns seven different directives: AIR QUALITY LIMITS FOR BENZENE AND CARBON MONOXIDE: Because they have failed to incorporate the directive into national law, the Netherlands and Greece are being arraigned before the Court of Justice. FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE FOR ASSESSING AND MANAGING AIR QUALITY: The member countries are obliged to submit specific information to the Commission. Italy is being brought before the court on account of incomplete data. NATIONAL EMISSION CEILINGS: The deadline for transposing this directive into national law was November 27, 2002. The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Greece have still not complied and are therefore being brought before the court. Belgium and Luxembourg have been given final written warnings because of failure to report properly. LARGE COMBUSTION PLANTS: The deadline for transposing the directive into national law was November 27, 2002. Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Italy, Greece and Spain have so far failed to comply, so the Commission has decided to refer them all to the court. It has also sent Germany a final written warning. SULPHUR CONTENT OF FUELS: By June each year, member states are required to report on the sulphur content of fuels used the previous year. Austria has yet to provide the necessary information for 2001 and is therefore being brought before the court. Belgium, Italy, Greece, Portugal and the Netherlands have received criticism concerning the directive on incineration of waste, and likewise Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy in respect of the directive limiting emissions of ozone depleting substances. Source: Commission press release, January 22, 2004. New pollution emission register Detailed information on individual plants' emissions of pollutants in the EU area is now available in an internet database. It is named Eper, the European polluting emission register, and run jointly by the EU Commission and the European Environment Agency. Initially, Eper will present data on emissions of 50 named pollutants from industrial facilities in 16 countries (the EU-15 plus Norway), and cover 56 industry sectors regulated under EU's integrated pollution prevention and control (IPPC) directive. The register gives data on some 10,000 plants. The data now published is for 2001. It will be updated to 2004 in 2006, when it will also include information on facilities in the 10 accession countries. The availability of such information about individual plants is deemed likely to lead to increased pressure on the owners of the facilities to cut down emissions. Web address: www.eper.cec.eu.int Environment in public procurement Following conciliation, the EU parliament and the Council of Ministers have agreed on two directives to regulate public procurement contracts in the union. This gives hope of more "green" purchasing of anything from office equipment to public transport vehicles to food. Contention has mostly revolved around the extent to which authorities can take social and environmental criteria into account in granting contracts. Under the new rules buyers are not obliged to accept the lowest bid, as the ministers wanted, but may also take into account production methods in any technical specifications laid down for a contract. Actually the new directives will in practice be unlikely to bring about any great change. There was nothing in the replaced ones to prevent environmental considerations being taken into account, and in a verdict of 2002 the European Court of Justice had laid down that such considerations could be taken into account in public procurement (AN 4/02). Actually "green" procurement is more likely to be curbed by lack of money. It is now valued at about 1.4 billion euros per year, or 14 per cent of the EU's GDP. Source: Environment Daily, December 4, 2003. VOCs in paints At their meeting last December, the EU environment ministers formally adopted a common position regarding a directive for limiting organic solvents in paints and varnishes (COM(2002)750). A political agreement had already been reached in October. Differing little from the Commission's proposal, the ministers' position means that manufacturers will have to reduce the amounts of organic solvents in paints, varnishes and vehicle refinishing products to maximum limits set out in the directive from January 2007. A second round of reductions would apply from January 2010. The Parliament will consider the proposal in a second reading within shortly. Exemptions for new members All accession countries except Cyprus have asked for temporary exemption from the requirements of the EU directive on energy taxation, which was concluded in October 2003. The exemptions the Commission now proposes to allow are similar to those that many of the present member countries have already been granted. The minimum requirements in the directive must be into force everywhere at the latest by 2012. Source: COM(2004)42. To be more effective The Commission wants to see an improvement in energy efficiency. A proposed new directive1 would require the member countries to have attained two energy savings targets and to ensure that suppliers of energy offer energy services for the period 2006 to 2012. Energy services are defined as integrated packages of energy and the energy-efficient technology needed to deliver these services. What is now proposed is a general end-use savings target of 1 per cent a year and a demand-side sectoral target requiring member states to improve energy use by at least 1.5 per cent a year, mainly through energy-efficient public procurement. To help member states achieve the targets and obligations and to make sure that progress can be monitored, the draft directive sets up a harmonised framework through common definitions, tools and methodology. Linking directive The Commission's proposal for linking the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto protocol with the emissions trading directive is to be taken up in the parliament's environmental committee in March. Alexander de Roo, the parliamentary rapporteur, has proposed in a draft report dropping the requirement that the Kyoto protocol must have come into force before those mechanisms can start to be used in the EU trading system. He also proposes that the clean development mechanism should be introduced in 2005, not 2008 as in the Commission's proposal. In compensation for these "industry friendly" proposals, de Roo would allow a country to fulfill no more than half its commitment through measures taken somewhere else. There is no such ceiling in the Commission's proposal. Efforts are now being made both in the council and the parliament to find a solution by which they would be so much in agreement that the directive would only have to be dealt with once in the parliament. The plenary session in April will be the last before the summer elections. Most of de Roo's proposals are acceptable to the member countries - except that for the ceiling on flexible mechanisms, which is opposed by many of them.
Urban environment The Commission has put forward a basis for discussion of a strategy for urban environment, which is supposed to be ready in the summer of 2005. Outstanding items to be taken up include the development and implementation of urban environmental management plans and sustainable urban transport plans by the 500 largest cities in the EU 25 (with more than 100,000 inhabitants). Co-generation directive adopted Following a compromise between the parliament and the council, the directive for the promotion of cogeneration (2004/8/EC) could finally be adopted on January 26. Although it sets no binding targets for the member states, it does contain a series of concrete measures in favour of cogeneration and provides a framework for national policies to increase its use. Back to top GMOs allowable as clean development Although negotiations for a second commitment period are due to start in 2005, no such discussions were held at COP9. At the hinth meeting of the adherents to the climate convention (COP9) in Milan last December, it was finally decided how the remaining items of the six-year-old Kyoto protocol were to be interpreted.
Side effects can be considerable Gains from reducing emissions of carbon dioxide have now been assessed. It doesn't only cost money to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. While several attempts have been made to determine what it will cost for the EU countries to fulfill their commitments under the Kyoto protocol, the savings that arise because of the lowered cost of meeting other environmental aims have tended to be overlooked.
Table 1. Emissions changes under the baseline scenario in 2010 as compared with 1990 (figures in per cent).
Figure 1. Changes in the emissions of various air pollutants (in %) in 2010 compared to the baseline scenario.
Table 2. Annual costs and benefits in 2010 of reducing CO2 emissions in Europe in line with the Kyoto targets (billion 1995 euros).
It would pay to make more of the cuts at home Buying CO2 abroad would mean the Netherlands taking a serious risk of not achieving the NOx ceiling for 2010, because few options are left to reduce more NOx," contends Johan Sliggers of the Dutch environment ministry in an article1 in Environment Science and Policy.
Millions of species at risk from global warming Climate change could drive more than a quarter of the world's land animals and plants to extinction. According to the estimates of a major study,1 the change projected to take place between now and 2050 will put 14-35 per cent of all species in several biodiversity-rich regions at risk. The authors believe there will be a high likelihood of extinctions due to climate change occurring in other regions as well.
Disappearing ice The cryosphere, all the frozen water and soil on the earth's surface, seems to be more responsive than thought to warming.
More profitable than thought An assessment made by the White House's Office of Management and Budget of measures taken in the US over the last ten years shows reducing emissions of air pollutants in the US to be more profitable than has previously been thought.
Low air pollution but slow on climate aims Austria gets mostly positive acclaim in the OECD's evaluation of its efforts in the environmental field, noting amongst other things its steady progress in reducing a range of air pollutants and its decoupling of the emissions of sulphur, nitrogen and carbon dioxide from economic growth. It has attained low levels in the intensity of pollution (a reflection of low energy intensity) and come to use renewable energy to a relatively high extent (bringing it up to 24 per cent of the total energy supply).
Clean Marine Award The Clean Marine Award is a new award scheme to promote low-emission shipping, launched by the EU Commission. The aim is to raise the profile of environmentally responsible EU shipping companies, shippers and ports, and help spread best practice EU-wide. It will also help support the promotion of shipping as an environmentally friendly transport mode.
Guide to Green Cars The American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, a non-profit research group in Washington DC, has ranked the cars that are best from the point of view of the environment.
It can be done The pharmaceuticals company Pfizer says it has saved 145 000 euros by paying staff up to 7 euros per day to leave their cars at home. The company introduced the scheme at its British centre in Sandwich, where each staff car park space costs 9 euros per day. By offering a small incentive to staff who walk, cycle or use public transport, the company has not only saved money but cut car use by 15 per cent.
Harmonized transport emissions standards Worldwide aligned emission standards for transportation are one step closer now that the European Union, China, Japan and the United States have agreed to jointly address air pollution emitted by vehicles. The agreement covers joint research on emissions and vehicle testing and the creation of a common scientific platform to measure and benchmark air pollution from traffic. Source: ENS, December 11, 2003.
Climate change is expensive According to experts of the UNEP's Finance Initiative, in 2003 the rising average world temperature, with associated extreme weather patterns, gave rise to damage estimated to have cost more than $60 billion. Costing most was the summer's heatwave in Europe, which according to UNEP caused 20,000 deaths and harvest losses worth more than $10 billion. Second came the floods along the Huai and Yangtze rivers in China between July and September. Some 650,000 dwellings were damaged, and overall losses put at almost $8 billion. The largest insured losses were however in the US, where a series of tornadoes struck the Midwest, leaving a trail of destruction that cost the insurers more than $3 billion. Source: ENS, December 11, 2003.
By A.J. McMichael et al. Published by the World Health Organization. Describes the context and process of climate change, its actual or likely effects on health, and how human societies and their governments should respond, with particular focus on the health sector. 333 pp. US$18.00. ISBN 92 4 156248 X. Order Number 1150551. Available from bookorders@who.int or from national retailers of WHO publications. Climate Change And The Kyoto Protocol (2003) By M. Faure, J. Gupta and A. Nentjes (Eds). Brings together researchers from the disciplines of law, economics, political science and sociology to analyse the instruments which have been set up to manage climate change and the institutional shifts that are required for the reduction of greenhouse gases. 384 pp. £75.00. Published by Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, Glensanda House, Montpellier Parade, Cheltenham Glos GL50 1UA UK. Our Future Climate (2003) An elementary overview of global climate science. Reviews climatic history and projects models of the future of global climate. Explores the scientific, economic and social implications of future climate change. Also reveals how extreme weather and climate events currently occurring around the globe may be glimpses of what may await future generations if human-induced climate change is not brought under control. 36 pp. 15.00 franc. Published by the World Meteorological Organization, 7 bis. ave de la Paix, P.O. Box 2300, 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. Also available in pdf format at www.wmo.ch/wmd/pdf/wmd2003.pdf Integration of environment into transport policy – from strategies to good practice (2003) An attempt from the EU Commission to provide inspiration and insights about how to promote integration of environmental considerations into transport policy. Available in pdf format (880 kB) here. Implementing Sustainable Urban Travel Policies: National Reviews (2003) Examines the experiences of eleven European countries (including Russia) and the US in designing and implementing sustainable urban transport policies. A series of national reports are included with a synthetic analysis that draws lessons on the design of successful policies, appropriate institutional and financial frameworks and innovative partnerships for effective implementation. 270 pp. 65 euros. ISBN 92-821-0305-6. Can be ordered from OECD Electronic Bookshop (www.oecd.org) or from OECD Turpin, P.O. Box 22, Blackhorse Road, Letchworth SG6 1YT, UK. Fifty Years of Transport Policy. Successes, Failures and New Challenges (2003) Transport policy may well have reached a turning point. It will not be possible to manage projected traffic growth using traditional methods that concentrate on increasing infrastructure capacity. New incentives, new pricing, and new instruments to better manage investment and demand are all required. In order to meet the emerging challenges, this publication outlines a number of strategic directions for transport policy in the coming years. 116 pp. 25 euros. Published by the European Conference of Ministers of Transport and available from the OECD, address as above. Reforming Transport Taxes (2003) Examines the economic principles for efficient systems of taxation and provides a framework for international comparisons of transport taxes and charges. It investigates the price and tax changes likely to result from the reform of transport charges to maximize efficiency, and their impact on motorists, hauliers and users of other transport services. It also assesses the impact of national differences in taxation on the competitiveness of hauliers internationally. 197 pp. 40 euros. Published by the European Conference of Ministers of Transport and obtainable from the OECD, address as above. |
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